NBCC (India) Ltd. share price target

NBCC's net sales contracted 7.3% YoY to | 2170.1 crore largely due to a 3.8% decline in PMC revenues to | 1996.3 crore and nil revenues from the real estate division (| 100.4 crore in Q4FY17) EBITDA margins contracted 60 bps YoY to 8.3% due to a weak performance in the PMC division where it clocked EBIT margin of 6.4% (9.5% in Q4FY17). After adjusting for unallocable income in the PMC division, the EBIT margin in PMC division works out to 10.5% Net profit de-grew 18.9% YoY to | 141.7 crore mainly on account of a...

NBCC continued to report soft performance in 4QFY18 with EBITDA declining by 19% YoY to Rs1.7bn mainly due to lower than expected revenue booking. While reported revenue declined by 7% YoY, revenue on comparable basis grew by 12-14% YoY. PMC revenue declined by 4% YoY to Rs20bn (92% of total revenue). There was no revenue from Real Estate. EPC revenue stood at Rs1.7bn (+7% YoY and +45% QoQ). EBITDA margin stood at 7.7% (-108bps YoY and +316bps QoQ). Notably, order book stands at Rs800bn (11.6x FY18 consolidated revenue) and offers unmatched growth visibility, going ahead. Its key redevelopment projects i.e. Pragati Maidan, Nauroji Nagar, Netaji Nagar and Maharashtra Irrigation were started and few more...

Management tried to address the key concerns pertaining to the execution of its 3 redevelopment projects, namely Naurojii Nagar, Netaji Nagar and Sarojini Nagar. NBCC has already awarded tenders for Nauroji Nagar to NCC (Rs19.5bn); Netaji Nagar Package1 (Rs10.4bn) to Shapoorji Paloonji and Sarojini Nagar Package1 to Girdhari Lal Constructions (Rs8.5bn). Over the past six months, NBCC has tendered projects worth ~Rs100bn to the EPC contractors and expects to order an additional ~Rs150bn in FY19. In terms of commercial sales, NBCC has already monetized Rs22-25bn from the sale of commercial properties (in less than six months) in Nauroji Nagar. East Kidwainagar project (~Rs53bn) is...

NBCC (India) Ltd, a Navratna PSU with major presence in project management consultancy space in building segment is focusing on execution of its order book. In the last 4 years (FY15-18E), the company has grown its order book by ~4x to ~Rs 800 bn which gives strong revenue growth visibility for the next 5 years. On the other hand, the revenue has grown less than 1.5x in the same period. The company is focusing on execution and expects strong revenue growth in FY19E as most of the redevelopment projects would contribute meaningfully in the year. It has begun work on Rs 100 bn of new projects in the past 6 months which will be...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Net sales contracted 7.0% YoY to | 1321.5 crore. They were below our estimate of | 1618.5 crore mainly on account of lower-thanexpected revenues in the PMC division. PMC division revenues degrew 6.3% YoY to | 1190.5 crore vs. our expectation of | 1467.6 crore The EBITDA margin contracted marginally by 10 bps YoY to 5.2%. It was below our estimate of 5.9% mainly due to the weak performance of the PMC division where it clocked EBIT margin of 11% (our estimate: 12%). After adjusting for un-allocable expenses in the PMC division, the EBIT margin in PMC division works out to 6.7%...

GST transition makes Q2FY18 results incomparable. As against our revenue/ EBITDA/net profit expectations of Rs12bn/Rs642mn/Rs524mn, company reported Rs11.3bn/Rs843mn/Rs741mn respectively. Nauroji, Sarojini and Pragati Maidan will contribute Rs60bn in revenues from FY19 onwards. With company aiming for another Rs250-300bn order inflows in FY18, the order backlog could end at Rs1trn+ in FY18. Note Dharavi and railway station redevelopment projects, put together, can exceed order inflow of Rs500bn, if won. And there are other big ticket projects in the pipeline too....

NBCC has delivered a soft performance in 2QFY18 with its top-line declining by 7% YoY to Rs11.3bn, as revenue booking was impacted due to GST implementation and slow progress in several projects. While PMC revenue declined by 3% YoY to Rs10bn (89% of total revenue), revenue from Real Estate and EPC contracted by 68% YoY and 20% YoY, respectively. However, EBITDA improved by a sharp 103% YoY to Rs800mn, as NBCC started receiving designing and DPR expenditures for the new projects from its clients. EBITDA margin rose by 385bps YoY and 242bps QoQ to 7.1%. Led by healthy operating performance, its net profit increased by 10% YoY and 33% QoQ to Rs741mn. Notably, order book stands at Rs750bn (12.2x TTM revenue)...

NBCC's net sales contracted 7.2% YoY to | 1128.4 crore. It was below our estimate of | 1407.8 crore due to lower-than-expected revenues in the PMC division. PMC division revenues de-grew 10.5% YoY to | 1003.5 crore vs. our expectation of | 1291.9 crore due to GST issues EBITDA margin expanded robustly by 160 bps YoY to 7.4%. It was above our estimate of 6.0% mainly due to strong performance in the PMC division where it clocked EBIT of | 167.7 crore (our estimate: | 116.3 crore) with EBIT margin of 16.7% (our estimate: 9.0%). After...

Company remains confident on adding Rs250-300bn order inflows in FY18. With that, the order backlog could end at ~Rs1trn. NBCC pencils in Rs100bn from railway redevelopment projects, notwithstanding the latest Govt. policy overhaul. Adding to that, (a) PMC works from state governments like Uttar Pradesh; and (b) ministries like Tourism and Home-- could fill the remaining gap. Interestingly, NBCC...

Q1FY18 revenue growth was flat, however PAT grew by 24% YoY led by higher EBITDA margins and lower expenses. Order inflow guidance of Rs25,000cr for FY18E provides a rosy picture....