NTPC Ltd. share price target

NTPC's risk averse regulated business model provides earnings visibility (expect a 19% PAT CAGR over FY2021E-FY2023E) as robust commercialisation target (5-6 GW annually) would drive strong growth in regulated equity base. We expect gradual re-rating led by improving operational performance (PAF at 90% plus and higher PLF for coal-based power plants), 15% CAGR guidance over FY21-23 in regulated equity, and better mix of renewable energy to allay concern of ESG. Management is confident to reduce receivable to Rs. 16,000 crore by Q4FY2021 (versus Rs. 19,164 crore in Q2FY2021) as discoms are expected to clear dues of power generation...

NTPC Q2 PAT declines 7.74% to Rs 3436 cr and board approves share buyback worth Rs 2,275 cr, in line with the estimates The board of directors of NTPC on Monday (26 October) approved a buyback proposal. The company aims to buyback upto 19.78 crore shares (2% of the total number of fully paid-up equity shares) at Rs 115 per share. The buyback will be on a proportionate basis through a tender offer route. The company has fixed 13 November 2020 as the record date for the purpose of ascertaining the eligibility of...

NTPC has announced a Buy Back scheme for an aggregate amount not exceeding INR 2,276 crores offering 197,891,146 shares at a price of INR 115 per share. The buyback will be on a proportionate basis under the tender offer route. Company has fixed 13th November, 2020 as the record date for the purpose of ascertaining the eligibility of shareholders for Buyback of equity shares. Offering to Small Shareholders (up to 2 lakhs)...

Reported revenues came in at | 24677.1 crore up 8.4% YoY. This was in line with our expectations. Generation came in to the tune of 67.6 billion units (BUs) in Q2FY21 vs. expectations of 67.3 BUs. On the other hand, energy sold came in 62.8 BUs vs. expectations of 62.6 BUs. PLFs of coal plants were at 64.3% in Q2FY21 vs. 58.2% in Q1FY21. As of Q2FY21, commercial capacity was at 50355 MW whereas installed capacity was at 51155 MW. The company has also made strong progress on the coal mining side as it expects to mine 15 million tonnes (MT) in FY21. The management has...

NTPC's Q2FY2021 PAT at Rs. 3,505 crore (up 7.4% y-o-y) was in-line with our estimate of Rs. 3,502 crore as higher-than-expected higher surcharge income at Rs. 657 (up 20% q-o-q) and increased regulated equity (up 19.3% y-o-y) was offset by FC underrecoveries of Rs. 271 crore. Management has guided for strong commercialisation of 5,566MW for FY2021, 7,336MW for FY2022, and 5,016 for FY2023 and expects fixed cost under-recoveries to reduce to Rs. 200 crore-220 crore by March 2021. NTPC board has approved buyback of equity shares not exceeding 19.8 crore shares (2% of the total paid up equity share capital) at a price of Rs. 115/share (29% premium...

NTPC Ltd. owns and operates power generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards throughout India. The company generates power from coal, gas, liquid fuel, hydro, solar, nuclear, wind and renewable energy...

minority interest de-grew by 6% to Rs 2890 crore in Q1 June 2020 over Q1 June 2019. NTPC reported exceptional cost of Rs 836.76 crore in Q1 June 2020. The PSU enterprise said that in accordance with the announcement of Government, to allow a rebate of 20%-25% on the capacity charges, the company has approved Rs 1510.47 crore for the 2020-21. During the...

Maintain NTPC's reported S/A PAT (including the impact of a rebate) was down 5% YoY to INR24.7b (v/s our est. PLF of coal-based plants fell to 58.2%, v/s 73.9% in the previous year, weighed by lower power demand. Interest cost at S/A was also impacted by INR2.1b on account of the The co.s numbers also included an INR2.2b CSR contribution in the current quarter related to COVID-19 care packages NTPC plans to reach ~130GW capacity by 2032. NTPC expects its capitalization run-rate to be at 56GW p.a. for the next three to four years. The balance is to be paid only when DISCOMs withdraw their NTPC has discussed the possibility of a buyback in its previous board meetings Outstanding overdues have reduced to INR145b (currently) from INR164b at June-end. This provides strong With the pickup in capitalization, which was partly hampered due to coal availability issues, we expect a regulated equity CAGR of ~11% over FY2023.

NTPC reported operationally decent Q4FY20 results. Despite lockdown impact in March 2020, the company posted better generation data vis--vis expectations. NTPC met its capacity addition target in FY20 and has aggressive additions plans in FY21-22E. Optically, PAT looks below estimates, which is on account of higher tax outgo on account of settlement...

Maintain Adj. for one-offs and FC u/r, NTPC's S/A PAT came in at INR33.0b (4% up YoY and 8% higher than our est. Reported PAT, however, came in at INR12.5b (down 71% YoY) given the the Vivad se Vishwas scheme and b) INR8b impact on account of adj. Overall, FY20 JV profit declined to INR4b in FY20 v/s INR6.7b in FY19 on account of losses at NTPC expects capitalization momentum to continue and targets ~5.9GW for commercialization in FY21. We remain conservative and build-in commercialization of 3.6GW Muted power demand, coupled with production ramp-up at Coal Indias mines, has led to an increase in coal stocks at power plants. However, production at these mines has improved, leading to recovery in coal stocks at For FY20, FC u/r stood at ~INR2.5b (v/s INR8b in FY19). This provides strong With the pickup in capitalization, which was partly hampered due to coal availability issues, we expect a regulated equity CAGR of ~12% over FY2023.