KNR Constructions Ltd. share price target

KNR Constructions (KNRC) Continued to report a strong operating performance in 2QFY20 with margin exceeding our estimate with the wide range yet again. Revenue grew by 31% YoY and 17% QoQ to Rs5.5bn (including Rs180mn claims received/booked in revenue) vs. our estimate of Rs5.1bn mainly led by pick-up in execution in HAM projects. Adjusted for claim booked, EBITDA margin stood at strong 19.7% way ahead of ours and even the Company's own guidance. APAT declined by 7% YoY to Rs420mn (but higher than our estimate of Rs395mn) mainly led by higher tax, as new projects do not enjoy any tax benefit. Order book as on 30th Sept'19 stood at Rs51.5bn (excluding Rs15.4bn EPC order components from 2 AD pending HAM...

Orderbook at | 6,681.8 crore as of Q2FY20 KNR's order book (OB) was at a strong | 6,681.8 crore (including the recently won HAM project and Karnataka State Highways Improvement Project (KSHIP) HAM project), implying order book-to-bill ratio of 3.1x (on TTM basis). The OB consists of | 4,830.6 crore from roads division and | 1,850.4 crore from irrigation. On the new orders front, it secured order inflows (OI) worth | 1,800 crore (comprising | 1,700 crore irrigation projects and | 100 crore from change in scope at certain projects). KNR is targeting incremental...

KNR Constructions' (KNRC) Q2FY20 core revenue ex-arbitral awards grew 26% YoY and core EBITDA margin beat estimates at 20.6% (+60bps YoY).

KNR delivered yet again another robust quarterly performance. Kerala/Muzaffarpur BOT collection per day stood at Rs 1.8/2.2mn vs. Rs 1.9/2.7mn QoQ. KNR is in advance stage of selling Kerala BOT. For 3 HAM projects Rs 1.7bn investment, KNR expects to receive Rs 3.3bn over the next 4yrs. Strong balance sheet, periodic BOT/HAM equity churn and robust execution capability reinforces our positive stance on KNR. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Slowdown in government ordering (2) Higher crude and cement prices (3) Increase in interest rates and (4) Further liquidity tightening in the financial sector. We maintain BUY on KNR with SOTP-based TP of Rs 378/sh (valuing core EPC business 18x FY21EPS at Rs 319/sh, Subsidiaries Rs 60/sh). KNR delivered yet another robust quarter with Revenue/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 10/20/35% respectively.

KNR's order book (OB) was at a strong | 6,518.8 crore (including the recently won HAM project and Karnataka State Highways Improvement Project (KSHIP) HAM project), implying order book-to-bill ratio of 3.2x (on TTM basis). The OB consists of | 5,544.6 crore from roads division and | 972.8 crore from irrigation. On new orders front, it won Mallanna Sagar irrigation project worth | 850 crore in September, 2019. KNR is targeting another HAM order worth | 1,000-1,500 crore in FY20E. With this, we expect revenues to grow at 19% CAGR to | 3,031.1 crore in FY19-21E....

KNR has entered into share purchase agreement with Cube highways for 4 HAM projects wherein KNR will receive `3.58 bn against its equity investment of `2.0 bn (51% share). The average deal valuation works out at 1.8x P/B. Cube Highways will be investing 49% equity (1.9 bn) out of total requirement of 3.9 bn during construction period. On achieving CoD, Cube Highways will acquire 25% equity stake out of 51% from KNR and will acquire remaining 26% after expiry of lock in period (~2 years) post CoD. Thus, acquiring 100% stake from KNR....

Keeping in view of FY19 s high earnings base, we expect the earnings to normalize during FY19-21E with a revenue growth of 19.6 percent CAGR coupled with EBITDA margin of around 16.5 percent.

KNR delivered inline financial performance though execution could have been better. Delay in ADs impacted the same (Rs 500mn of work could not be billed). While we have cut our FY20E Revenue estimate by 7.1% to factor in back ended ADs, new wins in irrigation segment of Rs 8.5bn will drive EBIDTA margins higher. This has resulted in 1.3% cut to your FY20E EPS and 3.5% increase to our FY21E EPS. Kerala/Muzaffarpur BOT collection per day stood at Rs 1.9/2.7mn vs. Rs 1.8/2.4mn QoQ. KNR for its total Rs 2bn investment in 4HAM projects expects to receive Rs 3.6bn from Cube Highways. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Slowdown in government ordering (2) Higher crude and cement prices (3) Increase in interest rates and (4) Tightening liquidity in the financial sector. We maintain BUY on KNR with an increased SOTP-based TP of Rs 375/sh (valuing core EPC business 18x FY21EPS at Rs 315/sh, Subsidiaries Rs 60/sh) vs. Rs 363/sh earlier. KNR delivered Revenue/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 11/(2)/5%.

Soft Performance; Healthy Recovery on the Cards KNR Constructions (KNRC) has reported a soft performance in 1QFY20, mainly led by delay in AD for its key HAM projects and general slowdown in execution due to elections. Revenue declined by 17% YoY and 35% QoQ to Rs4.6bn, while EBITDA stood at Rs900mn (-18% YoY and -38% QoQ) vs. our estimate of Rs1bn. EBITDA margin continued to remain healthy at 19.4% mainly supported by higher revenue contribution from near-completion projects having highmargin components and the impact of IndAS 116. However, soft revenue booking along with higher finance cost and higher tax resulted in steep 36% YoY decline in net profit to Rs477mn. Current order book at Rs46.3bn (2.3x of TTM revenue) compared to Rs40bn in FY19 provides...

KNR Constructions' (KNRC) Q1FY20 revenue dropped 17% YoY to Rs 4.6bn, >20% under estimates due to deferred AD award.