Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. share price target

Our TP is Rs 184/sh (8x Dec-19E standalone + OVL EPS and Rs. 31 from investments). Maintain BUY. We believe that the recent trend of the government to allow full pricing and use buybacks and/or dividends to raise cash (which also benefits the minority shareholders), is the likely way forward. We maintain our view that the government will not reverse the reform process by asking domestic Exploration and Production (E&P;) companies to bear the subsidy. Thus, we do not foresee any subsidy burden on the domestic E&P; companies.

Topline rose 20% as crude oil realisation (nominated) in rupee terms increased 26.5% to Rs 4786 per barrel. In dollar terms ONGC crude oil realisation (nominated) was up 13.6% to USD 66.38 per barrel in Q3FY'19. Gas price was 16.3% higher in Q3FY19 to $ 3.36 per mmbtu compared to $ 2.89 per mmbtu in Q3FY18 Crude oil production fell 4.8% in Q3FY19 to 6.036 MMT compared to Q3FY18. This includes...

Strong operating performance: ONGC reported Q3FY19 standalone EBITDA and PAT of Rs165.7bn (PLe: Rs154bn; +32% YoY) and Rs82.6bn (PLe: Rs65.6bn; +65% YoY), respectively. EBIDTA beat was due to lower other expenses, which included forex gains of Rs7.5bn. PAT beat was due to higher other income of Rs22.2bn, which included dividend income from IOCL. Higher realization drive operational performance: For Q3, operational profitability was led by higher crude oil price realization of US$66.4.1/bbl (9MFY19...

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC), a Maharatna and most valuable public sector enterprise in India. It is the largest crude oil & natural gas Company contributing around 70% to Indian domestic production. Crude oil is the raw material used by downstream companies like IOC, BPCL and HPCL to produce petroleum products like Petrol, Diesel, Kerosene, Naphtha, and Cooking Gas-LPG. ONGC ranks 11th among global energy majors (Platts). It is the only public sector Indian company to feature in Fortune's Most Admired Energy Companies' list. ONGC ranks 18th in Oil and Gas operations' and 183rd overall in Forbes Global 2000. Acclaimed for its Corporate Governance practices, Transparency International has ranked ONGC 26th among the biggest publicly traded global giants. It is most valued and largest E&P; Company in the world, and one of the highest profit-making and dividend-paying enterprises....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research ONGC declared its Q2FY19 results, which were above our estimates on the profitability front. The quarter witnessed nil subsidy burden with net realisations at US$73.1/bbl (above our estimate). As a result,...

Our TP is Rs 182/sh (8x Sep-20E standalone + OVL EPS and Rs 33 from investments). Maintain BUY. ONGCs 2QFY19 revenue was at Rs 279.89bn (+ 47.6% YoY, +2.9% QoQ), led by higher oil price realisation at Rs 5,117/bbl (+55.6% YoY, +6.77% QoQ), and increase in gas price at USD 3.6/mmbtu, up 21% YoY. Lower oil sales volumes 5.43mmt (-6.35% YoY) has partially offset sales growth. EBITDA stood at Rs 157.89bn up 50.8% YoY. Other income was Rs 23.94bn (+ 23.9% YoY), inclusive of a dividend income of Rs 12.61bn. Thus, PAT was up 61.1% YoY and 34.5% QoQ to Rs 82.65bn.

ONGC's Q2FY19 was in line with our expectation at operating level while PAT was a beat on account of higher than expected other income. Net sales was up by 47.6% YoY to Rs280bn owing to 43% rise in net oil realization and 1.8% growth in gas volume, partially offset by 6% drop in oil production volume. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 50.8% YoY to Rs158bn while net profit rose 61.1% YoY to Rs82.6bn driven by 24% YoY rise in other income to Rs23.9 bn. We keep our estimates unchanged and expect the company to see an EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 13%/16% during FY18-FY20E. Market is concerned about the possible subsidy share in the election year, which is likely to get away with expected fall in oil prices. We retain our TP at Rs204 and maintain BUY....

5 November 2018 ONGC reported net operating income of INR280b (est. 301b, +48% YoY, +17% QoQ), lower than our estimate due to higher-than-expected discount of 2.4% to Brent for oil price realization and lower oil sales. EBITDA came in at INR158b (est. Depreciation including write- offs stood at INR48.5b (est. 63.6b, flat YoY, -23% QoQ), lower than our estimate due to lower write-offs. Other income stood at INR23.9b (est. Despite lower-than-expected EBITDA, PAT stood at INR82.6b (est.

Topline rose 43% as crude oil realisation (nominated) in rupee terms increased 53.5% to Rs 4792 per barrel. In dollar terms ONGC crude oil realisation (nominated) was up 47.6% to USD 71.48 per barrel in Q1FY'19. Gas price was 23.4% higher in Q1FY19 to $ 3.06 per mmbtu...

ONGC's Q1FY19 results were a miss to our estimates on the back of one-off forex loss of Rs9 bn. Adjusting to this, result is largely in line with our estimates and above consensus estimates. Revenue was up by 42.7% YoY to Rs272bn, EBITDA grew by 49.1% YoY to Rs147bn while net profit rose 58.2% YoY to Rs61bn. Positively, the company didn't bear any subsidy and it's net oil realization grew 40.1% YoY to US$71.5/bbl, highest since Q2FY12. However, oil volume declined 3.5% YoY to 6.2mmt, while gas production volume was up by 3.2% YoY to 6.2bcm. We are raising net oil realization to US$69/63/bbl in FY19/FY20E from US$60/bbl. We raise our TP to Rs236 from Rs214. Maintain high conviction BUY....