PVR INOX Ltd. share price target

We have revised downward our FY20E & FY21E revenue estimate on account of temporary close down of movie houses and postponement of new releases due to corona crisis. PVR opened its 1st multiplex with 9 screen in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Q3FY20 revenue grew by 9% on a YoY basis owing to growth in all 3 segments. Box office grew by 7%, F&B; by 13% and Ad by 8%. Hollywood and Bollywood box office collection has increased by 47%...

PVRL's Q3FY20 revenue was in-line while EBITDA margin (adj. for AS-116 impact) was a beat to our forecast. Consolidated revenue of Rs9,127 mn grew by 8.6% YoY. Consolidated EBITDA margin of 19.7% grew by 20bps YoY vs. our forecast of 18.9%. PVRL has added 67 screens YTD and is confident of adding 90-100 screens for FY20. It targets to add 75+ screens in FY21 as well. We now factor addition of 80 screens (vs. 70 earlier) for FY20 and maintain our forecast for addition of 70 screens for FY21. We largely maintain our FY20/21 revenue/EBITDA forecast. We maintain ACCUMULATE...

PVR reported an in line operating performance for the quarter with stable growth, albeit weak regional content performance partially tempered the growth. Footfalls came in at 25.9 mn, up 0.8% YoY with box office revenues at | 453 crore, up 6.4%. Gross ATP was at | 210, down 1% YoY. SPH was at | 100, up 11.3% YoY, resulting in 12.6% YoY growth in F&B; revenues. Advertisement revenues grew 8% YoY (like-to-like growth at 2%). EBITDA (without impact of Ind-AS 116) came in at | 180 crore, up 9.7% YoY. Margins of 19.7% (up 20 bps YoY) were also ahead of our estimates of 19%. PAT...

We continue to believe that the multiplex industry is the best placed media segment for growth driven by traction in content performance. Both PVR and Inox remain key beneficiaries of a flourishing multiplex business, which is one of the proxies on rising urban discretionary consumption spends. We value PVR at 14.5x FY21E EV/EBITDA (ex-Ind-AS 116) and arrive at a target price of | 2200 with a BUY rating. We value Inox at 10x FY21E (ex-Ind-AS 116) EV/EBITDA (~30% discount to target EV/EBITDA multiple of PVR) to...

Low-budget movies continue to perform well, with Bala' garnering ~Rs1bn in collections. Three movies collected >Rs1bn vs. two in QTD Q3FY19. Hollywood movie collections are expected to remain subdued in Q3, due to a lack of big-franchise movie releases....

SPI cinemas Pvt Ltd got merged into PVR Ltd with effect from August 17th, 2019 by allocation of 1.6mn shares for the balance 28.3% stake. F&B; spend per head grew by ~38% YoY while Ad income rose by 16% (YoY). We forecast F&B; to witness good momentum in FY21. SPI cinema posted an average performance while ATP increased (Rs 162 vs Rs 152) due to strong traction from Hollywood movies. PVR to continue paying tax under the regular tax rate (34.94%) till the utilisation of available MAT credit....

PVR reported yet another strong quarter with robust box office performance boosting the topline and bottomline show. Footfalls came in at 29.3 mn, up 25% YoY and much better than our estimate of 20% growth with box office revenues at | 492 crore, up 31.6% (our estimate was 25% growth), The SPH at | 99, grew by 11% YoY, resulting in 38% growth in F&B; revenues. Advertisement revenues grew by 15.6% YoY (ex- SPI, growth at ~8.9%), better than our expectation of overall growth of 12% YoY. EBITDA (without impact of Ind AS116) came in at | 194.4 crore, up 56.8% YoY, and much...

SPI Cinema's amalgamation was approved by NCLT. PVR allotted 1.6mn shares for acquiring the balance 28% stake. ~Rs800mn available as of 30th Sep 2019. This was an excellent quarter for PVR with top-line increasing 37.3% YoY to Rs9,732mn (PLe of Rs8,832mn) buoyed by strong content (4/5movies crossed Rs1bn in box office collections). Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 250bps YoY to 20% and is the best ever margin performance since 1QFY16. Given 1) strong content pipeline 2) leadership position (~28% screen market share) and 3)...

Although growth in south India has been relatively slow, management expects a turnaround in the second half this year, which will likely provide additional support to earnings. We increase our EBITDA estimate by 9%/4% for FY20/21, given the strong second-quarter performance and managements focus on screen addition A multitude of factors including its healthy growth prospects, strong competitive positioning, continuous increase in ATP and bright opportunity to grow ad revenue justify premium valuations. These bode well from the top- and A multitude of factors, including healthy growth prospects, competitive positioning, continuous increase in ATP and a bright opportunity to grow advertisement revenue, justify premium valuations. Also, this could provide additional source of revenue to producers which can lead to investment in better and big Management highlighted a major trend in the industry South Indian movies dubbed in Hindi are performing exceptionally well.

Q1FY20 revenue grew by ~27% on a YoY basis owing to better box office and F&B; collections while Average Ticket Prices (ATP) witnessed a de-growth of ~6.5% YoY . Adoption of IND AS 116 for leases has brought immediate impact on key figures and ratios which will get normalised in coming years. F&B; spend per head grew by ~8% YoY while Ad income rose by 28% (YoY). We forecast F&B; to grow at ~11% for FY20&21. SPI cinema posted a decent 8% QoQ growth compared to a weak...