India Cements (ICEM)'s 2QFY21 results highlight the benefit of high cement prices in South India, which led to the highest EBITDA/t since FY14 at INR1,114/t (+102% YoY). Volumes, however, declined 21% YoY due to weak cement demand in South India and market share loss. We raise our FY21/FY22E EPS by 28%/2%, factoring in a strong realization outlook on the back of a strong production discipline in South. However, we retain our Neutral rating on expected market share loss and a valuation of 9.4x FY22E EV/EBITDA, pricing in strong margins....

24 June 2020 India Cement (ICEM)s 4QFY20 results highlight the continued loss in market share, with volumes down 20% YoY v/s market decline of ~10% YoY. We note that ICEM has reported the lowest EBITDA in close to a decade. We lower our FY21/FY22 estimates to factor weaker volume trends. Following sharp appreciation in the past six months, we find the stock fairly valued at 9.3x FY22 EV/EBITDA and USD60/t of capacity, and rating. due to the impact of COVID-19 and market share loss. Blended realization declined 3% QoQ (7% YoY) to INR4,352/t. Thus, net sales fell 26% YoY to was primarily due to lower realization and higher freight costs. As a result, EBITDA was down 65% (48% QoQ) to INR675m (65% lower than estimated). The EBITDA margin shrank 6.4pp YoY and 4.9pp QoQ to 5.9%. Notably, the company reported the lowest ever EBITDA in close to a The company reported an exceptional expense of INR1.

8 February 2020 India Cements (ICEM) 3QFY20 results highlight the demand slowdown in South India. Overall, volumes declined 10% YoY with pricing down 4% QoQ on demand weakness while EBIDTA/t reduced 12% QoQ led by lower realizations. We maintain our FY20/FY21E estimates and that demand revival in the South and subsequent pricing improvement will remain the key monitorables. Volumes declined 10% YoY to 2.66mt in 3QFY20. Blended realizations declined 4% QoQ to INR4,478/t due to weak prices in the South. Thus, net sales declined 10% YoY to INR11.9b (v/s est. EBITDA/t came in at INR484/t (in-line). However, given the lower volumes, EBITDA was down 5% YoY to INR1.3b (5% lower than est.).

11 November 2019 declined 13% YoY to 2.67mt; blended realizations declined 3% QoQ to INR4,671/t due to weaker prices in the southern markets. Thus, net sales declined 10% YoY to INR12.5b (v/s est. EBITA/t came in at INR552 (higher than est. However, given the weaker volumes, EBITDA was down 5% YoY to INR1.5b (in-line). Margins expanded 0.65pp YoY to 11.8%, while PAT increased 6x YoY to INR87m (v/s est.

Healthy Performance on Firm Realisation; Maintain HOLD India Cements (ICEM) has reported a healthy operating performance in 1QFY20 with EBITDA growing by 55% YoY and 26% QoQ to Rs2.4bn vs. our estimate of Rs2.1bn. Cement EBITDA/tonne stood at Rs752 as against Rs489 in 1QFY19 and Rs552 in 4QFY19, respectively. While average cement realisation increased by 8.6% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs4685/tonne, sales volume de-grew marginally by 1% to 3.04mnT. Notably, cement operating cost/tonne marginally declined by 0.4% QoQ to Rs3,932 mainly led by lower input cost. A consistent increase in higher non-trade sales and tight liquidity conditions especially in the Southern states resulted in further working capital...

Weakness Continues to Persist: Performance continues to remain at the lower end despite improvement inRealizations: The topline for Q4FY19 stood at Rs.15640 Mn as against Rs.13978 Mn during Q4FY18, increased by 12% YoY basis, this was due to rise in cement prices during Feb 2019, by Rs. 50-60 per bag but cost pressure did not ease, the raw material cost raised by 17% YoY basis.

India Cement reported a mixed set of Q4FY19 numbers with topline, volumes beating our estimates but missing estimates on the profitability front. Revenues grew 11.9% YoY to | 1564 crore led by 7.8% YoY growth in volumes to 3.33 MT (vs. I-direct estimate of 3.15 MT). Realisations were at ~| 4,700/t, up 3.8% YoY (vs. I-direct estimate of ~ | 4,645/t). Topline includes | 20.25 crore pertaining to subsidy receivable from Rajasthan government (sanctioned to Trinetra Cement that has been merged with India Cement). EBITDA margins witnessed a 95 bps YoY expansion to 12.3% (vs....

