The 19 reports from 8 analysts offering long term price targets
for Gujarat Gas Ltd. have an average target of 199.57. The consensus estimate
represents an upside of 13.46%
from the last price of 175.90.
To accommodate the stellar Q1FY20 performance, we raise EPS estimates for FY20/21E from Rs 8.8/11.1 to Rs 11.1/11.7. We expect (1) Low LNG prices to boost industrial volumes; (2) The development of CGD ecosystem across Gujarat to push CNG volumes. We remain positive on the company as it generates OCF yield of almost 9.5% and RoE of >25% over FY21/22E. Valuations are contextually unreasonable at 15.4/14.6x FY21/22E EPS. Post the outstanding Q1FY20 performance, we maintain BUY on GGL. Our target is Rs 246/sh (20x Jun-21E EPS).
The quarter witnessed a robust increase of 42.2% YoY in volumes to 9.2 mmscmd. Industrial volumes were at 7.1 mmscmd vs. 5.1 mmscmd YoY and 4.3 mmscmd QoQ due to volume impact from the Morbi industrial area. Morbi industrial volumes were at ~5 mmscmd for the quarter (2-2.5 mmscmd volumes last year) i.e. 70% of industrial volumes. CNG volumes at 1.5 mmscmd showed stable growth while domestic/commercial PNG volumes were at ~0.6 mmscmd. The volume outlook remains robust as National Green Tribunal (NGT) has ordered a ban on coal based gasifiers,...
Gujarat Gas volumes were higher than expected at 833 mmscm as against our estimates of 792 mmscm. Strong revenues at ` 26.1 bn was driven by 43%YoY gas volumes growth. Gross spreads were flat on a sequential basis and higher by 9% on a yearly basis. EBITDA spreads were highest in this quarter at ` 5.6/scm due to lower LNG spot prices. EBITDA spreads increased by 32% YoY and 29% QoQ. With recent strategy of management to focus on volumes, we believe that operating spreads should sustain at ` 4.5/SCM. Overall volumes increased by 43% YoY and 41% QoQ, with...
GUJGA reported strong EBIDTA of INR4.7b (+50% beat; +88% YoY, +84% QoQ), driven by lower sourcing cost. PAT was up 93% YoY at INR2.3b. Total sales volumes were 4% higher than our estimate at 9.2mmscmd (+42% YoY/QoQ), primarily led by higher industrial volumes. EBITDA/scm for the quarter stood at INR5.6 (v/s INR4.2 in 1QFY19 and INR4.3 in 4QFY19). This is the highest-ever EBITDA/scm reported by the company, aided by lower spot LNG prices (average USD5.4/mmbtu in 1QFY20 v/s USD8.9 in 1QFY19 and USD7.4 in 4QFY19)....
Gujarat Gas (GUJGA) reported Q1FY20 earnings well above estimates at Rs 2.3bn (+93% YoY, +2x QoQ), backed by strong volumes of 9.15mmscmd (+42% YoY) and expanded EBITDA margins of Rs 5.6/scm (+32% YoY, +29% QoQ).
NGT order to boost industrial sales volumes The quarter saw a decline in volume growth of 3.8% YoY to 6.5 mmscmd. Industrial volumes were at 4.3 mmscmd vs. 4.7 mmscmd YoY due to volume impact from the Morbi industrial area. CNG volumes at 1.5 mmscmd showed stable growth while domestic/commercial PNG volumes came in at ~0.8 mmscmd. However, the volume outlook remains robust as National Green Tribunal (NGT) has ordered a ban on coal based gasifiers, which would increase sales volumes from the Morbi ceramic industry. Following the NGT...
Gujarat Gas volume of 585 MMSCM was below our estimate of 650 MMSCM. The ` 19.1 bn in revenue was below our estimate, due to a volume miss. The gross spreads fell 6% QoQ and grew 23% YoY. In the past, the company's spread grew to a high level, and reverted to lower levels in the following quarter, and that happened this quarter, as well. We will...
6 May 2019 EBIDTA increased 14% YoY (-21% QoQ) to INR2.5b (in-line) in 4QFY19. PAT due to a lower tax rate of 22.7% owing to write-back of excess tax provision and accrued income tax refund during the year. Total sales volumes declined 5% YoY (-2% QoQ) to 6.4mmscmd (in-line). industrial/commercial (PNG I/C) volumes stood at 4.3mmscmd (-7% YoY, -5% QoQ), while PNG household volumes were at 0.6mmscmd (-13% YoY, +15% QoQ). We have modeled PNG sales volumes of 6.6/7.3mmscmd for FY20/21, in line with the expected demand boost at Morbi. volumes stood at 1.5mmscmd (+8% YoY, +3% QoQ). We have modeled CNG volumes at 1.
In early 2019, sales volumes were down to ~2.1-2.2mmscmd, but the closure of coal gasifiers has boosted current sales volumes to ~3mmscmd at Morbi. Although ceramic manufacturers have shifted, they have not come forward to sign term contracts
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report NGT order on closure of coal gasifiers likely to accelerate switch to PNG Click here to: Polling for Institutional Investor's 2019 Asia Research Team The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has ordered an immediate closure of coal gasifiers at Morbi ceramic cluster or switch to natural gas to continue operations, according to media reports. This comes in response to a petition filed for causing environmental damage, which was affirmed by the NEERI (plant modifications and zero discharge recommendations not...
