Downgrades

AGEL’s consolidated Q4FY25 EBITDA rose 31% YoY to Rs24bn (up 28% QoQ), led by 30% YoY uptick in operational capacity and improvement in CUF (Khavda achieved 32% in Q4), leading to 44% growth in sale of power.

We downgrade IIB to REDUCE from Add, cutting our TP by 9.4% to Rs725 (from Rs800). This is in view of the spate of top management resignations, including the MD & CEO, which should increase business/margin disruption including risk of another round of deposit run-down, impact on asset quality, middlemanagement attrition, and possibility of appointment of an RBI nominee on the Board as well as a PSU banker as MD & CEO (similar to Bandhan/RBL).

For Q4FY25, Net Interest Income (NII) came in at INR 6,101 Mn., up 8.5% YoY (-0.6% QoQ), below our estimates driven by higher-than-expected interest expenses. The Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) stood at INR 2,384 Mn, reflecting a 41.8% YoY decline (-36.1% QoQ) driven by sharp increase in employee and other operating expenses.

Supreme Petrochem’s Q4FY25 revenue stood at INR 15,390 Mn., down 1.5% YoY (+9.5% QoQ), was below our estimates led by weak volume; however, EBITDA came in at INR 1,446 Mn., down 17.4% YoY (+45.7% QoQ). Strong growth in EBITDA sequentially was driven by margin improvement of 234bps QoQ. Adj. PAT stood at INR 1,069 Mn., down 18.7% YoY (+49.8% QoQ), was above our estimates led by improved operating margins and higher other income.

With a 24% upside potential from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

With a 15% upside from the CMP, we maintain our long-term BUY rating on the stock.

We reiterate our BUY rating with a target price of Rs 722/share, implying a 10% upside from current levels.

Strong volume-driven revenue growth, as realisation stays soft 3% YoY due to aggressive push in key markets

Axis Bank’s Q4FY25 Net Interest Income stood at INR 1,38,105 Mn., a growth of 5.5% YoY (+1.5% QoQ). The Bank’s PPOP (Pre-Provisioning Operating Profit) for the quarter came in at INR 1,07,524 Mn., a growth of 2.1% YoY (+2.1% QoQ) led by operating efficiencies, while the Net profit declined 0.2% YoY (+12.9% QoQ) to INR 71,175 Mn.

Greenply Industries’ Q4 revenue/gross profit/EBITDA grew 8.2%/16.5%/18.1% y/y to Rs6.5bn/2.7bn/681m. Easing input cost helped the gross margin to inch up 297bps y/y to 41.5%.

Q4FY25 revenue grew 11% YoY as a strong volume of 14% was offset by 3% fall in realisation, on weak pricing in key operating regions

Beats EBITDA estimate on unexpected sharp improvement in MDF gross margin, despite weak realisations and higher timber prices

4QFY25 came in at the upper end of guidance. 15.6% YoY CC revenue organic growth in FY25 top quadrant performance

MOFS continued its steady performance in Q4FY25 amid volatile markets and despite impact of the new F&O regulations, with operating PAT at Rs5.2bn (+4% YoY; -1% QoQ). However, treasury loss of Rs7.43bn resulted in reported consolidated loss (including OCI) of Rs2.2bn.

SBI Life’s GWP for Q4FY25 stood at INR 240,016 Mn., a decline of 4.9% YoY (-4.0% QoQ), led by lower new business premium. The VNB Margin expanded by 213bps YoY (+351 bps QoQ) in Q4FY25 to 30.5%.

We recommend our HOLD rating on the stock.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

HUL’s Revenue for Q4FY25 stood at INR 1,56,700 Mn., up 3.0% YoY (-0.9% QoQ), largely in-line with our estimates.
EBITDA came in at INR 36,190 Mn. up 2.4% YoY (-2.1% QoQ), which was below our estimates mainly due to higher-than-expected employee costs.

We remain structurally positive on KPIT. While most auto ER&D players reported weak results, the company delivered an in-line performance amid challenging macro; however, no guidance for FY26 was given.