Oil India Ltd. share price target

OIL India delivered a relatively muted Q3, with a 4%/23% YoY decline in standalone EBITDA/PAT to INR 22.6/INR 12.2bn, missing I-Sec’s estimates of INR 25.9/INR 16.2bn. Higher forex loss, lower other income and marginally lower gas realisations dragged earnings in Q3. Consol.

Oil India clocked Q3FY25 SA EBITDA of Rs21.3bn – a 5% miss, mainly on the 3% revenue miss due to lower realizations, crude sales. SA PAT of Rs12.2bn missed our estimates by 19% on lower Other Income.

Oil India clocked Q2FY25 SA EBITDA of Rs21.8bn – an 11% miss, mainly due to higher provisions and lower-than-expected output.

Less downstream demand due to a maintenance shutdown kept Oil India’s Q2 operational results muted. Ahead, we expect strong volume growth in the oil & gas segment.

Amid weak crude oil prices, the share price of Oil India (OINL) has declined 22% in the last 5 weeks. However, we reiterate our BUY rating on the stock.

At its analyst meet, Oil India (OINL) management reiterated its target of
increasing production from 6.5mmtoe in FY24 to 9mmtoe by FY26. Oil
production is expected to ramp up from 3.4mmt in FY24 to 3.8mmt and
more than 4mmt in FY25/FY26, while gas production is likely to be 5bcm by
FY26.

Oil India’s (OIL)’s adjusted EBITDA/PAT of INR 25.4bn/ INR 20.3bn jumped 8/13% YoY, with FY24 standalone EBITDA/PAT of INR 99/79bn (EBITDA flat YoY/PAT +16% YoY), respectively.

Oil India’s (OIL) adjusted EBITDA of INR 23.3bn was down 13% and PAT of INR 16.1bn was up 4%, ahead of I-sec estimates of INR 22.9bn EBITDA and INR 15bn PAT. Consolidated EBITDA of INR 22.7bn and PAT of INR 14bn declined sharply by 54% and 50% YoY respectively, due to fire at Numaligarh Refinery (NRL) leading to shutdown of the plant for 75 days and a loss of INR 776mn for the quarter (vs Q4FY23 PAT of INR 7.7bn).

Oil India’s (OIL) standalone EBITDA / PAT grew 21% / 10% YoY respectively in Q4FY23, but missed our EBITDA estimates by 13% even as lower depreciation/interest costs helped net earnings come in line.