JSW Energy Ltd. share price target

Dismal Show on Rising Global Spot Coal Prices & Lower PLF JSW Energy (JSWEL) continued to report a dismal performance in 1QFY19 with its PBT declining by 27% YoY to Rs2.4bn in line with our estimates. Reported PAT grew by 5.7% YoY to Rs2.2bn owing to lower effective tax rate of 9.8% (vs. 33.5% in 1QFY18) on deferred tax benefits. We maintain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs62. Higher Realisation Drives Revenue Growth; Consolidated PLF Declines JSWEL's revenue rose by 4% YoY to Rs24.4bn owing to 11% YoY rise in overall realisation to Rs3.9/ unit despite 4.7% YoY fall in generation. It generated 6,086mn units in 1QFY19 (vs. 6,400mn units...

Revenue grew by 32.98% to Rs. 2360.56 Cr in Q1FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. JSW Energy Ltd Q1FY19 results Comment

28 July 2018 JSW Energys (JSWE) 1QFY19 EBITDA was down 11% YoY to INR7.8b (est. PAT however increased 5% YoY to INR2.3b (est. ~INR1.5b) on lower interest cost and tax rate, partly offset by lower other income and higher depreciation. Net debt (ex-acceptances) was unchanged QoQ. Generation declined ~5% YoY (+40% QoQ) to 6.1BU, driven by ~26% YoY decline in hydro generation due to unfavorable hydrology. Water flow is expected to be low this year due to weather, which will impact generation at its hydro assets. Generation at Ratnagiri increased ~31% YoY (~41% QoQ) to ~2BU, on higher merchant sales. Fuel cost in standalone (S/A) increased ~2% QoQ to INR3.5/kWh on higher imported coal prices and currency depreciation.

JSW Energy (JSWE) is part of the JSW Group of companies headed by Sajjan Jindal. JSWE operates 4,531 MW (Thermal 3140 MW & Hydel - 1,391 MW) of power generation capacity with the vision to achieve 10,000 MW in power generation by 2020. Company is looking to add more capacity through in-organic growth initiatives. In addition, the company also has operational transmission assets (165kms) in Maharashtra, owns a majority stake (93.3%) in a coal mining company in South Africa and a power-trading arm. In a JV with Toshiba, JSWE has established a power equipment manufacturing unit...

EBITDA margin contracted by 614bps to 27.9% in 4QFY18 vs. 34.1% in 4QFY17 due to increase in global coal prices. Adjusting for JPVL's liability, its net debt reduced by Rs31.06bn in FY18. Cost of debt dipped by 114bps YoY in 4QFY18, which brought down borrowing cost to Rs3.2bn from...

Q3 EBITDA was exactly in line with our estimate at Rs 5.8 bn. Despite surge in imported coal prices, earnings was maintained due to higher efficiency (O&M; cost saving) and 20% YoY decline in interest cost.

Maintain REDUCE on High Exposure to Merchant Biz, Rising Coal Prices JSW Energy (JSWEL) has reported 4.7% YoY growth in revenue to Rs19.9bn in 3QFY18 owing to higher generation (+6.5% YoY) and other income (+74% YoY to Rs0.87bn). Led by higher realisation and other income, JSWEL's PAT zoomed by 181% YoY to Rs506mn compared to Rs180mn in 3QFY17. Proposed foray into electric vehicle business announced during 1QFY18 Conference Call having the least cash inflow visibility may warrant a de-rating of the stock, in our view. Rolling over our estimates to FY20E, we maintain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs74 (from Rs72 earlier)....

Consolidated generation increased 6.5% YoY to 4.9BU, driven by ~25% YoY generation increase at Ratnagiri (shutdown impact in the base quarter). Interest cost declined ~120bp YoY/~30bp QoQ to ~9%, led by refinancing of loans. Gross debt reduced by ~INR25b in 9MFY18 on operating cash flows and a reduction in debtor days (26 days w.r.t 4QFY17). Against advance of ~INR10b to JPVL, it has adjusted INR2.4b from payments to be made to JPVL. JSWE is in discussion with banks for the recovery of the balance. Operating cost (ex-fuel) declined ~2% YoY, despite higher generation, on various efficiency measures

We met the management of JSW Energy (JSWE) and came back bullish on the stock. BIG Picture: We foresee an era of predictable earnings (100% PPAs and 25% imported coal vs. 45% currently) and accelerated growth driven by acquisition of stressed assets.

Looking ahead, we expect the demand scenario to revive in 2HFY18 in Southern India, which has been remaining lower for last couple of months. We believe expiry of high-rate PPAs and rise in global spot coal prices would drag its profitability. Further, the proposed foray into electric vehicle business offers least cash inflow visibility in near to medium-term in the absence of any expertise to compete with the established auto players, which might warrant a de-rating of the stock. Thus, we downgrade our recommendation on the stock to REDUCE from HOLD with...