Natco Pharma Ltd. share price target

Natco witnessed YoY de-growth of 11% in sales in Q1FY20 due to poor sales in the US and decline in Hep-C revenue in India. EBITDA was down by 16% (YoY) while the margin down by 270bps on account of lower realisation in the US . Launched first time generics - apixaban and rivaroxaban in India (June) which are globally mega blockbuster molecules. Key drivers of revenue in FY20 will be India, Brazil and Canada which together is expected to see encouraging growth in FY20-21E....

Revenues de-grew 8.6% YoY to | 492.3 crore (I-direct estimate: | 608.2 crore) mainly due to 14.1% decline in domestic formulations to | 164 crore. Export business grew 2.1% YoY to | 241 crore (I-direct estimate: | 262.1 crore). EBITDA margins contracted 154 bps to 38.9% (I-direct estimate: 43.3%) mainly due to high employee cost. EBITDA de-grew 12.1% YoY to | 191.3 crore against I-direct estimate of | 263.5 crore. Net profit de-grew 21.1% YoY to | 143.2 crore (I-direct estimate: | 195.4 crore). Delta vis--vis...

EBITDA was down by 56% while the margin down by 1400bps on account of lower realisation in the US and inventory write-offs. Weak filing momentum as categorized by ~5 filings in FY19 with the major one being Imbruvica ($2.97 billion sale in FY19) Key drivers of revenue in FY20 will be India, Brazil and Canada which together is expected to see high growth in FY20-21E. We revise downward our revenue estimates by 14%/11% for FY20/21E while the PAT estimate by 13% in FY20 and 6% in FY21...

Natco has carved out its own identity via tie-ups to tap limited but niche products pipeline including 16 Para IVs and two limited competition products (FY18). As per the revised and more feasible game plan, it plans to market products via tie-ups with established players in the generic space. Till FY18, the company filed 45 ANDAs, which includes some niche FTF...

EBITDA margin was down by 1200bps on account of lower margin realisation from Oseltamivir sales in the US (treatment for flu). Initiated work on green-field manufacturing facilities for producing niche agrichemicals with focus on formulation products. Launched Valsartan-Sacubitril tablet in India and filed ANDA for generic version of Ibrutinib tablets in the US . We revise downward our Revenue/PAT estimates by 4%/3% for FY20 to factor lower sales from the US....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Q3FY19 results were higher than I-direct estimates on all fronts. Revenues de-grew 1% YoY to | 556.7 crore (I-direct estimate: | 534.7 crore) on the back of high base of Oseltamivir (flu) in the US EBITDA margins were at 37.4% against 51.0% in Q3FY18 (I-direct estimate: 35.4%) mainly due to high base of gOseltamivir (flu) in the...

NATCO Pharma (NATCO) is a R&D; focussed, vertically integrated pharmaceutical company with an experienced management team and presence across multiple speciality therapeutic segments. Q2FY19 revenue grew by 35% YoY due to stronger performance from API (up by 30%YoY) and formulation (up by 96%YoY) exports. EBITDA rose by 104% YoY while margin is up by 1520bps primarily driven by revenue from limited competition products in the US. Received court affirmation in favor of prior decisions invalidating...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Q2FY19 results were in-line with I-direct estimates on revenues and net profit fronts. Revenues grew 27.4% YoY to | 543.5 crore (I-direct estimate: | 560.1 crore) on the back of continuous windfall from limited competition products (Glatiramer Acetate, Liposomal Doxorubicin, Lanthanum Carbonate and Oseltamivir) in the US EBITDA margins were at 40.6% vs. 28.6% in Q2FY18 (I-direct estimate: 44.4%) mainly due to better realisation from limited...

NATCO Pharma (NATCO) is a R&D; focussed, vertically integrated pharmaceutical company with an experienced management team and presence across multiple speciality therapeutic segments. Q1FY19 revenue grew by 28% YoY due to stronger performance from domestic (4% vs -20%)) and international formulations(~75%). EBITDA rose by 82% YoY while margin witnessed a 1320bps increase on account of lower raw material cost (RM). PAT growth of 94% YoY is led by lower cost escalations and less...

Revenue fell by 29.85% to Rs. 538.6 Cr in Q1FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. Natco Pharma Ltd Q1FY19 results Comment