ITC Ltd. share price target

Expected dividend yield of 5-6% over the next two years and the apparent relief of cigarette sales bouncing back to near pre-COVID levels are not clear positives due to (a) persistent global ESG concerns on cigarettes (85% of EBIT in FY20), (b) overhang of further GST increase on cigarettes, (c) ITCs valuation premium to global tobacco majors like Philip Morris (trading at 15.2x one-year forward P/E) and BAT (at 8.1x), and (d) continuance of weak earnings trajectory (6.6% PBT CAGR over the last 5 years). PAT growth has still been better in high single-digits led by the Expected dividend yield of 5-6% over the next two years and the apparent relief of cigarette sales bouncing back to near pre-COVID levels are not clear positives due to (a) persistent global ESG concerns on cigarettes (85% of EBIT in FY20), (b) overhang of further GST increase on cigarettes, (c) ITCs valuation premium to global tobacco majors like Philip Morris (trading at 15.2x one-year forward P/E) and BAT (at 8.1x), and (d) continuance of weak earnings trajectory (6.6% PBT CAGR over the last 5 years).

Q1FY21 revenues grew 14% YoY to | 1671 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1651 crore) mainly due to 18.9% YoY growth in biosimilars to | 692 crore. The Generics segment grew 16.1% YoY to | 599 crore. Research services segment remained flat YoY at | 422 crore. EBITDA margins contracted 512 bps YoY to 24.7% (I-direct estimate: 22.2%) mainly due to lower gross margins and higher R&D; costs. EBITDA declined 5.5% YoY to | 413 crore against I-direct estimate of | 366 crore. Adjusted PAT declined 27.6% YoY to | 149 crore (I-direct estimate: | 127 crore). Delta vis--vis EBITDA was due...

A 970bps decline in margin in the cigarette business indicates that the product mix was unfavorable and economy brand contribution must have increased during the quarter. Significant increase in duty has resulted in widening of price gap between ITC and smuggled cigarettes. We believe that this would continue to pressurize volume growth even after lockdown re-opens. FMCG business exhibited satisfactory performance with 10% revenue increase and 120bps margin expansion....

Discretionary OOH categories declined 25%, Margins expand 170bps to 7.6% ITC PAT beat has been led by better than expected performance in Cigarettes, Agri and Paperboard business and 44% growth in other income. FMCG story remains intact with 34% sales growth and 170bps margin expansion led by segments like Atta, Biscuits, Noodles, Dairy and Hygiene products. Cigarette business is expected to report improved nos as June exit sale show recovery close to Pre Covid sales. Hotels business is expected to remain under significant pressure in near term with poor chance of being in black for next...

ITC is a market leader in traditional businesses of Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards, Packaging and Agri-Exports and is rapidly gaining share in the FMCG segment. ITC is a market leader in traditional businesses of Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards, Packaging and Agri-Exports

With operations back on track and strong cash flows generation, the company is expected to fare better than its peers. We continue to remain optimistic on ITC's performance and reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a TP of Rs. 260 based on SOTP valuation. Drastic demand drop impacts topline Q4FY20 standalone revenue stood at Rs. 11,300cr (-6.3% YoY). FMCG revenue declined 5.0% YoY to Rs. 8,314cr, of which Cigarettes business revenue stood at Rs. 5,131cr (-6.5% YoY). Hotels revenue dropped 8.4% YoY to Rs. 466cr, while from Agri...

ITC's Q4FY2020 performance was affected by lockdown with revenues declining by 6.4% and adjusted PAT stood flat. Cigarette business revenue declined by ~6.5%, largely due to a 10-11% dip in cigarette sales volumes. The sales volumes stood almost flat in January-February. Non-cigarette FMCG business declined by ~3% (comparable revenue growth excluding stationary business and hived-off the retail business stood at 5%). Revenue and PAT grew by 2.2% and 23% (aided cut in the corporate tax rate) in FY2020. Manufacturing of essentials such as personal wash, hygiene...

ITC Ltd.s profit beats estimates, lower tax rate led to growth in profits ITC net sales fell 8% to Rs 11782.16 crore for quarter ended Mar20 compared to corresponding previous year period. The company operating margins increased 40 bps to 38.2%. As a result operating profits fell 7% to Rs 4503.62 crore. Other income of the company fell 3% to Rs 667.76 crore. Interest cost was Rs 14.68 crore...

ITC's Q4FY20 print was largely in line with our estimates on key metrics, but positively surprised us on the Gross Margins front. We note, Cigarette volumes likley declined by 9-10% vs our/street estimate of 4%/7-8% decline in Q4.

Though cigarettes sales have returned to previous levels on a daily sales basis by mid-June after lockdown was slowly lifted in most states, we believe ITC would have lost 40-45 days of sales in Q1FY21. FMCG business saw a 2.8% sales dip during the quarter with supply chain & manufacturing disruption in the last 10-15 days of March 2020. However, the business is likely to witness sharp growth in Q1FY21 given most of the product portfolio consist of essentials (packaged food & soaps). The hotels business was worst hit due to lockdown with occupancy levels coming down from ~65%...