Oil India Ltd. share price target

Oil India's (OIL) Q1FY18 revenue and EBITDA was completely in-line with IDBIest while PAT is below expectation due to lower than estimated other income. OIL's revenue/EBITDA grew 5%/1.3% YoY to Rs23.3/Rs8.7 bn while PAT declined 8.9% YoY to Rs4.5 bn. Oil production volume rose 6% YoY to .831mmt while gas volume declined 1% to 724mmscm. Oil realization grew 12.3% YoY to US$48.4/bbl. Rise in crude oil volume rose to highest level in last ten quarters, which is a key positive. Further, oil and gas price are expected to rise in coming quarters which...

Revenue grew by 2.49% to Rs. 2435.53 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.

OIL India, is a leading Oil & Gas Navratna' company engaged in exploration, development, production and transportation of crude oil and natural gas. It is India's second largest Oil & Gas Company having over 5 decades of experience across Oil & Gas value chain. OIL has 101694 sq.km of licensed area for oil & gas exploration having global presence. The company has strong oil and gas reserve base with 2P...

Revenue increased by 5.96% to Rs. 2376.37 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it grew by 7.1% when compared with Q3FY16.

Oil India (OIL) reported 1% YoY decline in EBITDA to Rs 7.3bn. Impact of higher crude realisation ( 20%) was negated by lower gas prices (-35%). However, lower tax rate boosted PAT to Rs 4.5bn ( 18%).

Higher volume sparks light; Profits from Gas business disappoints Oil India's revenue increased 4.5% YoY to Rs24.5 bn owing to higher oil volume and realization offset by lower gas volume and price. Oil production volume grew 3.1% YoY to .831mmt (+2.5%...

OILs share price has moved up by 29% over the past 6-months led by stable crude prices and increase in IOCs share price (contributes Rs 97/sh in OILs fair value). However, OIL is still trading at significant discount to ONGC. Our SOTP target is Rs 470/sh (7.5x 12 months rolling forward standalone core EPS Rs 212/sh from investments). Maintain BUY.

Oil India's (OIL) Q2FY17 results were largely in line with our estimates where higher volume was offset by higher other expenses. OIL's revenue/EBITDA/PATdeclined7.9%/9%/17.7% YoY to Rs23/8.4/5.8 bn due to lower oil volume and realization offset by better gas volume. Oil production volume saw a decline of margin 1% YoY to .81mmt (+1.4% QoQ) while gas volume increased 5.8% YoY to 743mmscm (+1.6% QoQ). Also, its net oil realization dipped to US$44.6/bbl in Q2FY17 from US$46.4/bbl in Q2FY16 (better than IDBIest). We are raising TP...

Oil India Ltd (OIL) reported 29% YoY decline in EBITDA to Rs 8.6bn mainly led by lower net oil realisation (-21% in INR terms). Impact of lower other income and higher depreciation was negated by lower tax rate. APAT was Rs 4.9bn (-34%). Crude prices were highly volatile in FY16 and ranged from US$ 62/bbl in 1QFY16 to US$ 33/bbl in 4QFY16. Crude volumes will remain flat in the near term, however, OIL may get YoY higher crude realisations in 2HFY17. OIL’s profits remain largely unaffected if crude is in the range of ~US$ 47/bbl to ~US$ 57/bbl. However, at lower crude prices, negatives from lower net realisation outnumber the benefits from reduction in oil under-recovery. We expect no subsidy sharing by upstream players for crude below US$ 47/bbl. Natural gas price has been reduced 20% to US$ 3.4/mmbtu for 1HFY17.

OIL has moved up by 29% over the past 6-months led by strengthening of crude prices and increase in IOC’s share price. Investment in IOC contributes Rs 91/sh in OIL’s fair value (by assigning 20% discount to IOC’s CMP). Factoring higher value from investments in IOC, They revise SOTP target from Rs 430 to Rs 455/sh (7.5x FY18E standalone core EPS + Rs 206/sh from investments). Maintain BUY.

FY16 has been a mixed bag for OIL. The 45% drop in oil prices was negated by the reduction in OILs share towards oil under-recovery by 97% to Rs 11bn. As a result, EBITDA was flat at Rs 36.1bn ( 2% YoY).