Mahindra Logistics Ltd. share price target

Mahindra Logistics (MLL)’s revenue grew ~14% YoY to INR15.9b in 3QFY25, in line with our estimate.

Rivigo's turnaround & industry tailwinds to boost profits

We retain BUY on Mahindra Logistics Limited (MLL) with a revised PT of Rs. 560, factoring in downwardly revised estimates, while it remains on a growth path.

Mahindra Logistics Limited’s (MLL) Q2FY25 EBITDA performance undershot our/consensus estimates by 6.2%/23.6%. Key points: 1) Network services, which is ~18% of overall business, grew 46.1% YoY while 3PL grew by 6.8%. 2) Gross margins
improved for network services.

We retain BUY on Mahindra Logistics Limited (MLL) with a revised PT of Rs. 632, rolling forward our
valuation to H1FY2027E earnings, while it remains on a growth path across businesses.

MLL's performance, QoQ, has improved. Overall, EBITDA of INR 663mn (down 0.5% YoY) was 19.7%/1.7% above our/Street’s estimates.

Mahindra Logistics (MLL)’s 1QFY25 revenue grew ~10% YoY to INR14.2b (in line). EBITDA margin came in at 4.7% (vs. our est. of 4.5%), down 50bp YoY but up 80bp QoQ. EBITDA was flat YoY at INR663m (in line) in 1QFY25.

Mahindra Logistics’ (MLL) Q4FY24 EBITDA was slightly above our estimates and marginally below street’s expectations.

Mahindra Logistics (MLL)’s 4QFY24 revenue grew by ~14% YoY to INR14.5b
(in line). EBITDA margin came in at 3.9% (in line), down 100bp YoY and up
20bp QoQ. EBITDA decreased 11% YoY to INR566m (in line). MLL posted a
net loss of INR128m vs. INR8m in 4QFY23 (our estimate of INR6m loss).

Mahindra Logistics Limited (MLL) reported marginally higher consolidated revenue at Rs. 1,451 crore (up 14% y-o-y), led by healthy growth in its core standalone business (mainly 3PL, revenue up 12% y-o-y) and express business (up 26% y-o-y), while the freight business witnessed a sequential improvement (up 15% q-o-q)

Mahindra Logistics’ (MLL) Q2FY24 EBITDA was significantly below our and street’s expectations. Key points: 1) Express business was underwhelming with EBITDA-level loss widening QoQ to INR 244mn; 2) warehousing & solutions revenue was impacted by a churn; however, gross margin improved 25% YoY; 3) freight forwarding business was impacted by a significant decline in ocean freight rates and deferment of volumes from some telecom contracts.

Mahindra Logistics’ (MLL) Q1FY24 EBITDA was in line with our estimates; however, it was 3.3% below consensus estimates. Key points: 1) Overall revenue grew 7.8% YoY led by growth in both SCM and mobility businesses on the back of improved performance in 3PL and network services; 2) freight-forwarding business continues to face headwinds YoY.

Mahindra Logistics’ (MLL) Q4FY23 EBITDA of Rs637mn (up 16% YoY) was in line with our estimates; however, it missed street estimates by 7%. Key takeaways include: 1) Mixed quarter for 3PL division as automotive and manufacturing sectors contributed to growth while consumer and e-commerce lagged.