NMDC Ltd. share price target

In September 2018, NMDC took a price hike of | 200/tonne for iron ore lumps and | 150/tonne for iron ore fines (the price hike will be with effect from September 7, 2018). The revised prices for iron ore lumps are at | 3550/tonne (from | 3350/tonne previously) while prices of fines have been revised to | 3110/tonne (from | 2960/tonne previously). The increase in iron ore prices is in the backdrop of a healthy demand scenario and increased pellet prices. Cumulatively, since July 2018, iron ore lumps prices have increased by ~| 500/tonne while fines prices have...

NMDC has revised prices of domestic iron ore thrice YTD, adding up to Rs300 and Rs350 per tonne for iron ore fines and lump ore to Rs2,960/tonne and Rs3,350/tonne, respectively. We believe that the recent hike in the iron ore prices is backed by 4% month on month increase in international iron ore prices, rupee depreciation and the surge in pellet prices (~4 years high / +25% YoY). Though, we continue to remain cautious on the outlook of iron ore prices for the medium to long term perspective. But, expect it to remain...

Revenue fell by 37.63% to Rs. 2421.99 Cr in Q1FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. NMDC Ltd Q1FY19 results Comment

For Q1FY19, NMDC reported a healthy performance on the profitability front. NMDC reported sales volume of 6.84 million tonne (MT), lower than our estimate of 7.5 MT. Topline for the quarter came in at | 2422.0 crore, down 14.8% YoY, 37.6 QoQ vs. our estimate of | 2486 crore. The blended iron ore realisations during the quarter was at | 3504/tonne, up ~18% YoY, down 4.1% QoQ On the back of healthy iron ore realisations YoY and lower costs, the company for the quarter reported an EBITDA of | 1423.9 crore (down...

8 August 2018 NMDCs 1QFY19 adj. EBITDA declined 29% QoQ (-9% YoY) to INR14.8b (est. of INR13.5b) due to 35% QoQ/26% YoY decline in volumes to 6.8mt. EBITDA is adjusted for (a) rail line doubling payment of INR291m and (b) expected credit loss of INR258m, which are non-recurring. Adj. PAT declined 30% QoQ to INR9.7b (est. Production was down 39% QoQ/19% YoY to 6.9mt due to low dispatches. Domestic realization was down 3% QoQ (+21% YoY) to INR3,541/t (6% beat).

For Q4FY18, NMDC reported a healthy performance, which came in above our estimates. The company reported a sales volume of 10.5 million tonne (MT) (our estimate: 10.0 MT). Topline for the quarter was at | 3883 crore up 35.2% YoY, 57.3% QoQ, higher than our estimate of | 3347.6 crore. The blended iron ore realisations increased 26% YoY, 21.8% QoQ to | 3653/tonne (vs. Q4FY17: | 2898/tonne, Q3FY18: | 2999/tonne, our estimate: | 3236/tonne) On the back of healthy iron ore realisations, EBITDA was healthy at...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research For Q3FY18, NMDC reported a healthy performance, in line with our estimates. Sales volume was at 8.1 million tonne (MT) (our estimate: 8.3 MT). Topline for the quarter was at | 2469 crore, down 1.2% YoY, up 2% QoQ in line with our estimate of | 2445 crore. The blended iron ore realisations during the quarter were at | 3014/tonne, up 23.4% YoY and 5.7% QoQ (our estimate: | 2799/tonne) On the back of healthy iron ore realisations, the company reported a...

Capacity utilization to improve as demand is rising sharply NMDC has iron ore mining capacity of 46mtpa, but utilization is only ~80%. We expect utilization to improve gradually to 100% over the next 2-3 years, as its key customers (JSW steel, Essar Steel and RINL) are all ramping up production. There will be additional demand of 15-20mtpa. NMDC is well placed to serve them due to its high quality of ore and access to rail infrastructure. NMDC is also investing in doubling of the KK line to improve evacuation from the Chhattisgarh complex. Steel plants, albeit delayed, will be highly profitable...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NMDC reported an in-line performance for Q2FY18. Topline and EBITDA were broadly in line with our estimates NMDC reported sales volume of 8.3 million tonne (MT) against our estimate of 8.5 MT. Topline for the quarter was at | 2421.3 crore up 39.2% YoY (our estimate: | 2488 crore). The blended iron ore realisations were at | 2852/tonne up 40.4% YoY The company for the quarter reported an EBITDA of | 1203 crore up...

