Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. share price target

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research ONGC declared its Q1FY19 results that were below our estimates on the profitability front. The quarter saw nil subsidy burden while net realisations were at US$74.2/bbl (above our estimate). As a result,...

2 August 2018 ONGCs reported EBITDA of INR147b (+49% YoY, +29% QoQ) was in line with our estimate. DD&A; of INR50.3b was below our estimate of INR70b due to lower write-offs. PAT came in at INR61.4b (+58% YoY, +4% QoQ), marginally below our estimate of INR63b due to (a) lower other income of INR6.5b (est. of INR22b; -24% YoY, -83% QoQ), led by lower dividend income and lower cash balance and (b) a higher tax rate of 36% (v/s 28.2% in 4QFY18 and 34.6% in 1QFY18), as loan taken for HPCL acquisition does not qualify for tax shield. of USD71.4/bbl; +45% YoY, +11% QoQ). ONGCs realization premium to Brent in 1QFY19 stood at USD2/bbl v/s historical trend of USD1/bbl. Subsidy sharing was nil, and we model the same for FY19/20. 1QFY19 oil sales stood at 5.

Oil volume saw a dip of 3% YoY to 6.2bcm, while gas production volume increased 2.2% to 6.1bcm. Net oil realization improved to US$66.7/bbl vs US$54.9//bbl, in line with our estimate. We are keeping oil production growth flattish at 25.5mmt & 4% growth in gas to 25.5bcm against company's guidance of 25.9mmt/25.5bcm. We expect its net oil realization to rise to US$60/bbl for FY19/FY20E from US$57.3 in FY18. We cut TP to Rs214 from Rs227. Maintain BUY. Key Highlights and Investment Rationale Higher expenses, dry well write-offs hurt PAT growth...

Our TP is Rs 279/sh (10x Mar-20E standalone + OVL EPS and Rs 41 from investments). Maintain BUY. ONGCs 4QFY18 revenue was at Rs 239.7bn (+ 10.4% YoY), led by higher oil realisations at Rs 4,290/bbl (+16.6%), and increase in gas sales volumes at 4.8bcm (+3.5% YoY). Lower oil sales volumes (-3.8% YoY) partially offset the growth. EBITDA stood at Rs 113.8bn up 69.2% YoY. However, higher exploration write-offs (Rs 30.4bn, +39% YoY) dragged PAT to Rs 59.16bn (+36.3% YoY).

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research ONGC declared its Q4FY18 results that were below our estimates on the operational front. Revenues increased 10.4% YoY to | 23969.8 crore and came in largely in line with our estimates. The net realisation was at US$66.7/bbl, in line with our estimates EBITDA during the quarter came in at | 11382.2 crore, below our estimates of | 12937.1 crore. Lower EBITDA was mainly on account...

30 May 2018 ONGCs reported EBITDA of INR114b (+69% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate of INR131b, led by marginally lower realization and higher opex. Other expenditure was higher at USD9.8/boe in 4QFY18 v/s USD6.6/boe in 4QFY17 and USD7.0/boe in 3QFY18, led by higher work over costs, water injection costs, transportation costs, and repair & maintenance cost. PAT of INR59b (+36% YoY, +18% QoQ) was slightly ahead of our estimate of INR57b, led by higher other income of INR37b (est. of INR14b; -17% YoY, +231% QoQ), despite higher interest cost of INR5.9b (est. of INR2.5b; +86% YoY, +92% QoQ). Net realization grew 21% YoY (+10% QoQ) to USD66.7/bbl in 4QFY18. Subsidy sharing was nil; we model nil subsidy sharing for FY19 and FY20 as well. Oil sales declined 3.8% YoY (-0.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research ONGC declared its Q3FY18 results, which were below our estimates on the profitability front. Revenues increased 14.9% YoY to | 22995.9 crore and were above our estimate of | 21916.3 crore. Net realisation was at US$60.6/bbl, slightly lower than our estimate of US$61.1/bbl EBITDA during the quarter increased 20.8% YoY to | 12524.7 crore, above our estimate of | 12119.1 crore However, reported PAT | 5014.7 crore, which increased 15.2% YoY,...

ONGC's Q3FY18 reported a strong operating performance led by higher gas volume and oil realization. However due to higher DDA and dry well costs, net profit took a significant hit, below our estimates. Oil volume saw a marginal dip of 1% YoY to 6.3bcm, while gas production volume continued its uptrend and grew 4% Y to 6.3bcm. EBITDA increased a robust 20.8% YoY to Rs125 bn but due to 25% rise in DDA, PAT grew just 15% to Rs50 bn....

Topline rose 15% as crude oil realisation (nominated) in rupee terms increased 12.2% to Rs 3922 per barrel. In dollar terms ONGC crude oil realisation (nominated) was up 16.9% to USD 60.58 per barrel in Q3FY'18. Gas price was 15.6% higher in Q3FY18 to $ 2.89 per mmbtu compared to $ 2.5 per mmbtu in Q3FY17 Crude oil production fell 1% in Q3FY18 to 6.34 MMT compared to Q3FY17. This includes 5.196 MMT from domestic operations and 0.778 MMT from JVs and 0.365 MMT of condensate. ONGC gas production rose 4.2% to 6.277 BCM in Q3FY'18. This includes 5.997 BCM from domestic...

Our TP is Rs 290/sh (10x Dec-19E standalone + OVL EPS and Rs20 from investments). Maintain BUY. ONGCs 3QFY18 revenue was at Rs 229.96bn (+14.9% YoY), led by higher oil realisations at Rs3,922/bbl (+12.2%), increase in gas sales volumes at 5bcm (+7.3% YoY), and higher gas sales realisation at USD 2.89/mmbtu (+8% YoY). EBITDA stood at Rs 125.25bn up 20.8% YoY and up 6% QoQ.