Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. share price target

US and ROW sales grew above our estimates of 5% and 13% respectively, reporting growth of 10% each

Alembic Pharma’s revenue missed our estimates (-2.2%) due to weak growth in domestic and API business. EBITDA fell short of our estimates due to a miss in revenue and higher operating expenses. Adj. PAT missed our estimates due to higher-than-expected tax expenses and lower-than-expected other income.

Alembic Pharma’s (Alembic) Q3FY25 result was dragged by tepid performance in India and API biz. India biz growth has been weaker (5.8% in 9MFY25) for the last couple of quarters due to pressure in acute segment even though animal health biz has been growing <20%.

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) delivered operationally in-line 3QFY25 performance. Higher interest outgo and tax led to lower-than-expected earnings for the quarter.

Alembic Pharma’s revenue missed our estimate (-4.8%) due to decline in API segment and moderate growth in India and US. However, EBITDA was in-line and Adj. PAT was largely in-line (+2.5%) with our estimate.

Q2FY25 results were below our estimates on all fronts; however, ALPM expects H2 to be better than H1FY25 driven by healthy product mix

Alembic Pharma’s (ALPM) 2QFY25 results came in below our estimates due to the deterioration in API business and higher operational costs.

Alembic Pharma’s revenue missed our estimate due to lower-than-expected revenue in the Ex-USA segment and lower-than-expected revenue in the API segment. We believe the Company will aim to maintain a growth trajectory in the US with new product launches while continuing to outperform the Indian Pharmaceutical Market in the long term.

Alembic Pharma’s revenue missed our estimate slightly due to weak growth in India, Ex-US (other than the US market), and API segments. However, EBITDA beat our estimates due to cost optimization measures and better utilization.

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) delivered better-than-expected 4QFY24 earnings,
led by better gross margin and improved off-take in the API segment. After
two consecutive years of weak financial performance, ALPM ended FY24
with 10%/14%/43% YoY growth in sales/EBIDTA/PAT to INR62b/INR9.3b/
INR6b.

ALPM reported strong margin gains in Q4 on account of better utilisation of new facilities and traction in the US business

For Q3FY24, Alembic Pharma’s revenue has increased 8.1% YoY (2.2% QoQ) to INR 16,306 Mn. This was driven by strong growth of 9.7% YoY/6.8% QoQ in the US market (INR 4,740 Mn or 29.0% of total revenue) on the back of 11 new launches, and market share gains from the recently commercialized products.

Monthly Economic Buffet: Economic Round-up January 2024. SBIN: Pension one-off hurts profitability. JSTL: Progressing on expansion but valuations fair. ACEM: Healthy quarter, sustainability key; retain HOLD. ALPM: Healthy quarter; PAT beat on low tax rate. CPBI: Margin stress across segments. VSTT: Poor demand dampens performance

Alembic Pharmaceuticals' revenue performance in Q2FY24 has shown positive growth. The Company reported an 8.1% increase in consolidated revenue from operations, reaching INR 15,949 Mn, compared to INR 14,750 Mn in Q2FY23. The ex-US generic business saw a healthy growth of 17.2% YoY (-5.4% QoQ) to INR 2,520 Mn, driven by strong market demand and partnerships.

Q2 revenue ticked up 8% YoY as healthy sales in international markets supported by modest India business

Alembic reported a healthy 17.7% YoY revenue growth driven by traction in the export business and APIs. Operational cost of three new plants impacted margins. Management does not expect any material escalation in overhead costs ahead. Company has launched only 5 products (15-20 filed) from the three new sites, which may not be able to improve profitability in the near term.