Gujarat Gas Ltd. share price target

Gujarat Gas (GUJGA) reported 26/28% YoY decline in EBITDA/PAT to INR 3.8bn/INR 2.2bn (I-Sec est. of INR 4.1/INR 2.3bn) in Q3FY25.

Gujrat Gas (GUJGA)’s 2QFY25 EBITDA was ahead of our estimates as a strong EBITDA/scm margin offset the volume weakness. Management slightly raised its margin guidance to INR5-6/scm (from INR4.5-5.5).

Gujarat Gas has announced a scheme of amalgamation and arrangement, under which Gujarat State Petroleum Corp. (GSPC), Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS) and GSPC Energy (GEL) will merge with Gujarat Gas.

Gujarat Gas (GUJGA) has delivered strong Q4FY24 earnings, with 48% QoQ surge in EBITDA/67% QoQ rise in adj. PAT to INR 5.9bn/INR 3.7bn

Gujarat Gas (GUJGA) has delivered muted Q2FY24 earnings, with 23% YoY dip in EBITDA / 26% YoY dip in PAT to INR 5bn/INR 3bn, beating I-Sec’s estimates of EBITDA/PAT of INR 3.8/2.1bn, respectively. Earnings beat estimates despite a miss on volumes (9.3mmscmd vs estimates of 9.6mmscmd) with stronger margins offsetting the volumes miss.

Gujarat Gas (GUJGA) has hiked industrial gas prices at Morbi by INR 2.5/scm, the second hike in Q2, post a INR 2/scm hike taken in Aug’23. The decision has been driven by an improvement in propane prices in last 2-3 months. Prices have steadily improved since then, with Aug’23 prices at USD 470/t and Sep’23 prices declared at USD 550/t – coupled with an increase in import duties to ~18% from <6% earlier.

Gujarat Gas (GUJGA) has delivered a weak Q1FY24, with 36% YoY dip in EBITDA/ 44% dip in PAT to INR 3.9bn/INR 2.2bn, missing I-Sec estimates of EBITDA/PAT of INR 7/4.6bn, respectively. The miss was due to a 5% YoY dip in volumes and a sharp 32% dip in EBITDA/scm.

Gujarat Gas (GUJGA) faces a tough choice: prioritise volume growth or maintain margins over the next 12 months. The conversion of about 55% of available units in its major consumption hub of Morbi to dual fuel use poses a challenge.

Gujarat Gas (GUJGA) has reported 20% YoY dip in recurring EBITDA and 19% YoY dip in net earnings to Rs5.6bn/Rs3.7bn, respectively, with QoQ performance being largely flat. However, earnings were strongly above our estimates, with sharply improved costs in Q4FY23 driving a material beat vs our EBITDA/PAT estimates of Rs3bn/Rs1.7bn, respectively.

As per CNBC TV-18 (link), which we have confirmed with the Gujarat Gas (GGL) management, GGL has cut its Morbi industrial prices by a further Rs5/scm to keep prices competitive in the wake of the recent lowering of propane prices (estimated at ~Rs40/scm as of now). The revised industrial prices for Morbi are now at Rs39.5/scm (net of taxes) while non-Morbi prices remain at ~Rs47/scm.