ITC Ltd. share price target

We revise our rating to HOLD on the stock with an upside potential of 8% from the CMP.

Significant tax hike in cigarettes after a brief period of stable tax: Government has announced significant increase in the tax rate on cigarettes in the range of 20-55% (depending on various sizes) after a brief period of stable tax environment over FY22-25. Revised Excise duty on the cigarette stands in the range of Rs2,100/1000 sticks to Rs8,500/1000 sticks depending on the size of the cigarettes. This will be over and above the GST rate hike to 40% from 28% on cigarettes. Tax hike on cigarettes and other tobacco products will be effective from 1st Feb, 2026 with end of...

The government in its recent notification has increased taxes on cigarettes, effective from 1st Feb’26. New rates will increase the taxes on cigarettes by ~50% (assuming NCCD continues).

*over or under performance to benchmark index In Q2FY26, ITC's standalone revenue declined 2.7% YoY to Rs. 19,148cr, due to a sharp drop in agri business exports. However, core segmentscigarettes and...

Resilient cigarette volumes, steady FMCG growth, and expected margin recovery from easing input costs underpin our positive outlook.

About the stock: ITC is diversified consumption play with presence in businesses such as cigarettes, FMCG, Agri and Paperboard, Paper & Packaging (PPP) in India. Its strategy hinges towards utilising funds generated from cash cow cigarette business in improving the growth of FMCG and other businesses. The company...

With an upside potential of 15% from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

ITC’s Q1FY26 performance stood below our estimates across the board, with
revenue growth below our estimates by 3.6% mainly led by higher intersegment
adjustments, while EBITDA and Adjusted net profit stood below our estimates led by poor operational performance.

ITC posted a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with strong revenue growth driven by cigarette and agri business, while margins declined sharply and missed estimates.

With an upside potential of 18% from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

ITC sustained healthy performance in core segments in a tepid consumption environment, though margins remained under pressure.

ITC’s net revenues (including other operating income) grew by 9.6% y-o-y to Rs. 17,248 crore driven by 6% y-o-y growth in the cigarette business’s net revenues and a 17.7% y-o-y growth in the agribusiness’s revenue.

Sales 3% higher vs consensus likely on strong cigarette volumes. EBITDA 5% above cons. on higher margins

We are upgrading ITC from Accumulate to BUY as we expect current margin/growth pressures to subside post 1H26. ITC is suffering margin pressure in cigarettes (high leaf tobacco prices and volume focused strategy), Paper (High wood prices and dumping) and FMCG (Tepid volumes, high input costs and hit in stationary business). However, we expect the scenario to change as leaf tobacco prices have started softening in current season, new wood supplies, integration of century paper and bottomed out margins (~40%...

With an upside potential of 16% from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

ITC delivered consolidated revenue growth (ex-hotel business) of 9% YoY (beat) in 3QFY25, mainly led by the cigarette business. EBITDA grew by 2% YoY to INR63.6b. APAT declined 7% YoY to INR48b.

Sales were 3% higher vs consensus likely reflecting strong cigarette volumes. EBITDA was 5% below expectations due to inflation

ITC will complete the demerger of its hotel business effective on 1st January, 2025 with the hotel business getting listed as a separate entity on 6th January, 2025. ITC will have 40% stake in the hotel business, while the remaining 60% will be distributed to ITC’s shareholders in proportion to their holdings.