Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd. share price target

Poonawalla Fincorp (Poonawalla) reported mixed Q4FY25 earnings with PAT at INR 0.6bn or 76bps RoA, wherein opex continued to be elevated. However, there was some respite on credit cost front with sequential decline.

Poonawalla reported another patchy quarter (Q4) with elevated credit cost (3.03% of AUM) and opex (4.6% of AUM) pushing profitability materially lower (RoA of 0.76%).

Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL)’s 4QFY25 PAT declined ~81% YoY to ~INR623m (MOFSLe: INR1.8b). FY25 loss was INR983m (vs. PAT of INR10.3b in FY24).

Poonawalla Fincorp’s (PFL) 3QFY25 PAT declined ~93% YoY to ~INR187m (vs. MOFSLe: INR1.52b). NII grew ~25% YoY to ~INR6.1b (in line), while PPoP grew ~7% YoY to ~INR3.7b (in line).

Poonawalla Fincorp reported disappointing Q2 numbers with the credit cost of Rs9.1bn (including Rs6.7bn one-time provisioning on the STPL book) leading to the company posting a Rs4.7bn loss.

Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL)’s 2QFY25 loss stood at ~INR4.7b (MOFSLe: INR3b+). The company reported a loss in 2QFY25 mainly due to a one-time provision in STPL book of ~INR6.7b and a one-time opex of ~INR710m from investments in technology.

Poonawalla Fincorp’s (Poonawalla) new MD & CEO – Arvind Kapil – revealed that its guiding philosophy across businesses would be productivity, predictability and sustainability.

Poonawalla reported a good quarter, with profit, AUM growth, asset quality, and credit cost broadly in-line-to-slightly-better than consensus/our estimates.

Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL)’s 1QFY25 NII grew ~37% YoY to ~INR5.8b (5% miss), while its PPoP increased ~47% YoY to ~INR4.3b (9% miss).

Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL)’s 4QFY24 NII grew 48% YoY to ~INR5.6b (in line),
while its PPoP surged 103% YoY to ~INR4.1b (in line). PFL’s 4QFY24 PAT
jumped 84% YoY/25% QoQ to ~INR3.3b (9% beat), while its FY24 normalized
PAT grew 75% YoY to ~INR10.3b

Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL) continued to deliver on its stated strategy with RoA sustaining at 4.8% driven by strong AUM growth at ~10% QoQ. Notably, despite the strong growth momentum, total operating expenses continued to decline (down 11% QoQ in Q1FY24) resulting in cost-income ratio falling to 38% in Q1FY24 from 58% in Q1FY23.

Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL) has delivered on its stated strategy in FY23, registering an exit-RoA of 5.0%, FY23 AUM growth of 37%, FY23 focused AUM growth of 73%, gross stage-3 pool at 1.44% and net stage-3 at 0.78%. FY23 performance enhances confidence in management’s long term AUM growth guidance of 35- 40%, earnings growth of 30-35%, GNPA in the range of 1.3-1.8%, NNPA in the range of 0.5-0.9% and RoA of 4.0-4.5%.

Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL) has delivered on its stated strategy in Q3FY23 registering an RoA of 4.5%, standalone disbursement growth of 8% QoQ, focused AUM growth of 10% QoQ, gross stage-3 pool at 1.69% and net stage-3 at 0.89%.