Both institutional and retail investors rely on analyst forecasts of the future outlook for companies, and the direction of their share prices. But unexpected positive or negative news (such as the June 4 election results) can also cause stock prices to shift. For instance, when ICICI Bank reported a positive revenue surprise of 66.1% on Saturday, April 27, its stock price in the next trading session went up by 4.7%.
Keeping track of predictions by institutional analysts is not easy. This is where Trendlyne’s Forecaster helps – it keeps track of analyst estimates for the company’s financials and target prices, providing a consensus. In case the company reports better or worse financials than expected, Forecaster keeps track of this in the surprises section.
In this Chart of the Week, we look at companies that delivered either positive or negative revenue surprises in FY24. We use a screener for stocks that posted surprises greater than 15% in their FY24 results. In the interactive chart above, green bubbles represent positive surprises, while red bubbles indicate negative surprises.
Financial firms beat revenue estimates, driven by demand for retail loans
ICICI Bank’s revenue for FY24 exceeded estimates, thanks to loan growth from the retail segment over the past year. Revenue from the retail segment surged 29.7% YoY in FY24, and the treasury segment also grew by 34.4% YoY, as demand for treasuries increased with high interest rates. ICICI Bank outperformed estimates by 66.1%.
Retail-focused NBFC Poonawala Fincorp saw its total assets under management rise by 55% YoY to Rs 25,003 crore, with disbursements more than doubling in FY24. To further boost growth in the retail segment, the company launched a co-branded credit card in partnership with IndusInd Bank. Similarly, another NBFC, Piramal Enterprises posted a revenue growth of 12% YoY at Rs 10,020.3 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 31.1%.
Meanwhile, two insurance players, SBI Life Insurance Company and Max Financial Services (MFSL) beat revenue estimates for FY24 by 21.9% and 20.1% respectively. These companies benefited from rising awareness which boosted insurance protection demand.
Holding companies, which derive a major chunk of revenue from their insurance business, also reported estimate-beating revenue. Aditya Birla Capital and Bajaj Finserv posted revenue growth of 14.4% and 34.5% in FY24 beating estimates by 27.9% and 21.9% respectively.
Realty developers see robust growth in presales, but miss estimates due to delayed completions
Real estate developer Sobha saw its presales rise by 28% YoY to Rs 6,600 crore, driven by a 19% improvement in realisation to Rs 11,000 per square foot and a 7% increase in volumes. However, the company’s annual revenue of Rs 3,097 crore in FY24 was 21.9% below Forecaster estimates because of delays in project completion.
Mahindra Lifespace Developers’ revenue in FY24 declined 57.7% YoY to Rs 279.1 crore, missing the Forecaster estimate by 50.8%. The Mahindra Group’s real estate arm witnessed its net profit decline 3.1% YoY due to higher construction expenses and inventory buildup from under-construction projects.
Similarly, realty companies Signatureglobal (India) and Sunteck Realty also missed Forecaster estimates by 38.4% and 51.4% respectively.
Industry outperformer TVS Motors beat Forecaster estimates, while JBM Auto misses as its components business lags
Two-wheeler manufacturer TVS Motor Company saw its annual revenue in FY24 rise by 22.2% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates by 24.2%. The company outperformed its industry with 34% and 17% YoY growth in the domestic motorcycle and scooter segments, respectively, compared to industry growth of 14% and 13% YoY driven by demand for premium vehicles. Analysts at Axis Securities expect this momentum to continue, buoyed by the launch of multiple products across all its segments over the next few quarters.
CEO of TVS Motor Company, K.N. Radhakrishnan, said, "The rural market is slowly and steadily changing; I'm able to see some recovery happening." He expects this recovery because of forecasts of a normal monsoon this year.
Meanwhile, auto components maker JBM Auto fell short of analyst expectations, with annual revenue missing Forecaster estimates by 22.3%. This shortfall was due to a 2.3% YoY decline in revenue from its component division, totalling Rs 2,978.7 crore in FY24. However, the company in the past few years has emerged as a major player in the electric bus domain. Its electric bus segment, which contributed Rs 1,741.2 crore in FY24, witnessed growth of 217% YoY.
