NTPC Ltd. share price target

NTPCs 2QFY17 recurring PAT of Rs 23.4bn was in line with our estimates. All the plants (except Barh I) achieved PAF of over 83% leading to negligible under-recovery in fixed cost. Gross generation at 60.7bn units grew marginally by 1%YoY.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NTPC reported its Q2FY17 results wherein operationally the performance seems to be better than estimates on the sales and EBIDTA front. Net sales after adjustments of prior period sales, electricity duty and income tax adjustments came in ahead of our estimates of | 18940.5 crore vs. our estimate of | 17872 crore EBITDA at | 5094 crore came in above our estimate of | 4986 crore mainly on account of better revenues (higher recovery of fixed costs)...

NTPC’s 1QFY17 recurring PAT at Rs 24.0bn (6%YoY growth) was 8% ahead of our estimates due to (1) Higher incentive income (Rs 1.5bn in 1QFY17 as against Rs 0.8bn for 1QFY16), and (2) Impact of change in accounting standard to Ind AS. Gross generation at 64.6bn units grew by 10%YoY. Coalbased PLF stood at 81.4% for 1QFY17 (vs. 77.6% for 1QFY16). Average tariff realization was Rs 3.11/kwh for 1QFY17 as against Rs 3.25/kwh for 1QFY16 due to lower coal imports as well as rationalization of coal linkages.

Valuation: We increase our TP to Rs 191 to factor in (1) Roll forward of target P/B to Jun-18E from Mar-18E, and (2) An increase in target P/B at 1.5x (from 1.4x earlier).Maintain BUY.

 

 

NTPC reported Q1FY17 results wherein operationally the performance seems to be better than estimates on the sales and EBIDTA front. The company adopted Ind AS accounting in Q1FY17. Net sales after adjustments of prior period sales, electricity duty and income tax adjustments came in ahead of our estimates of | 18881.5 crore vs. our estimate of | 18353.8 crore.EBITDA at | 5243.2 crore came in above our estimate of | 5208.4 crore mainly on account of lower fuel costs and higher-thanexpected revenues. EBITDA margins came in at 27.8% in Q1FY17.

Valuation: With strong capacity addition targets in FY17E-18E, they expect NTPC’s capacity to reach 52888 MW in FY18E from 45500 MW in FY16. Coupled with this strong focus on renewables, capacity addition in the next five to 10 year, NTPC offers the best play to ride the ongoing solar power boom and recovery in the conventional power sector. Also, it commands relatively a strong balance sheet profile and has enough room to achieve its set milestones, going ahead. We upgrade the target multiple and now value the company at 1.5x its FY18E ABV to arrive at a fair value of | 188.

Higher PBT Aided by Better Operating Margins: On account of higher PLF and lower fuel cost, NTPC's operating margin rose by 667 bps to 27.3%, which led to higher PBT (+65.9% yoy) to Rs30.7bn. Reported PAT increased by 4.1% yoy to Rs23.4bn, as PAT for 1QFY16 (Rs22.43bn) included I-T refund worth Rs8.41bn. Notably, effective tax for 1QFY17 stood at 23.0% vs. negative tax rate of 22.7% in 1QFY16. PBT adjusted for...

NTPC Ltd. is India's largest energy conglomerate. It operates in segments, including generation and other businesses. It generates and sells bulk power to state power utilities and its other business includes providing consultancy, project management and supervision, oil and gas exploration and coal mining. The company is also engaged in consultancy, power trading, training of power professionals, rural electrification, ash utilization and coal mining business. It has five subsidiary companies NTPC Electric Supply Company Ltd, NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nisam Ltd, Kanti...

But NTPC Ltd CMP at Rs. 148 Add on dips to Rs. 148 - Rs. 135 for the Target of Rs. 165 - Rs. 175

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NTPC reported a strong set of Q4FY16 results as an estimate beat was recorded on all fronts. Net revenues for Q4FY16 declined 6.2%...

NTPCs 4QFY16 recurring PAT at Rs 28.7bn (6%YoY growth) was significantly ahead of estimates and consensus. The beat was largely on account of (1) Better-than-expected other income, driven by the dividend from group companies (Rs 1.3bn), and (2) Improved profitability owing to lower fuel cost (boosted by reduced cost of Rs 2.5bn after revised RasGas deal).

In line with our estimate, NTPC's net sales declined 6.2% yoy on the back of lower electricity generation, PLF and fuel costs and reduced variable charges. Despite 14.4% yoy rise in PBT due to improved operating margins, the Company's net profit declined 7.7% yoy to Rs27.1bn in 4QFY16 owing to adjustment of I-T refund in the previous years. Operating parameters of NTPC's power plants remained under pressure with decline in Plant Load Factor (PLF) due to lower system demand and fuel issues. We believe that regulatory overhangs and lower PLF have already been factored in at low valuations of 1.1x FY18E P/BV which makes us fundamentally...