Heidelberg Cement India Ltd. share price target

We change our recommendation from HOLD to SELL

We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock and revise our estimates based on lower cement prices and volume growth for FY25

We expect volume growth of 6%-7% in FY25. The housing and infrastructure sectors, major consumers of cement, are anticipated to continue driving demand. Moreover, the capacity expansion coupled with a fragmented market may lead to increased competition and potentially put pressure on cement prices.

We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock and roll over our estimate to FY26 as recent appreciation in the stock price leaves us with no upside.

We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock

We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock

We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock and roll over our estimates to FY25.

HeidelbergCement India’s (HEIM) Q3FY23 EBITDA of Rs371mn (down 46% YoY) was significantly below our / consensus estimates owing to lower-than-expected volumes and realisations. Volumes declined 3% YoY (up ~10% QoQ) as the company witnessed volume loss of 10 days during the quarter due to warehousing issues and intense competitive pressures.

Recommendation: We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock.

The stock is currently trading at 12x FY23E and 7.5x FY24E EV/EBITDA.We value the company at 8x FY24 EV/EBITDAto arrive at TP of Rs195/share, implying downside of 0% from the current level. Hence we change our rating from BUY to HOLD.

HeidelbergCement India’s (HEIM) Q2FY23 EBITDA of Rs476mn (down 59% YoY) was below our / consensus estimates owing to lower-than-expected volumes.

We value the company at 8x FY24 EV/EBITDA to arrive at a TP of Rs 210/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP. Hence, we change our rating from HOLD to BUY on the stock.

We value the company at 8x FY24 EV/EBITDA to arrive at TP of Rs 190/share, implying an upside of 6% from the current level. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

We value the company at 8x FY24 EV/EBITDA and roll over our estimates to FY24 to arrive at TP of Rs 205/share, implying an upside of 9% from the current level. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

to capacity constraints and focus on nearby markets. Strong prices in the region has attracted meaningful surge in volumes from other regions. Increased supplies due to inflow from other regions and upcoming new capacities would keep margins under check. We cut our EBITDA estimates for FY23e/FY24e by 10.6%/10.4% on account of lower margins. Given the tepid outlook on earnings growth due to capacity constraints and contraction in...