Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. share price target

The company recognised gain of | 50.3 crore post transfer of CGD business to its subsidiary, Gujarat Gas. PAT was at | 248.1 crore, flat YoY What should investors do? In the long run, the transmission business is expected to report stable volumes on the back of growth in CGD sector, increasing domestic production and increased LNG capacity in Gujarat. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock Target Price and Valuation: We value GSPL's transmission business at ~| 185/share. At the CMP, GSPL's investments in its listed CGD entity Gujarat Gas...

GUJS reported a marginally higher (+5%) transmission volume than our estimate at 36.8mmscmd (+11% YoY and +9% QoQ), with implied tariff at INR1,282/mscm. Demand recovery from the refining/petchem segment...

The management reiterated their volume guidance and expects over 10% volume CAGR over the next 3-5 years. Gas volumes moved away from spot LNG as prices saw an abrupt spike in Jan-Feb'21, however:...

GSPL reported natural gas transmission volume growth of 6.6% YoY and down 1% QoQ to 39.4 mmscmd. City gas distribution sector was the largest contributor to volume growth YoY. On a QoQ basis, volume offtake mix for CGD sector increased to 32% vs. 27%. Refinery/petchem sector's offtake declined to 18% from 25% while power sector's offtake was steady at 23%. We build in lower volumes in the current quarter as the sharp surge in spot LNG prices in January is likely to affect transmission volumes mainly in industrial/commercial segment. We revise our FY21E volume estimate to...

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS)'s 3Q volumes were driven by higher demand from the CGD segment and revival in demand from the Fertilizer segment, further supported by strong gas consumption in the Power sector. Gas volumes for the Refining/Petchem segment declined due to decreased offtake by RIL. On account of the huge demand-supply mismatch across the globe (due to production challenges, along with higher winter demand), spot LNG prices jumped in 4QFY21'TD. As per our channel checks, this has resulted in lower gas offtake to ~45mmscmd (from ~10mmscmd in 3QFY21) by the Power sector, in addition to...

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) Q3FY21 result was in-line with our estimates. Gas transmission volume grew 6.6% YoY/-1% QoQ led by CGD and Power segment while offtake from refining remained low owing to lower utilisation. Average realizations came at Rs 1.58/scm, +1.8% QoQ and was in-line with our estimates. EBITDA/scm was up 6% higher QoQ led by lower other expenses. We largely keep our estimates unchanged. Higher domestic volume, strong recovery from industrial PNG demand would accrue more value to GSPL. At current valuation of Gujarat Gas, GSPL's 54.17%...

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS) reported volumes of ~40mmscmd in 2QFY21, taking the company to near full capacity levels of ~42mmscmd. We discussed volume growth avenues both immediate and for the future with the management. The following are key insights from the same: GUJS has installed an additional compressor, which facilitated pipeline capacity expansion by ~10%, thus taking total pipeline capacity to ~46mmscmd. While GUJGA stated during its recent earnings that volumes are higher than its 2QFY21 average, the benefits have also accrued to GUJS, which is currently...

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) Q2FY21 result was in-line with our estimates where it recorded highest-ever gas transmission volume. Revenue declined by 9.2% YoY to Rs 5.8bn due to lower realization at Rs 1.6/scm, down 10% YoY. Though gas transmission volume crossed pre-Covid level and registered a growth of 1.5% YoY to 39.8mmscmd (+20% QoQ). EBITDA/scm declined to Rs1.04/scm in Q2FY21 from Rs1.21/scm in Q2FY20 due to lower tariff and higher other expenses. Implied tariff fell by 7.2% YoY to Rs 1.24/scm. We are largely keeping estimates unchanged while introduce FY23E financials and expect its volume/revenue/EBITDA to see a CAGR of 9%/10%/13% over...