Higher capex by the company would indeed support its production off take. Indian Steel Ministry intends to raise India's steel production to 300 mtpa by FY25 on the back of long term growth prospects of the economy which in turn would benefit the iron ore industry. The long term outlook of Indian steel industry looks promising as the sector enjoys competitive advantages due to the impetus being given by the government to infrastructure growth, urbanization and rising incomes. Low per capita steel...

NMDC reported a strong Q1FY18 performance. The healthy performance was marked by higher-than-expected iron ore realisations and lower-than-expected-cost NMDC reported a sales volume of 9.18 million tonne (MT). The topline for the quarter came in at | 2841.5 crore, up 65.1% YoY. Blended iron ore realisations were at | 3060/tonne, up 40.2% YoY On the back of healthy iron ore realisations and lower overall cost, for the quarter, the company reported a healthy EBITDA of | 1494.9 crore,...

Revenue increased by 14.96% to Rs. 2871.32 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NMDC reported a subdued set of Q4FY17 numbers. The topline came in above our estimate but adjusted EBITDA and adjusted PAT were below our estimates. The company reported a net income from operations of | 2871.7 crore, up 88% YoY, 15% QoQ and above our estimate of | 2689.4 crore. Iron ore sales volume of 9.8 million tonnes (MT) was below our estimate of 10.0 MT. NMDC's blended realisation...

Revenue increased by 43.63% to Rs. 2497.86 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it increased by 64.61% when compared with Q3FY16.

NMDC reported a healthy set of Q3FY17 numbers wherein topline, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted PAT came in above our estimates. The company reported a net income from operations of | 2497.9 crore, up 44% QoQ, 65% YoY and above our estimate of | 2242.7 crore. Iron ore sales volume of 9.8 million tonnes (MT) came in line with our estimate of 9.8 MT. NMDC's blended realisation came in at | 2519/tonne, up 19% QoQ, 22% YoY vs. our estimate of | 2261/tonne NMDC reported an EBITDA of | 1026.6 crore. However, there were a...

For Q2FY17, NMDC reported healthy sales volume numbers. For the quarter under review iron ore sales volume stood at 8.1 Million tonnes (MT), higher by 24.6% YoY and 3.8% QoQ....

NMDCs numbers were ahead of our estimates, driven by realisations (Rs 2,117, -12.9% YoY, -3.4% QoQ), likely led by higher premiums NMDC charges in Karnataka. EBITDA/t at Rs 1,025 (-26.6% YoY, -2.5% QoQ) was ahead of estimates driven by better realisations.

Price hike, buyback, non-core biz exits to drive re-rating; upgrading to Buy NMDC's earnings outlook has improved significantly after the adoption of differential regional pricing, improved viability of exports and a sharp pick-up in pellets exports /coking coal prices/sponge iron prices in India. Dispatches and margins are already improving. We expect a price hike in October. Efficiencies in capital allocation too are improving due to its high dividend payout, large buyback and intention to exit non-core businesses (e.g. steel plant project), which will drive re-rating of the stock. We raise our EPS estimate by 50% to INR9 for FY17 and by 106% to INR8.3 for FY18. We also remove...

NMDCs numbers continue to slide and miss expectations. Reported EBITDA (Rs 5.4bn, -62.0% YoY, -16.2% QoQ) was below estimates on account of lower pricing and higher other expenses. The company will bear the District Mineral Foundation (DMF) and National Mineral Exploration Trust?s (NMET) expenses (30% and 2% of royalties).

The company reported a net income from operations of | 1530.0 crore, up 0.8% QoQ, down 45.9% YoY and below our estimate of | 1757.2 crore. The company's iron ore sales volume of 8.6 million...