Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. share price target

Below our estimate; higher RM cost hurts margin; order backlog strong Higher cost inflation to keep margin under pressure in 1HFY22E MSIL's 4QFY21 operating performance was impacted by higher commodity costs, partially offset by price hikes and lower discounts. Near-term challenges (of COVID-19 and commodity) notwithstanding, there are drivers in place for sustained volume and margin recovery from 2HFY22E. We lower our FY22E/FY23E EPS by 11%/3% to factor in some negative impact of the COVID-led lockdown on volumes as well as higher cost....

We retain our HOLD rating but revise our TP downwards to Rs. 6,950 valuing the stock at 25x its FY23E EPS.

Maruti Suzuki Q4 PAT drops 10% YoY, below estimates The car major said that the fall in net profit was on account of lower non-operating income owing to mark-to-market loss on invested surplus....

and arrive at a TP of Rs6,100 (earlier Rs7,912) based on PER of 27x FY23E EPS. Key Highlights and Investment Rationale EBITDA margin below estimates: Net revenues increased 32% YoY/2% QoQ to Rs240bn whereas export revenue increased 15% YoY to Rs13bn. Volumes for the quarter increased...

Average discounts 8 quarters low at Rs16.6k/unit (-13% YoY/ -18% QoQ). For 4QFY21, MSIL reported lower than estimated EBITDA at Rs19.9b (PLe Rs20.7bn) while lower other income at Rs0.9b (-90% YoY, PLe Rs7.5b) dragged Adj PAT by ~10% YoY at Rs11.7b (PLe Rs15.5b). Although RM inflation and volume uncertainty to persists over 1QFY22, PV as a segment will likely emerge stronger with ease in SoPs by state governements. We believe MSIL is well placed amongst OEMs as i) it is likely beneficiary of shift...

Maruti (MSIL) posted in-line Q4FY21 revenue, but an adverse sales mix, higher input costs and lower other income pulled PAT down 10% YoY.

Margins disappoint, Q1 to be impacted by lockdown, revival from Q2 Q4 margins below expectations on the back of high RM costs MSIL's Q4 FY21 revenues grew by 32% yoy and 2.4% qoq to 240 bn on the back of strong volumes and a lower base which was impacted by the pandemic. Realizations grew by 4% both yoy and qoq. EBITDA margins reduced to 8.3%, a fall of 70 bps yoy on firming up of input costs, as steel...

Demand for Passenger Vehicles was stronger than expected once COVID-related lockdown restrictions were lifted due to shift in preference towards personal mobility. This was reflected in strong demand with first-time buyer (FTB) share increasing to 50% in FY21 YTD (from 45% in FY20) of domestic volumes. Domestic volumes for the industry have been higher than FY19 levels (previous peak) since Sep'20 onwards. Recovery in the PV demand would have been better, but for a sharp rise in fuel prices (~30% increase in the last eight months). This, resulted in an increase in sales of CNG vehicles....

Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL) is an automobile manufacturer with a 56.2% ownership in Japanese car and motorcycle manufacturer Suzuki Motor Corporation. It is one of the largest passenger car companies and...

MSIL Q3FY21 results was below our and consensus estimates at EBITDA and Adj. PAT level due to higher RM cost and higher operating expenses. We believe pent demand and preference for personal mobility has helped MSIL to register good numbers during festive season. We build volume growth of 18%/15% for FY22E/FY23E respectively on account of lower base and higher premium car sales and expect after two years of consecutive decline company set for a multiyear upcycle. We also increase our other income estimates for FY22E/FY23E factoring the higher yields. We expect revenue/earnings to grow at ~4%/6% CAGR over FY20-FY23E with EBITDA margin of ~9%. We have arrived FY23E EPS at Rs263, factoring the higher realization and...