Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. share price target

IOCL's Q2FY21 EBITDA of Rs 94bn (2.6x YoY) was above estimates.

Company debt further decreased on a QoQ basis to INR915b in 2QFY21 (from INR986b in 1QFY21 and INR1,165b in 4QFY20). India is seeing a significant increase in vehicular traffic movement, with gradual revival in domestic air travel as well. In Sep'20, petrol witnessed consumption growth of +3.3% (v/s -7.5% in Aug'20). Diesel still recorded decline of 6.0% YoY, although much lower than 20.7% in Aug'20. We continue to prefer IOCL, which, despite having annual capex of ~INR260b (the highest among the OMCs), is expected to report ~30% cumulative FCF yield over...

Depreciation rose 10% to Rs 2613.12 crore. PBT was down 42% to Rs 2983.38 crore. Tax expense decreased 54% to Rs 854.15 crore. PAT was down 35% to Rs 2129.23 crore. Considering share of profit or losses of associates and minority interest, net profit of the company reported 40% fall to Rs 2226.8 crore. Promoter shareholding remains unchanged at 51.5% at the end of June'20 quarter compared...

IOC's Q1FY21 result was lower than our expectations owing to higher inventory losses against expectation of gains and lower than expected volume. IOC's crude throughput declined 25.2% YoY to 12.9mmt (vs IDBIest of 13.8mmt) while sales volume dipped 27% YoY to 16.5mmt (IDBIest 17.4mmt). Robust profit at marketing division was offset by huge loss at refining and sharp decline in profit of the pipeline business. Reported GRM came at a negative US$1.98/bbl whereas normalized GRM was US$4.3/bbl (inventory loss of US$6.8/bbl). The company highlighted that Q2FY21 should witness an inventory gains as average cost of oil is US$32.6/bbl. We largely keep our estimates and target...

Hike in retail prices support marketing margins Global oil prices fell to multi-year lows in April due to a sharp reduction in demand. With increase in demand following a resumption of economic activities, oil prices recovered. Brent crude oil prices on a closing basis increased by US$19.4/bbl QoQ to US$40.9/bbl. IOC reported marketing inventory gain of | 1392 crore. Core marketing margins were stable during the quarter as the company increased petrol & diesel prices post excise duty hike. IOC's marketing sales de-grew 29.2% YoY to 15.2 MMT (our estimate:...

Indian Oil net sales fell 6% to Rs 118007.32 crore for the quarter ended Mar20 compared to corresponding previous year period. This included subsidy from the government of Rs 133.37 crore down 77% on a y-o-y basis. Excluding compensation from the government net sales of the...

IOC's Q4FY20 result was impacted negatively by higher inventory losses (Rs184.8 bn) and higher forex loss (Rs27.2 bn). Further, marketing and petchem EBITDA was a drag to profits owing to lower marketing margins, lower volume and lower polymer delta. Reported GRM came at a negative US$9.6/bbl whereas normalised GRM reported by IOC was US$2.2/bbl (inventory loss of US$17.9/bbl). Refinery utilisation has already reached to nearly 90% in first three weeks of June (40% in Apr and ~62% in May) and management expect it to normalise within a month. We expect GRM of US$3/bbl and US$4/bbl in FY21 and FY22 respectively while marketing margin to remain stable on a...

A sharp reduction in oil demand owing to Covid-19 outbreak resulted in a significant drop in crude oil prices. As a result, average Brent crude oil prices declined by US$12/bbl QoQ to US$50.6/bbl with closing Brent price at US$21.5/bbl. On account of the same, the company reported marketing inventory loss of | 2291 crore. However, core marketing margins were relatively steady during the quarter. IOC's marketing sales de-grew 4.5% YoY to 20.7 MMT (our estimate: 19 MMT) on account of lower diesel sales. Going forward, considering the extended lockdown in Q1FY21E, we expect...

25 June 2020 The company posted huge inventory loss of INR185b (refining at INR162b and marketing at INR23b) during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for inventory stood at INR214.1b (v/s INR74.0b in 4QFY19 and INR50.3b in 3QFY20). Reported EBITDA came in at INR29.3b and forex loss for the quarter was at INR27.2b. Higher interest cost was offset by higher other income. The company revalued its inventory at the end of the quarter and recorded an exceptional item of INR113b (of which INR80b was refining and INR33b was marketing); thus, PBT came in at loss of INR136.1b. IOCL stated that total inventory loss of INR185b also includes revaluation loss. IOCL has moved to a lower tax rate and re-measured its DTL. Reported PAT stood at loss of INR51.9b.

India's petroleum product consumption surged 47% MoM (21% YoY) to 14.6mmt in May'20 as fuels across segments exhibited resurgent growth in tandem with the Indian economy's emergence from the world's strictest lockdown.