Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. share price target

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues grew 24.8% YoY to | 728 crore (I-direct estimate: | 647.5 crore) on account of continuous windfall gains from gAbilify sales in the US. Export sales grew 75.2% to | 308.5 crore (I-direct estimate: | 228.7 crore. Domestic branded formulation sales grew 5.7% to | 277.7 crore (I-direct estimate: | 275.8 crore) on the back of 16% growth in the speciality portfolio EBITDA margins improved 407 bps YoY to 21.6% (I-direct estimate:...

Alembic Pharma's (ALPM) 1Q results were broadly in line with our estimates. Sales grew 25% YoY to INR7.3b, ~3.5% above our estimate primarily due to strong growth in international business partially offset by muted growth in domestic business. EBITDA margin was 21.4% against our estimate of 20.7% due to lower than expected R&D; cost of 11% (our estimate was ~13%), partially offset by higher operating expense. International business shines; domestic business impacted by regulatory actions: International business grew >70% YoY and >60% QoQ due to increase...

Alembic Pharmaceuticals' 4QFY2016 results have come in below our expectations, on the sales front. The company posted sales of Rs626cr (V/s Rs763cr expected) for the quarter, registering a yoy growth of 24.7%. The growth in sales was driven by international formulations (Rs190.2cr) which grew 20% yoy, while Indian formulations (Rs259.6cr)..

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues grew 24.6% YoY to | 626.6 crore, lower than I-direct estimate of | 840.2 crore mainly due to lower-than-expected export...

Alembic Pharmaceuticals (Alembic Pharma) posted better-than-expected results for 3QFY2016. It posted an 81.8% yoy growth in sales for the quarter to Rs921cr V/s Rs507cr in 3QFY2015 (and V/s an expected Rs700cr). Sales growth was mainly driven by the international business, which posted a 248% yoy growth, while the Indian branded formulation business posted a 15% yoy growth. Consequently, on the operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 41.7% V/s 20.1% in 3QFY2015 (and V/s an expected 27.5%). The same was aided by gross margin expansion, which came in at 77.6% V/s 65.6% in 3QFY2015. The R&D; expenditure during the quarter was 7.6% of sales V/s 6.0% of sales in 3QFY2015. Thus, the PAT came in at Rs269cr V/s Rs71cr in 3QFY2015 (and V/s an expected Rs160cr), a yoy growth of 281.4%. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock considering fuller valuations. Results better than expectations: Alembic Pharma posted better-than-expected results for 3QFY2016. It posted an 81.8% yoy growth in sales for the quarter to Rs921cr V/s Rs507cr in 3QFY2015 (and V/s an expected Rs700cr). Sales growth was mainly driven by the international business, which posted a 248% yoy growth, while the Indian branded formulation business posted a 15%...

As Alembic books sales of Abilify with a one quarter lag, the impact of price erosion and loss of market share have not reflected in the 3QFY16 numbers. We estimate ~US$ 45mn Abilify revenues in 3Q. Staff costs are up 48% YoY and the new base is likely to be recurring. The company is also investing aggressively in R&D; (up 130% YoY).

In Q3FY16, total revenues of Alembic Pharmaceuticals increased by 80.1% YoY to Rs 9.2 bn (our estimates Rs 9.4 bn) compared to Rs 5.1 bn in Q3FY15, due to higher export formulations sales on account of revenues generated from Abilify opportunity.

The company was in the first wave, when it launched gAbilify through its partners. The price reduction of Althrocin has been more than compensated by gAbilify. We believe US and domestic formulations would continue to be company's key revenue and margin drivers.

For 2QFY2016, Alembic Pharmaceuticals (Alembic Pharma) posted numbers well ahead of our expectations. It posted an 84.5% yoy growth in sales to end the period at Rs1,008cr V/s Rs750cr expected. On the operating front, the OPM came in at 37.2% V/s 27.8% expected and V/s 19.5% in 2QFY2015. R&D; expenditure during the quarter was 9.4% of sales V/s 13.0% of sales in 2QFY2015. The net profit consequently came in at Rs289cr V/s Rs177.3cr expected and V/s Rs77.3cr in 2QFY2015, a yoy growth of 273.4%. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock, considering the fuller valuations. Results better than expectations: For 2QFY2016, the company posted numbers well ahead of our expectations. It posted an 84.5% yoy growth in sales to end the period at Rs1,008cr V/s Rs750cr expected. This was primarily driven by gAbilifys launch in the US. Overall formulations were 84% of sales in 2QFY2016, with international generic accounting for 45% of sales and Indian branded accounting for 34% of sales. International generics (Rs559.3cr) posted a sales growth of 342% yoy. The Indian formulation branded sales (`2,846cr) posted a sales growth of 3.3% yoy. The API business posted a yoy growth of 43% yoy. On the operating front, the...