Jubilant Pharmova Ltd. share price target

Jubilant Pharmova’s (Jubilant) Q2FY23 performance was a mixed bag with revenue declining 3.5% YoY to Rs16bn due to generics business and tapering of covid-related revenues but ahead of our estimated sales of Rs15bn.

Jubilant Pharmova’s (Jubilant) Q1FY23 missed our estimates on the profitability front, while reported revenue was as expected. Revenues declined 11.2/5.0% YoY/QoQ to Rs14.5bn due to lower CDMO sales with covid-related deals tapering off. EBITDA margin declined 970bps/290bps YoY/QoQ to 13.3% (I-Sec: 15.5%) and adjusted PAT declined 70.7% YoY to Rs470mn.

Revenue break up (FY21)- Formulations - 24%, Radiopharma and allergy therapy 38% and CDMO & API 33% Q3FY22 Results: Generics and CDMO business were affected due to multiple headwinds leading to reduction in operating leverage....

Jubilant Pharmova (JP) delivered 3QFY22 earnings far below our expectations, led by a weak Generics / Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) business and a sharp reduction in operating leverage. While the Radiopharma business posted YoY growth in 3QFY22, the recent surge in COVID cases has impacted the business on a QoQ basis. We cut our FY22E/FY23E/FY24E EPS estimate by 40%/45%/35% to factor in a) the adverse impact in the Generics business due to an import alert at Roorkee, b) pricing pressure in the US market, c) lower COVID-driven business, d) the...

Formulations - 24% of FY21 revenues, Radiopharma and allergy therapy 38% and CDMO & API 33% of sales Q2FY22 Results: Below I-direct estimates, especially on the CDMO front....

JP delivered in line earnings, despite a better than expected revenue in 1QFY22. The COVID-related business led to a strong YoY revenue growth. However, reduced number of lung procedures in the Radiopharma segment, increased price erosion in the Sartans portfolio, and price erosion in the base portfolio in the Generics segment led to lower-than-expected profitability, offsetting benefits of higher revenue. We have reduced our FY22E/FY23E EPS estimate by 14% each to factor in: a) delay in potential products on account of the import alert at Roorkee, b)...

Jubilant Pharmova (JP) hosted an investor/analyst meet to discuss the business and strategic initiatives in key business segments. With the COVID disruption behind in key markets, JP expects radiopharma sales...

Q4FY21 revenues were flat at | 1580 crore, up 0.7% YoY amid continued Covid-19 induced impact on radiopharma segment. Specialty pharma (which comprises Radiopharma) de-grew 23.5% YoY to | 602 crore. Generics remained flat at | 309 crore whereas CDMO segment grew 48% YoY to | 574 crore. Contract research & development grew 10% YoY to | 94 crore. EBITDA margins were down 419 bps YoY at 23.7% amid higher other...

Radiopharma business recovery key for better outlook Motilal Oswal values your support in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2021 for...

IPM is struggling for growth above 10% even after MoM abating COVID concerns and with MRs, physician activities almost reaching pre-COVID level. We believe key reasons for growth below par are (i) subdued new prescription (Rx) leading to volume de-growth (ii) digital marketing yield going south and (iii) sustained lower demand of acute products. Cardiac and anti-diabetic growth takes a breather in Jan-21 at 8.8% and 5.3% after reporting double digit growth in most months during lockdown. While amongst top therapies Gastro and VMN reported double digit growth of 14%...

Jubilant Ingrevia Limited (LSI) to list on exchanges between 18-25th March-21. Net debt for Pharma and LSI stands at Rs20bn and Rs5bn. We assign Accumulate rating to Jubilant Pharmova v/s earlier Accumulate for Jubilant Life Sciences (Pharma and LSI). We increase our earnings estimate...

Jubilant Life Sciences (JLS) delivered higher-than-expected 3QFY21 earnings, led by better traction in a) the Contract Manufacturing Organization (CMO) / Generics category of the Pharma segment and b) Nutritional products in the Life Science Ingredient (LSI) business. Post the demerger of LSI with Jubilant Ingrevia from 1st Feb'21, the segment is classified as discontinued operations'; JLS has been renamed Jubilant Pharmova (JP), which would now comprise the Specialty Pharma, CMO, Generics, Contract Research and Development, and Drug Discovery businesses....

Despite Covid-related challenges in H1, the management expects no material impact on FY21 performance due to strong demand recovery and new business sign-ups. Rest of the fiscal is expected to post strong growth across all segments and better margins amid cost rationalisation measures. Going ahead, we expect pharma segment to be back on the growth track thanks to consistency, visibility in all three segments- specialty, CDMO, generics. A key monitorable in the segment would be developments on the five contract manufacturing agreements that the company has signed for...

EV/EBITDA (FY22E) multiple assigned to pharmaceutical segment and bring in line with peers on better earnings outlook led by opportunities in Remdesivir API and formulations. We also increase our earnings estimate by...

Jubilant Life Sciences (JLS) delivered higher-than-expected 2QFY21 earnings, led by better traction in a) the CMO/Generics category in the Pharma segment and b) the Life Science Chemical category in the Life Science...

We reduce earnings estimate of JUBILANT by 23%17.5%11.6% for FY21/22/23E due to weak and inconsistent performance of its Pharmaceutical segment (65% revenue and 78% EBITDA contribution in FY20) whose key contributors Radio pharma and Allergy are currently witnessing lower volumes caused by pandemic in US. Radiopharma being a hospital driven...

We expect a 4% earnings CAGR over FY2022, led by a 2.5%/3.5% sales CAGR in Specialty Pharma / Specialty Intermediates-Nutritional Products as well as a steady EBITDA margin. The earnings CAGR is partially impacted due to COVID-19-led temporary slowdown in the Radiopharma, CDMO, and Life We value JLS at 9x EV/EBITDA for the Pharma business and 4x EV/EBITDA for the LSI business, arriving at target price of INR975 on an SOTP basis. Overall, we expect a 4% earnings CAGR over FY2022, led by a 2.5%/3.5% sales CAGR in Specialty Pharma / Specialty Intermediates-Nutritional Products as well as a steady EBITDA margin. The earnings CAGR is partially impacted due to a We value JLS at 9x EV/EBITDA for the Pharma business and 4x EV/EBITDA for the LSI business, arriving at target price of INR975 on an SOTP basis.