Hindustan Zinc Ltd. share price target

Hindustan Zinc (HZ) reported revenue of INR135b (+49% YoY and +23% QoQ) for 4QFY26, beating our estimate of INR116b.

Building the Metal for Tomorrow

Domestic zinc demand is supported by steady growth in steel production, which is *over or under performance to benchmark index projected to reach 300mn tonne per annum by 2030. India's economic outlook remains strong, with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index consistently indicating growth, driven by positive consumer sentiment and sustained robust demand. While zinc and lead prices remain stable, silver's earlier bullish momentum has eased. With prices cooling off from recent highs and volatility rising, the near term outlook for silver has turned uncertain amid ongoing geopolitical risks. The company's expansion plans...

In 3QFY26, revenue stood at INR110b (+28% YoY and QoQ), which was 10% above our estimates. The growth was driven by favorable commodity prices and volume recovery.

Standalone EBITDA increased 7.8% YoY to Rs. 4,426cr as production costs fell, byproducts' realisations went up and the prices of input commodities softened. Reported PAT increased 14.5% YoY to Rs. 2,632cr owing to a growth in improved EBITDA and a fall in finance costs. HZL's revenue growth in the quarter was partially offset by a decline in production due to delay in commissioning of Roaster 6, which has impacted the availability of Calcine *over or under performance to benchmark index affecting company's production. Strong private consumption, capital expenditure and favourable government policies have helped create a positive demand environment that is...

Hindustan Zinc (HZ)’s revenue at INR85.5b (+4% YoY/+10% QoQ) remained largely in line with our est. of INR81b. The growth was driven by better commodity prices, offset by lower volumes.

HZL's revenue was impacted by the decline in sales volume and prices of zinc and lead, *over or under performance to benchmark index with additional pressure coming from planned maintenance work. However, its future growth trajectory is expected to be supported by a favourable outlook for silver prices, a robust cash and cash equivalent and a strategic investment plan. Furthermore, the implementation of cost-saving measures is expected to bolster the company's resilience in a challenging operating environment. While global economic uncertainties persist, the company's exposure to the Indian market, which is exhibiting strong domestic...

1QFY26 revenue declined 4% YoY/15% QoQ to INR77.7b, in line with our est. of INR75.7b. The decline was primarily driven by lower volumes and low commodity prices, offset by higher prices of silver and by-products and stronger dollar.

HZL’s Board has approved a growth capex of ~INR120b (funded through internal accruals and debt) to expand the zinc smelting capacity by 250ktpa at Debari, along with a mines capacity expansion of 330ktpa (Rajpura Dariba - 2.5ktpa and Zawar - 0.8ktpa).

4QFY25 revenue stood at INR90.9b (+20% YoY/+6% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR85.5b. Revenue growth was driven by high metal production, strong zinc and silver prices, stronger dollar, and strategic hedging gains.

Hindustan Zinc (HZ)’s revenue was INR86b (YoY/QoQ: +18%/+4%) vs. our estimate of INR82b.

Regaining momentum

In 2QFY25, revenue stood at INR83b (+22% YoY/+2% QoQ) against our estimate of INR78b. The YoY growth was driven by better metal and silver volumes and zinc and silver prices.

Hindustan Zinc’s (HZ) 4QFY24 revenue stood at INR75b (down 11% YoY) vs.
our est. of INR80b. The sequential revenue growth was driven by better zinc
volumes, which offset lower lead & silver volumes and lower metal prices.