Hindustan Zinc Ltd. share price target

Hindustan Zinc (HZ)’s revenue was INR86b (YoY/QoQ: +18%/+4%) vs. our estimate of INR82b.

Regaining momentum

In 2QFY25, revenue stood at INR83b (+22% YoY/+2% QoQ) against our estimate of INR78b. The YoY growth was driven by better metal and silver volumes and zinc and silver prices.

Hindustan Zinc’s (HZ) 4QFY24 revenue stood at INR75b (down 11% YoY) vs.
our est. of INR80b. The sequential revenue growth was driven by better zinc
volumes, which offset lower lead & silver volumes and lower metal prices.

Revenue stood in line at INR88b (up 27% YoY and 10% QoQ) in 4QFY22, led by higher LME prices, but was partly offset by flat lead prices. EBITDA stood in line at INR50b (up 28% YoY and 14% QoQ). Power and fuel costs stood at INR8b, up 10% QoQ, led by higher coal prices. Other expenses rose 11% QoQ to INR19b, but was partly offset by inventory accumulation. PAT grew 18% YoY and 8% QoQ to INR29b, marginally below our estimate of INR30b due to lower than estimated other income and higher taxes, which Financials & valuations (INR b)...

Hindustan Zinc (HZL) reported yet another quarter of strong EBITDA at INR43.7b, up 31% QoQ, driven by 23% higher metal sales and 12% rise in Zinc LME price. Silver sales also increased 14% QoQ to 173 tonnes. We believe the stock already priced in 1.2mt of metal sales for FY23, but it is not factoring in the probability of acquisition of the international Zinc assets of Vedanta at the peak of the zinc cycle. This could impact the quality of the assets, earnings and balance sheet of the company. We maintain our Neutral rating with a TP of INR311 valuing HZL at 7x FY23 EV/EBITDA....

We expect company to gain from higher production, improved prices, and cost control measures. However, given limited upside potential, we reiterate our HOLD rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs....

HZL has a huge reserve base, which provides strong earnings visibility. During the year, total ore reserves increased from 114.7 million tonnes (MT) at the end of FY20 to 150.3 MT at the end of FY21 while mineral resources totalled 297.6 MT. Total R&R; increased to 448 MT as HZL replenished more than it consumed during the year. Total contained metal in ore reserves is 9.16 MT of zinc, 2.55 MT of lead and 295.5 million ounces of silver. The mineral resources contains 14.9 MT of zinc, 6.3 MT of lead and 618.7 million ounces of silver. At current mining rates, the R&R; underpins metal...

Growing demand, recovery in prices and cost optimization should drive company's growth further. We maintain our rating to HOLD on the stock with a rolled forward target price of Rs. 301 based on 12x FY23E PE. Higher volumes led healthy revenues In Q3FY21, company's revenue grew 27.9% YoY (+6.9%QoQ) to Rs. 5,915cr, largely driven by higher metal volumes and prices. Zinc revenue rose 21.4%YoY to Rs. 4,744cr (+11.6% QoQ) supported by higher Zinc (+6% YoY) and lead volume (+30% YoY), owing to gradual recovery in China as manufacturing activities coming back to...

HZL has a huge reserve base, which provides strong earnings visibility. During the year, total ore reserves increased from 92.6 million tonnes (MT) at the end of FY19 to 114.7 MT at the end of FY20, while mineral resources totalled 288.3 MT. Total R&R; was unchanged at 403 MT from a year ago as ore consumed during the year was replenished. Total contained metal in ore reserves was 7.95 MT of zinc, 2.07 MT of lead and 256.2 million ounces of silver. The mineral resources contain 15.87 MT of zinc, 5.93 MT of lead and 641.8 million ounces of silver. At current mining rates, the R&R; underpins...

Hindustan Zinc (HZ) reported EBITDA tad below our estimates by 3% due to lower volumes. While, earnings beat consensus estimates by 6%. HZ missed its guidance on volumes and ore grade over last 3-4 years due to weaker than assessed ore grade. Ore grade has fallen by ~30% in last 5 years due to lower grade of new mines and reduced share of Rampura Agucha (RA) mines. As the new shafts at both RA and Sindesar Khurd (SK) mines...

Hindustan Zinc (HZ)'s 3QFY21 results were strong, as expected, with EBITDA up 43% YoY on higher volumes and prices. While silver business remained strong with EBIT of INR10.1b (37% of total), zinc realized premiums recovered to pre-COVID levels as the share of domestic volumes improved in 3Q. As major projects near completion, we expect 9% CAGR in HZ volumes over FY21-23E, driving an 18% CAGR in EBITDA. However, we believe this growth is factored in the current valuation and hence we rate it Neutral....

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