Hindalco Industries Ltd. share price target

Novelis refrained from giving near term guidance amid uncertain tariff situation and elevated scrap pricing; although scrap availability has improved. Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Q4FY25 delivered strong cons operating performance on strong India aluminium business and Novelis. Strong LME, higher alumina prices and lower operating cost aided Indian upstream aluminium business while superior product mix benefitted downstream as volumes were stable. Mgmt. guided flattish costs for Q1 and expect...

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q4FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates. Consolidated EBITDA rose 44% YoY to INR 96bn, mainly due to upstream aluminium (Al) division.

Novelis’ Q4FY25 performance was in line with our estimates. Operating leverage benefits resulted in EBITDA/te rebounding to USD 494, sales volume rose 6% QoQ as beverage can market remains strong.

India aluminum consumption is expected to double to 11.37mt, while copper consumption is likely to grow 2.5x to 2.54mt over the next decade. Hindalco Industries (HNDL), at its annual investors' day, outlined its long-term strategy for both India business and Novelis. Out of already announced USD5bn India capex, HNDL is investing ~USD2bn and USD1.6bn in upstream businesses of aluminum and copper, respectively, while the rest would be spent on various downstream projects and coal mining. With captive coal mines...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

We recently attended Hindalco’s Investor Day 2025 where management unveiled ~$10bn expansion plan for Novelis and India, along with multiple strategic initiatives, which would help strengthen its market leadership.

We attended Hindalco Industries’ (HNDL) Investor Day. Long-term capacity growth aspirations in India, focus on value-added products dovetailing with domestic requirements.

HNDL and its subsidiary, Novelis, are investing ~USD10b in growth projects to significantly boost capacities. In India, HNDL is expanding its aluminum upstream (Aditya smelter 180 KT, alumina refinery 850 KT), downstream (FRP-170 KT, battery enclosures etc), and copper capacities (smelter 300 KT and recycling 50KT), with a total of USD5.2b currently under execution.

We attended the new brand identity exhibition organized by Hindalco (HNDL), showcasing the range of products and solutions it offers. The central theme of the event was sustainability, highlighting HNDL's commitment to eco-friendly practices and sustainable product development to cater to new age requirements and making HNDL greener over the long term. The thrust on specialty alumina was evident due to its wide applications across diverse industries, while HNDL's efforts in new product development to replace imports and other heavier metals are impressive. With rising usage of aluminum...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Q3FY25 delivered strong cons operating performance on strong India upstream AL and copper business. Indian business volumes were stable, higher pricing and lower operating cost benefited Q3 performance. Mgmt. guided for flattish coal costs for Q4 and expect strong upstream EBITDA/t to continue with ~35% of volumes hedged at USD2,600/t. Coal supplies from captive Chakla/ Meenakshi mines to start from Mar'26/ Mar'27 respectively; post which coal cost is expected to decline ~30% from current levels. Novelis Q3 was weak on higher scrap prices during seasonally...

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q3FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates. Consolidated EBITDA
rose 30% YoY to INR 76bn, mainly due to upstream aluminium (Al) division. HNDL secured 12mtpa Meenakshi coal mine, providing a significant boost to coal security.

Hindalco’s 600k-tonne strategic expansion in Bay Minette is on track to be completed in H2 CY26. The recently commissioned 250k-tonne Guthrie facility continues to ramp up automotive sheet ingot casting and the 100ktonne recycling centre in Ulsan (South Korea) has been commissioned.

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.

Novelis has indicated that its Q3FY25 EBITDA could range at USD360-370mn (-21% QoQ; -14% vs Emkay). Q3 shipments are expected to range at 900-910kt – slightly lower than our estimate of 913kt, and 945kt shipments in Q2

Hindalco delivered a strong upstream performance that is on a firm foot vs a starkly different downstream performance with bleak near-term outlook for Novelis, balancing out one another in Q2 and resulting in EBITDA beat of 9.5% at business segment level.

We maintain our BUY rating.

HNDL’s consolidated net sales stood at INR582b (+7 YoY/+2% QoQ) in2QFY25 vs. our est. of INR569b, aided by better realizations and efficiencies in India operations.