Havells India Ltd. share price target

Havells India’s (HAVL) FY25 annual report emphasizes its strategic focus on innovation, capacity expansion, market penetration, and digital transformation. The expansion of omni-channel distribution, particularly in rural markets and modern trade, has further strengthened the brand reach.

Going ahead, demand from the real estate and construction sectors will drive volumes of cables & wires. Further, The recent changes in income tax slab rates are anticipated to boost discretionary spending. While restocking and seasonal factors will drive overall growth going ahead....

Havells’ robust Q4 results were led by strong, 21% y/y, growth in cables and Lloyd’s 39% y/y revenue increase. We expect cost-saving steps and operating leverage to expand margins and profitability for Lloyd. The ramp-up of the new cable capacity will further add to growth.

Lloyd reported growth of 39.5% YoY, aided strong volume gr. in RAC segment. We downward revise Havells India's (HAVL) FY26/FY27E earnings by 2.0%/2.6% to factor in the soft margins commentary related Cable & Lloyd businesses and downgrade our recommendation to HOLD' from BUY', in view of the significant run-up in stock price in the near past. Havells reported strong results, primarily driven by robust growth in the Cables and Lloyd segments, though future momentum appears cautious. RAC segment expected limited growth due to delayed summer, high primary sales in Q4FY25, and slowdown...

Q4 Revenue grew 20% YoY/34% QoQ, driven by strong performances in Lloyd (+39% YoY) and C&W (+21% YoY)

Havells reported stronger-than-expected Q4FY25, partially led by higher trade inventory up-stocking in air conditioners. There is strong revenue growth of 39% in Lloyd. While there is healthy growth in primary sales, the company believes there is a possibility for slowdown in secondary sales in Q1FY26.

Havells India (HAVL)’s 4QFY25 revenue grew 20% YoY to INR65.4b (5% beat), led by better-than-expected growth in the Lloyd/C&W segments. Higher margins in the Lloyd and ECD segments have resulted in ~19% YoY EBITDA growth to INR7.6b (+17% vs. our est.).

We met with Havells’ (HAVL) management to gain insights into industry trends and the outlook for key business segments. The management remains optimistic about growth prospects across core categories, supported by margin improvement initiatives.

Havells’ EBITDA margin has declined from 12.6% in FY10 to 9.9% in FY24 and we model it to be 9.3% in FY25E. There are structural as well as cyclical/transitory reasons for the margin contractions.

High valuation unwarranted in competitive FMEG market

Fluctuating commodity prices dented domestic wire growth, resulting in overall moderated Q3 revenue growth for Havells. The festival season, though, saw improved demand. Investments in brand-building and talent were elevated in Q3, but are likely to stabilise; thus, better margins are
expected ahead with growth coming in.

Havells India (HAVL)’s 3QFY25 revenue grew 11% YoY to INR49b (in line) as better-than-expected growth in the ECD/Switchgear segments was offset by lower revenue from the C&W segment

Improved demand drove Havells’ revenue to grow 16% y/y, but margins dragged the Q2 performance. Supported by festival season offtake, we remain optimistic regarding H2 and expect margins to recover.

Havells India (HAVL) reported weak 2Q results with 3-5pp margin miss across segments as segmental margins contracted 2-6pp YoY (excluding Lloyd where loss narrowed YoY).

Havells reported strong performance in B2C segment with 20% revenue growth YoY. Broad-based growth across segments led to strong revenues but higher operational costs weighed on margins.

Q2 grew ~17% on improvement in consumer demand trends. High A&P spends and high staff cost hurt margins

Wires & cables accounted for 34% of HAVL's FY24 revenue, with capacity expansion to increase from 3.29mn km to 4.58mn km by 2026