Natco Pharma Ltd. share price target

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40x P/E on FY23E EPS + | 119 NPV for gRevlimid) Key triggers for future price performance: Expected momentum for H2FY22 is likely due to some high profile launches...

recovery in the domestic business front but registered a 27% YoY degrowth due to a higher base in Q1FY21 attributable to covid sales. The company reported strong growth in domestic business with a strong position in oncology and hepatitis-c domains. APIs registered a decline of 57% YoY and export formulations de-grew 47% YoY to 145cr. Resultantly, EBITDA margins contracted 300bps YoY to 27% and EBITDA declined 35.8% YoY to Rs.109.8cr. With approval in both Hyderabad and Vizag facilities, Revlimid is expected to be launched in the March quarter of FY22. In the agro-chemical business front, the company has launched...

What should investors do? Natco's share price has grown by ~1.6x over the past five years (from ~| 632 in July 2016 to ~| 1024 levels in July 2021). We retain our HOLD rating on this stock...

Molnupiravir for the treatment of Covid-19 patients. New launches in the Indian market are expected to drive domestic earnings with ~10 new product launches a year. The company has forayed into the agro-chemical business and invested in the Crop Health Sciences Division targeting niche products. Natco received final approval for Revlimed (Lenalidomide capsules) and...

Natco is a leading player in the domestic oncology segment with a product basket of ~33 products (FY20). Covid related disturbances and pricing pressure notwithstanding, we expect momentum in oncology segment to be decent on the back of incremental launches. New launches in cardio/diabetology segment (CND) is also expected to support overall growth. Going ahead, Natco is looking to launch 10 products a year. We...

Natco Pharma Ltd. (NPL) is a midsized pharmaceutical company with a presence across the pharma value chain. It owns eight manufacturing facilities including six formulations facilities and two API facilities. The company also has a US retail business. Natco is a leading domestic player in the oncology space. NPL's product pipeline consists of drugs,...

Natco's total revenues de-grew by 26% YoY and 56% QoQ to Rs.355cr in Q3FY21 with de-growth seen across geographies. The formulation exports (46% of revenues) de-grew by 13% YoY, while domestic formulations (27% of revenues), de-grew by 37%. The formulation exports were impacted by the lower sales of Tamiflu in the U.S on the back of weak flu season while Brazil and Canada also saw lower revenues. The market share for Copaxone as well as other formulations remains stable. The company stated that the approval for the...

Cipla: Owing to competition, we expect Cipla to garner 1-7% market share for volume-limited period and 15% thereafter. Hence, with above market share and a 70-90% price erosion assumption, our gRevlimid NPV arrives at | 41. We maintain BUY rating and arrive at a target price of | 965, including...