7 March 2019 Oil & Gas The Delhi bench of the National Green Tribunal (NGT) has ordered the closure/dismantling of all coal gasifiers at Morbi in Gujarat, which is a major sales area for Gujarat Gas (GUJGA). But, according to our estimates, currently there are ~400-450 units running on coal gasifiers. Nonetheless, a blanket ban on all coal gasifiers would result in ~80-100 units going out of business completely as they would not be profitable. Peak potential is estimated at 5-6mmscmd out of which current sales stands at ~2.5mmscmd. In Jul12, the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) had announced a similar blanket ban on coal gasifiers, ordering the Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) to stop and dismantle all units. Back then, ceramic manufacturers had shifted to natural gas by Apr14. We have not changed our estimates as of now, but we note that an effective blanket ban could result in an immediate increase of 2.5mmscmd in volume (~38% of FY19E).
Gujarat Gas Limited, formerly GSPC Distribution Networks Limited, is engaged in the natural gas business in Gujarat. The Company is engaged in City Gas Distribution, including sale, purchase, supply, distribution, transport, trading in natural gas, compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and other gaseous form through pipelines, trucks/trains or such other suitable mode for transportation/distribution of natural gas, CNG, LNG, LPG and other gaseous form. The Company supplies Piped Natural Gas (PNG) for Domestic Usage to over 1,080,000 households in total in the state of Gujarat. The Company operates the HAPi pipeline, which is a 73.2 kilometers long and 18-inch diameter natural gas pipeline. The...
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gujarat Gas reported a good set of numbers on the profitability front in Q3FY19. Revenues increased 34.8% YoY to | 2117.4 crore. Total reported volumes increased 4.1% YoY and came in at 6.6 mmscmd vs. our estimate of 6.9 mmscmd. Volumes were below our estimates on account of lower sales volumes QoQ on the industrial PNG front Realisation were higher than our estimates at | 35.1/scm (our estimate: | 34.4/scm). Also, a lower-than-expected increase in gas...
8 February 2019 GUJGA reported significantly higher EBIDTA of INR3.2b (v/s INR2b a year ago, more than double QoQ) as against our estimate of INR1.8b. PAT came in at INR1.4b (v/s our estimate of INR576m; doubled YoY), primarily due to lower raw material cost. EBITDA/scm increased to INR5.3 (v/s our estimate of INR2.9, INR2.6 in 2QFY19), however, the street has reservations about sustainability of EBIDTA/scm above INR5. We model EBITDA/scm of INR3.9/4.0 for FY20/21. PNG industrial/commercial volumes stood at 4.6mmscmd (+2% YoY, -3% QoQ), while PNG household volumes were at 0.5mmscmd (+4% YoY, +2% QoQ).
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Gujarat Gas made an announcement to split shares with its Q2FY19 results on November 3, 2018. The Board approved the sub-division of equity shares of face value of | 10 each into five equity shares of face value | 2 each fully paid. The record date for the same is January 16, 2019 while the ex-date for the same is today i.e. January 15, 2019. Consequently, Gujarat Gas' share price, as per yesterday's closing price, has dropped to | 133.6/ share from | 668/share. Currently, the stock is...
Gujarat Gas reported a disappointing set of numbers in Q2FY19. Revenues increased 41.2% YoY to | 1964.3 crore and came in above our estimates. Total reported volumes increased 16.5% YoY and came in at 6.7 mmscmd vs. our estimate of 6.5 mmscmd on account of higher sales volumes on the industrial PNG front Realisations were higher than our estimate at | 32/scm (our estimate: | 31.6/scm). However, sharp increase in gas costs due to increase in LNG prices and rupee depreciation led to decline in gross margins,...
Gujarat Gas volumes number were below our estimates. Growth in the commercial segment has been encouraging but has come at a cost of margin decline. Gujarat Gas was impacted by the sharp increase in the input cost mainly RLNG. Gas cost increased by 35.8% on a YoY basis. With prices on the higher side and ongoing festive season, Gujarat gas could not pass on completely the impact of increased input cost. Industrial segment (nearly 70% of volumes) is very price sensitive and creates lot of volatility on spreads. We believe that volume and spread balance will be the key for...
4 November 2018 GUJGA reported significantly lower EBITDA of INR1.6b (-21% YoY, -35% QoQ) compared to our estimate of INR2.4b, primarily due to its inability to pass on increased raw material cost to the consumers. PAT came in at INR411m (our EBITDA/scm declined sharply by 32% YoY (- 38% QoQ) to INR2.6, much below our estimate of INR4.0 due to lower pricing in the industrial segment. We model EBITDA/scm of INR3.3/4.1 for FY19/20. PNG industrial/commercial volumes stood at 4.7mmscmd (+18% YoY, +3% QoQ), while PNG household volumes were at 0.5mmscmd (+17% YoY, +28% QoQ). We have modeled PNG volumes of 4.8/5.3mmscmd for FY19/20.
Gujarat Gas reported a decent set of Q1FY19 numbers. Revenues increased 19.4% YoY to | 1765.1 crore, in line with our estimates. Although volumes at 6.4 mmscmd were slightly lower than our estimates of 6.6 mmscmd, realisations were above our estimates Realisations were higher than our estimates at | 30.1/scm (our estimate: | 29.5/scm). Gross margins were at | 7.1/scm (our...
