MphasiS Ltd. share price target

Mphasis demonstrated strong financial performance, with 2.9% q/q, 5.4% y/y revenue growth in CC, driven by significant contribution from the BFS sector (50% of revenue) and a sharp rebound in the Technology, Media & Telecommunications segment (18% of revenue).

The revenue growth performance (+2.9% QoQ CC) exceeded our estimates (+2.5% QoQ CC). ~80% of its portfolio mix maintained a steady state, while the rest of its business mix (L&T and Others) reported a decline of 8% and 3% QoQ, respectively. The continued improvement in large deal wins (13 large deals in FY25) and meaningful conversion of those deals are supporting the growth within BFSI. Despite having booked record high deal TCV of USD390m (11% QoQ), the deal funnel still looks encouraging (26% QoQ and 86% YoY). Even...

Mphasis (MPHL)’s 4QFY25 gross revenue was 2.9% QoQ in Constant Currency (CC), in line with our estimate of 3.0% QoQ CC. Direct business grew 3.8%/6.8% QoQ/YoY in CC, aided by BFS and TMT.

3QFY25 has yet again proven the volatility in Mphasis's business compared to its Tier-2 peers like Persistent & Coforge

Mphasis (MPHL)’s 3QFY25 revenue was 0.1% QoQ in Constant Currency (CC), in-line with our estimate of 0.2% QoQ CC. Direct business grew 0.2%/5.1% QoQ/YoY in CC, aided by Insurance and TMT. TCV was up 70% QoQ to USD351m.

Mphasis (MPHL)’s 2QFY25 revenue was 2.5% QoQ in Constant Currency (CC), which was above our estimate (+2 % QoQ CC). Direct business grew 2.4%/6.2% QoQ/YoY in CC, aided by TMT and BFS.

Revenue and EBIT margin broadly in line. TCV a tad soft deals getting pushed back on greater scrutiny on spending by clients on AI projects.

MPHL’s Q1FY25 growth missed our estimates with a marginal revenue decline of 0.1% cc. BFS turnaround did not materialise in this quarter as well, with just 1.4% growth QoQ, lower than even Q4FY24 print of 2.5%.

Mphasis (MPHL)’s 1QFY25 revenue was flat QoQ in constant currency (CC), which was weaker than our estimate (+1.2% QoQ CC).

Regional banks and mortgages business will continue to draw down the overall BFSI segment

Mphasis’ revenue growth, at 2.1% QoQ CC, was largely in line our estimate of 1.9%. An uptick in BFS with the regional banking crisis showing signs of easing helped lift growth (Technology, Media and Telecom), with an uptick of 4.4%, also contributed to growth. However, TCV was at USD 177mn (down 26.6% QoQ).

Mphasis reported a big miss on revenue with flat QoQ CC growth (vs. ISEC: +1.8%) and 0.1% QoQ USD (vs. ISEC: +1.9%; consensus: +2.1%) led by challenges in conversion of TCV to revenue, discretionary spend cuts, and continued challenge in DR business as well as BFS ex-DR. Deal TCV was soft at USD 255mn, down 16% YoY, partly due to higher conversion of pipeline to TCV in Q1FY24.

We attended Mphasis analyst meet wherein the company outlined its future growth strategies: 1) focus on expanding non-BFS verticals, 2) continuing strategy of proactive large deal wins, and 3) increasing the number of clients with high revenue potential (USD 100mn+ annually).

Mphasis reported a miss in revenue, which fell 3.5% QoQ in cc terms, -3.4% QoQ / -8.4% YoY. The revenue decline was due to weakness in banking and capital markets (BCM, -8.8% QoQ, -14.8% YoY). BCM ex-mortgage was down 8.7% QoQ given delayed decision-making across large banks and weakness in regional banks.

Mphasis reported a miss in revenue, which fell -3.5% QoQ CC, -3.4% QoQ USD (I-Sec: -0.9%, cons: 0.01% USD) and -8.4% YoY CC. The revenue decline was due to weakness in banking and capital markets (BCM, -8.8% QoQ, -14.8% YoY). BCM ex-mortgage was down 8.7% QoQ given delayed decision-making across large banks and weakness in regional banks.

Q1 missed estimates as dollar revenue slipped 3.4% QoQ following a slowdown in both direct business and DXC

Weak Q4 revenue print (-4.1% QoQ); DR and DXC remained a drag on growth