Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. share price target

Reported provisions continue to lag our conservative forecasts prompting us to tweak FY21 earnings estimates higher by 58%. Subsequently, our FY22-23 estimates stand slightly higher by 5-10%. While Q2FY21 NPA at 7.5% stood optically better, higher write-offs and couple of granular asset details continue to throw negative surprises, viz, (a)8% (Rs50bn) critical assets (b)17% of overall customer base not paying even a single installment, o/w 6% could be restructured (c)Rs60bn book potential restructured book; Rs40bn...

Mahindra Finance (MMFS)'s 2QFY21 PAT was up 21% YoY to INR3b (a 64% beat and v/s INR1.5b QoQ). While PPoP was largely in line with est., lower provisions of INR6.2b (v/s est. INR8b) led to the PAT beat. PPoP grew 26% YoY to INR10.3b as opex declined 24% YoY to INR3.9b. Decline in opex was largely driven by 46% YoY decline in other expenses. Value of Assets (VOA) financed stood at INR54b (down 45% YoY). In the Auto/UV and Tractor segments, VOA was down just 2223% YoY, and in other segments, it was down 6585% YoY. While we acknowledge the...

20 July 2020 Mahindra Finance (MMFS) reported 1QFY21 PAT of INR1.6b (up 128% YoY; down 29% QoQ), a 3% miss. While PPoP beat our estimates by 25%, higher-than-expected provisions at INR8.4b led to the modest PAT miss. While the value of assets financed declined sharply, we note the decline in Tractors was much lower (35% YoY). Around half of the opex cut is sustainable, as per management. Gross Stage 3 assets increased 75bp QoQ to 9.2% due to slippages from tractor owners who had not availed moratorium. provision coverage to 40% QoQ from 31%. ECL% increased to 5.5% v/s 4.4% in 4QFY20 and 3.6% in 1QFY20. MMFS is comfortable on the ALM front, with liability repayments of INR54.7b in 2QFY21, against a cash balance of INR85b.

Lower disbursements (VAF down 67% yoy) and collections (75% of customers under moratorium) directly suppressed large cost components like travelling, commissions and conveyance. Renegotiation of fixed costs (rentals, outsourced services, etc.) and reduction in discretionary costs (advertising, etc.) also pulled down the opex. On-roll manpower has been...

MMFSL is one of leading Non-banking Finance Companies (NBFCs) with customers primarily in the rural and semi urban markets of India. MMFSL benefits from its close relationships with dealers & its longstanding relationships with original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) which allow it to provide on -site financing at dealerships. MMFSL is primarily engaged in providing financing...

Credit cost came in substantially higher at | 674 crore including contingent provision of | 574 crore related to Covid. Amid Covid, seasonal improvement in asset quality in Q4 was absent with GNPA remaining stable at 8.4%. Consequently, PAT declined 62% YoY to | 220.9 crore. Collection efficiency dipped to ~15% in April 2020, improving in May to ~30%. Also, ~75% customers opted for moratorium while ~28-30% branches/ customers are in red zone. Management expect any normalisation in business volumes to happen only post October 2020 with initial traction in...

16 May 2020 MMFS 4QFY20 PAT of INR2.2b (down 62% YoY), a 40% miss. The miss in PAT was led by a contingency provision of INR5.7b (we factored in ~INR2.2b) related to COVID-19. Of INR5.7b, INR4.7b was used to increase PCR (800bps QoQ to 31%) for GNPA. Pre-provisioning profits grew 24% YoY (beat of 14%) to INR9.7b as opex (27% beat) declined 24% YoY to INR4.2b. Net income missed our estimate by 3% as loans stood largely flat QoQ (+6% YoY) at INR650b v/s the expectation of ~2% QoQ growth (on March- end COVID-19 restrictions). NIMs/GS3% came in flat QoQ at 7.7%/8.4%.

30% in red zone) should further weigh down on asset quality and earnings over FY21-22. Consequently, GNPA & credit costs estimates stand marginally tweaked to (7-8% vs 7.5% earlier and 2.4%+ vs 2.3% earlier resp.) prompting to trim EPS estimates by 2-8% over FY21-22E. With return profile (RoE: 9%/RoA:1.2%) offering no respite, we reiterate REDUCE rating with SoTP...

MMFS looking at converting its 85 regional offices to 4-5 large service centers in order to reduce fixed expenses, along with other measures. We revise our estimates for FY20-22E and arrive at a target price of Rs....

NII grew 13.4% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ, due to reduction in borrowing cost. Provisions increased 78.1% YoY/10.9% QoQ, due to extra provisioning given challenging economic conditions Asset quality remained under pressure as GNPA/NNPA ratio declining sequentially at 7.6%/6.0% in Q3FY20 (vs 7.2%/5.8% in Q2FY20). We rolled forward the valuation to FY22E and arrive at a target price of Rs. 416 based on SOTP, retain our BUY rating on the stock. NII aids bottom line, partially offset by higher provisions...