KNR Constructions Ltd. share price target

KNR construction LTD (KNRC) Q3FY21 EBITDA was higher than our estimate by 16%. This was led by better execution (revenue up 23% YoY) in the quarter. YTDFY21 order inflow stood at Rs40bn and KNRC guides for incremental orders of Rs30-40bn in Q4FY21. We have increased our execution run rate for FY21 and FY22 to 20% pa and this has resulted in increase in the EPS by 23%/28%. We have revised our valuation multiple for EPC construction business to 18x (earlier 15x), thus TP is revised to Rs254 (earlier Rs172). Stock is up 50% since Dec-20 and re-retaining ACCUMULATE rating on the stock. At our TP, implied valuation is 20x FY23E EPS (30% premium to +1 STD of its means of last 10 years)....

Healthy order book position; execution to pick up ahead KNR's order book was robust at | 7,664 crore (3.1x order book to TTM revenues), mainly contributed by irrigation (45%), roads - HAM (30%) and roads - EPC (25%) segments. Additionally, KNR secured a road EPC project worth | 539 crore in Tamil Nadu in January, 2021, strengthening its order book further. Going forward, the company has submitted bids for 16 road projects (15 HAM, one EPC) worth ~| 20,000 crore and aims to bag ~| 3,000-4,000 crore of orders in remainder of FY21. On execution front, its...

KNR Constructions reported a strong quarter with revenue (up 23% YoY) and margins coming above our and street estimates. EBITDAM sustained at higher levels of 19.7% mainly due to higher share of irrigation projects in revenue mix (29% in 3Q) as well as Order Book (at 45%). Working capital position remains strong on the back of timely payments from NHAI & other State/Central Govt authorities. Realization of large part of dues (Rs5.4bn) from Telangana Govt further strengthened the liquidity position. On the backdrop of strong order book, healthy bid pipeline and sustained liquidity...

Together, roads & highways were clearly the most resilient segment of infrastructure. On the overall capex front, for roads and highways, the revised estimates (RE) FY21E spends is pegged ~12%, higher at | 92053 crore vs. budgeted estimates (BE) of | 81975. Even for FY22E, the government has pegged the road capex at | 108230 crore, growth of 17% YoY on a decent FY21 base. Of the total allocation, the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) will get | 57,350 crore, up from | 49,050 crore in FY21RE. The government is also looking to provide alternative...

Lean balance sheet: KNRC has invested Rs2.5bn in HAM projects plan to invest Rs4.1bn until FY23E. This will be funded from internal accruals. KNRC balance sheet continues to remain lean with H1FY21 standalone debt at Rs640mn and Debt to Equity at...

Stake sale in KNR Walayar BOT to Cube Highways concluded at equity value of Rs3.85bn and company received first tranche of Rs3.1bn. KNR Constructions posted a strong set of numbers with revenues (up 10% YoY) and margins above our and street estimates. Labour availability and operational efficiency across project sites have been recovering gradually,...

KNR construction LTD (KNRC) revenue was better than estimate and PAT was higher than our estimate by 12%. Q2FY21 order book stood at Rs86bn (4x TTM revenue) with an order inflow of Rs31bn in H1FY21. KNRC expects revenue to increase by 5-7% YoY in FY21. Balance sheet continues to remain lean with Q2FY21 standalone debt at Rs640mn and Debt to Equity at 0.01x. Consolidate debt is at Rs8bn and Net DER is at 0.42x. Post the result, increased EPS for FY21E/22E by 10%/1% (exhibit 9). We have introduced FY23E financials and roll forward TP to FY23E. Our revised TP stands at Rs344 (earlier Rs300). Our SOTP based TP assigns 15x PER to construction business and 1x book value to equity investment...

Q2FY21 revenue grew by 10% YoY (in-line with estimate) as execution is picking up and man power reached 80% of preCovid levels. EBITDA margin declined by 239bps YoY to 20.6% due to higher sub-contracting and other expenses. Current order book stands healthy at Rs8,555cr which is 3.8x TTM revenue and provides visibility....

Considering strong execution, best in class WC, monetisation of BOT/HAM assets, healthy balance sheet, strong return ratios, we maintain BUY on the stock with a revised SoTP TP of | 310. We will closely monitor irrigation...