Some Respite From Disappointment, But Sustainability Is Key The India Cements (ICEM) reported a steady operating performance on a weak base in 4QFY19 backed by realisation gain. Cement volume, including clinker, picked up ~8.0% YoY at 3.33mmt (above our estimate of 3.24mmt) helped by the busy season (4Q). Realisation gained ~5.3% YoYat Rs4,672/tn. Effectively, revenues grew by a steady ~12% YoY to ~Rs15.6bn (in line with our estimate of ~Rs15.2bn). Cement revenues grew ~13.6% YoY. Operating costs increased ~2.5% YoY (3% QoQ) to Rs4,119/tn, primarily on account of higher energy costs and raw material expenditure. Realisation gain driven by better cement prices in key ICEM markets led...

Severe Competition in the south had its toll on the operating performanceof the company: The cement sales in the current quarter was at 13.16 Bn ascompared to 12.13 Bn in last year's quarter, registering growth of around 8.5% and the overall volume stood at 29.58 lakh tons for the quarter, as compared to 27.26 lakh tons.

The India Cements (ICEM) reported a weak operating performance in 3QFY19 as the slide in realisation continued. Cement volume continued to pick up with ~8.5% YoY growth at 2.95mnmt (below our estimate of 3.11mnmt). Realisation fell ~2.6% YoY to Rs4,320/tn. Effectively, revenues grew only ~8.5% YoY to ~Rs13.2bn (below our estimate of ~Rs13.9bn). Cement revenues grew only ~6% YoY. Operating costs increased ~5% YoY (flat QoQ) at Rs3,994/tn, primarily on account of higher energy costs. Continued weakness in realisation owing to the demand-supply imbalance in key ICEM markets led to EBITDA margin compression of 360bps YoY to 10.2% YoY. Effectively, EBITDA/tn fell sharply to Rs430/tn,...

11 February 2019 ICEMs volumes grew 9% YoY to 2.96mt (in-line) in 3QFY19. This, however, lagged industry growth, as sales were affected by cyclone in Tamil Nadu. Blended realizations declined 1.3% QoQ (flat YoY) to INR4,450/t (in-line). Net sales, thus, increased 8.5% YoY to INR13.16b. Cost/t increased 4% YoY, led by an increase in power & fuel cost/t. Blended EBITDA/t declined 26% YoY (-9% QoQ) to (1) Primary market of Tamil Nadu was affected by the cyclone Gaja, which devastated some districts in Nov18. (2) Prices of fuel have started easing after increasing steeply in 3QFY19, the favourable impact of which will be felt over the coming quarters. Volumes grew 13% YoY, with sales increasing 8% YoY. For 4QFY19, we expect volumes to increase 1% YoY, with sales growth of 2% YoY; EBITDA is expected to increase by 14% YoY and PAT to decline by 5% YoY.

Sales Volume driven by increase in demand and better capacity utilization: The company operated at 77% of its capacity utilization as comparedto 70% in the same quarter of the previous year.

The India Cements (ICEM) reported a listless operating performance in 2QFY19 because of the sustained fall in realisation. Cement volume continued to pick up with ~14.0% YoY growth at 3.08mnmt (above our estimate of 3.03mnmt). However, realisation continued to decline ~2% YoY to Rs4,508/tn. Effectively, revenues grew only ~9% YoY to ~Rs13.9bn (marginally above our estimate of ~Rs13.7bn). Operating costs were flat YoY (but up 2.2% QoQ) at Rs4,004/tn because of savings in logistics costs and other expenditure. Continued weakness in realisation owing to demand-supply imbalance in key ICEM markets led to EBITDA margin compression of 310bps YoY to 11.2% YoY. Effectively, EBITDA/tn fell sharply to Rs503/tn, down ~24% YoY (in line with our estimate of...

India Cements' Q2FY19 results were operationally ahead of our estimates. However, PAT stayed below our expectations mainly on account of higher interest costs due to forex loss. Revenues increased...

