Hindalco Industries Ltd. share price target

Outlook and valuation: Lower costs helped Hindalco report substantial improvement in aluminium profitability. Sequential ramp up in aluminium production from its lowcost smeltersandimprovingproductmix(higherproportionofautomotiveshipments)atNovelis...

Hindalco Industries' standalone 4QFY16 EBITDA at Rs11.7bn rose by 38% yoy & 74% qoq beating our estimate of Rs7.3bn. Revenue from Aluminium segment grew 14% yoy & 12% qoq on higher sales, while segmental EBIT margin rose by 351bps yoy & 901bps qoq to 10.9%. Notably, the margin of this segment was at the highest level in eight quarters due to stabilization of new smelters helping in operational efficiency including lower power costs and higher volume. Though revenue from Copper segment dipped 25% yoy (flat qoq) due to 7% yoy decline in volume to 93K tonne owing to operational issues, segmental margin rose by 216bps yoy & 69bps qoq due to firm TC & RC and higher acid...

9 Adjusted EBIDTA was 15% above estimates at US$ 270mn, helped by strong US auto shipmentvolumesandforexbenefitsinSouthAmerica. 9 NetdebtreducedtoUS$4.5bnasofMarch2016vs.US$5bninDecember2015....

Novelis reports strong EBITDA and FCF in 4QFY16 FCF improvement driven by declining capex and higher EBITDA Novelis delivered a strong operational performance in 4QFY16. Adjusted EBITDA...

8 Revenues were 2% below estimates at Rs 81.5bn dragged by lower copper sales volumes(aluminium+1%vs.estimateandcopper7%) 9 Operating profit stood at Rs 6.7bn (+62% vs. estimate) largely driven by higher value...

Hindalco's standalone 3QFY16 EBITDA at Rs6.7bn fell 27% yoy, but increased 11% qoq, and was ahead of our estimate of Rs4.3bn. The aluminium segment reported a 17% yoy and 2% qoq increase in revenue on higher sales volume. Aluminium EBIT margins at 1.9% fell 866bps yoy but increased 120bps qoq. We were expecting this segment to report an EBIT loss as aluminium all-in prices have slid significantly in recent times. It must be noted that EBIT was positive due to lower input costs and higher volumes. Copper segment reported margin expansion of 154bps qoq and 90bps yoy at 8.9% during the quarter on firm Tc/Rc and higher...

For 2QFY2016, Hindalco Industries (Hindalco) standalone revenues came in 3% ahead of our expectations, but the EBITDA disappointed, coming in 16% below our estimate. Net sales increased 4.3% yoy to Rs8,841cr, vs our expectation of a 2.5% yoy decline, led by strong increase in aluminium volumes and higher credits from by-products in the copper division. The strong growth in volumes was diluted substantially by the sharp slide in commodity prices. Aluminum segment revenue increased 26% yoy whereas copper segment revenue declined 10% yoy. Copper volume growth also partially offset the decline in realizations. Sharp jump in employee and other expenses resulted in the EBITDA margin coming in 180bp below our expectations at 6.8%. The EBITDA however increased 29% yoy to Rs603cr, led by lower than expected material costs. Depreciation and finance costs jumped sharply yoy and came in marginally ahead of our expectation. However, a sharp jump in other income on account of dividend received from subsidiaries and a one-off of Rs119cr, led the net profit to increase by 31% yoy to Rs103cr, well ahead of our expectation of Rs57cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect aluminium prices to remain under pressure led by the huge oversupply situation and the Chinese...

9 Revenues were 9.4% above estimates at Rs 89.2bn driven by higher sales volumes (Aluminium+3.6%vsest.&Copper+6.2%) 9 Operating profit stood at Rs 6bn (+26% vs est.) largely driven by higher volumes and...

Aluminium and Alumina volumes continue to grow amidst ramp up of the new greenfield facilities. Aluminium metal production volumes increased 44% yoy and 2% qoq to 269,000 tonnes (our estimate 270,000 tonnes) due to ramp-up at Mahan and Aditya Smelters. Aluminium segmental revenue increased 26% yoy and 5% qoq to Rs41.7bn. Alumina production including production at Utkal increased 18% yoy and 6% qoq to 328,000tonnes on the back of ramp-up of the Utkal refinery. On the copper front, copper cathode volumes increased 4% yoy, but declined 2% qoq to...