NMDC Ltd. share price target

8 August 2018 NMDCs 1QFY19 adj. EBITDA declined 29% QoQ (-9% YoY) to INR14.8b (est. of INR13.5b) due to 35% QoQ/26% YoY decline in volumes to 6.8mt. EBITDA is adjusted for (a) rail line doubling payment of INR291m and (b) expected credit loss of INR258m, which are non-recurring. Adj. PAT declined 30% QoQ to INR9.7b (est. Production was down 39% QoQ/19% YoY to 6.9mt due to low dispatches. Domestic realization was down 3% QoQ (+21% YoY) to INR3,541/t (6% beat).

For Q4FY18, NMDC reported a healthy performance, which came in above our estimates. The company reported a sales volume of 10.5 million tonne (MT) (our estimate: 10.0 MT). Topline for the quarter was at | 3883 crore up 35.2% YoY, 57.3% QoQ, higher than our estimate of | 3347.6 crore. The blended iron ore realisations increased 26% YoY, 21.8% QoQ to | 3653/tonne (vs. Q4FY17: | 2898/tonne, Q3FY18: | 2999/tonne, our estimate: | 3236/tonne) On the back of healthy iron ore realisations, EBITDA was healthy at...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research For Q3FY18, NMDC reported a healthy performance, in line with our estimates. Sales volume was at 8.1 million tonne (MT) (our estimate: 8.3 MT). Topline for the quarter was at | 2469 crore, down 1.2% YoY, up 2% QoQ in line with our estimate of | 2445 crore. The blended iron ore realisations during the quarter were at | 3014/tonne, up 23.4% YoY and 5.7% QoQ (our estimate: | 2799/tonne) On the back of healthy iron ore realisations, the company reported a...

Capacity utilization to improve as demand is rising sharply NMDC has iron ore mining capacity of 46mtpa, but utilization is only ~80%. We expect utilization to improve gradually to 100% over the next 2-3 years, as its key customers (JSW steel, Essar Steel and RINL) are all ramping up production. There will be additional demand of 15-20mtpa. NMDC is well placed to serve them due to its high quality of ore and access to rail infrastructure. NMDC is also investing in doubling of the KK line to improve evacuation from the Chhattisgarh complex. Steel plants, albeit delayed, will be highly profitable...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NMDC reported an in-line performance for Q2FY18. Topline and EBITDA were broadly in line with our estimates NMDC reported sales volume of 8.3 million tonne (MT) against our estimate of 8.5 MT. Topline for the quarter was at | 2421.3 crore up 39.2% YoY (our estimate: | 2488 crore). The blended iron ore realisations were at | 2852/tonne up 40.4% YoY The company for the quarter reported an EBITDA of | 1203 crore up...

Higher capex by the company would indeed support its production off take. Indian Steel Ministry intends to raise India's steel production to 300 mtpa by FY25 on the back of long term growth prospects of the economy which in turn would benefit the iron ore industry. The long term outlook of Indian steel industry looks promising as the sector enjoys competitive advantages due to the impetus being given by the government to infrastructure growth, urbanization and rising incomes. Low per capita steel...

NMDC reported a strong Q1FY18 performance. The healthy performance was marked by higher-than-expected iron ore realisations and lower-than-expected-cost NMDC reported a sales volume of 9.18 million tonne (MT). The topline for the quarter came in at | 2841.5 crore, up 65.1% YoY. Blended iron ore realisations were at | 3060/tonne, up 40.2% YoY On the back of healthy iron ore realisations and lower overall cost, for the quarter, the company reported a healthy EBITDA of | 1494.9 crore,...

Revenue increased by 14.96% to Rs. 2871.32 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NMDC reported a subdued set of Q4FY17 numbers. The topline came in above our estimate but adjusted EBITDA and adjusted PAT were below our estimates. The company reported a net income from operations of | 2871.7 crore, up 88% YoY, 15% QoQ and above our estimate of | 2689.4 crore. Iron ore sales volume of 9.8 million tonnes (MT) was below our estimate of 10.0 MT. NMDC's blended realisation...

Revenue increased by 43.63% to Rs. 2497.86 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it increased by 64.61% when compared with Q3FY16.