The India Cements (ICEM) reported weak operating performance for 1QFY19 because of the sustained fall in realisation. Cement volume continued to pick up with 15.8% YoY growth at 3.08mnmt (above our estimate of 3.0mnmt). However, realisation continued to decline 10.3% YoY/2.5%QoQ to Rs4,323/tn (below our estimate of Rs4,323/tn). Effectively, revenues grew only ~5% YoY to ~Rs13.6bn (in line with our estimate of ~Rs13.8bn). Operating costs decreased ~5.4% YoY/2.6% QoQ to Rs3,917/tn because of savings in logistics cost and other expenditure. Limited pass-through because of weakness in key ICEM markets led to EBITDA margin compression of 326bps YoY to 11.5% YoY. Effectively, EBITDA/tn stood at Rs510/tn, down...

Better sand availability in Tamil Nadu, higher infra spend to drive growth The recent stay order by the Supreme Court on ban on river sand mining in Tamil Nadu is expected to improve construction activity in coming quarters. The company has 38% of its capacity in Tamil Nadu. Hence, this will be a key beneficiary of the pick-up in demand. Further, apart from Tamil Nadu, a major driver of cement demand in the south market is expected to be the AP and Telangana market. These markets are expected to increase ~15.0% YoY mainly led by higher government spending by both AP, Telangana markets...

The India Cements (ICEM) reported a weak operating performance for 4QFY18 because of the decline in realisation. Cement volume was up 6.4% YoY at 3.09mnmt (below our estimate of 3.34mnmt). However, realisation declined 2% YoY/rose 2%QoQ to Rs4,528/tn (above our estimate of Rs4,324/tn). Effectively, revenues grew only ~4% YoY to ~Rs13.9bn (below our estimate of ~Rs14.5bn). Operating costs increased ~1.1% YoY/5.5% QoQ to Rs4,024/tn because of raw material costs and other expenditure. Limited pass-through because of weakness in key ICEM markets led to EBITDA margin compression of 291bps YoY to 11.3% YoY. Effectively, EBITDA/tn stood at Rs510/tn, down ~23.7% YoY (below our estimate of...

India Cements (ICL) has reported a subdued set of numbers for 4QFY18. Its reported EBITDA declined by ~17% YoY and ~5% QoQ to Rs1.6bn (vs. our estimate of Rs1.7bn) owing to higher-thanestimated rise (+5.5% QoQ) in cement operating cost/tonne to Rs3,920 led by higher employee cost, Freight and Power & Fuel cost. Cement EBITDA/tonne came in at Rs499 as against Rs712 and Rs628 in 4QFY17 and 3QFY18, respectively. However, net profit stood at Rs353mn (vs. our estimate of Rs200mn) led by lower tax and interest cost. Whilst receivables declined to Rs6.3bn (vs. Rs7.9bn in 1HFY18), which aided ICL to sequentially reduce its gross debt by Rs2.3bn, on YoY basis its debt rose by Rs2bn to Rs31.3bn again reaching the peak witnessed in FY15. We believe that ICL's inability to pare down debt amid no capacity expansion may not warrant any...

India Cements (ICL) has reported a better-than-estimated performance mainly owing to substantial reduction in staff cost and lower-than-expected freight cost. EBITDA stood at Rs1.67bn (-11% YoY and -8% QoQ) vs. our estimate of Rs1.3bn. Cement EBITDA/tonne stood at Rs628 vs. Rs694 and Rs647 in 3QFY17 and 2QFY18, respectively. ICL's operating cost/tonne (cement) dipped by 4% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rs3,715 due to lower staff cost (-17% YoY and -28% QoQ) and freight cost/tone (-6% QoQ). Sales volume stood at 2.73mnT (+0.6% YoY and +0.9% QoQ). However, average NCR dipped by 5% each in YoY and QoQ to Rs4,343/tonne. On the flip side, continuing to move northwards gross debt surged by Rs1.0bn QoQ to Rs33.6bn (Rs29.2bn...

India Cements (ICL) numbers are not directly comparable to our estimates as the company has reported sales net of GST while our estimates were including taxes. However, in absolute terms EBITDA and PAT remained in line with our estimates. Revenues decreased 3.0% YoY to |1,268.3 crore in Q2FY18 due to accounting change as previous figures are including excise while Q2FY18 number are net of GST. ICL reported a volume growth of 12.5% YoY mainly led by merger of Trishul and Trinetra cement. However, on organic basis volumes...