Greenply Industries Ltd. share price target

We initiate coverage of Greenply Industries Ltd (GREENPLY) with a BUY recommendation and TP of 385/share, implying an upside potential of 26% from the CMP.

Greenply Industries’ Q4 revenue/gross profit/EBITDA grew 8.2%/16.5%/18.1% y/y to Rs6.5bn/2.7bn/681m. Easing input cost helped the gross margin to inch up 297bps y/y to 41.5%.

Beats EBITDA estimate on unexpected sharp improvement in MDF gross margin, despite weak realisations and higher timber prices

Greenply’s Q3 revenue/gross profit/EBITDA grew 5.6/5.8/7.2% y/y to Rs6.2bn/2.5bn/540m. Adj. PAT was up 26.5% y/y to Rs244m. Despite higher revenue, input cost pressures restricted the gross margin to 40.1%.

Broadly in-line operating performance; sharp beat in APAT by 53% in Q3 due to lower interest expense on account of forex gain

Greenply’s revenue/gross profit/EBITDA grew 12.8/12.3/19.2% y/y to Rs6.4bn/2.5bn/576m, though adj. PAT was 6.1% lower y/y at Rs176m.

Topline broadly in line; but sharp miss on EBITDA due to steep sequential contraction in MDF margin (-487bps QoQ to 11.8%)

JKCE: Focused on growth; earnings intact; upgrade to BUY. RBI Dividend: Record high. SRCM: Cost savings key driver of performance; valuations pricey. BANDHAN: In line with recovery plan. ERIS: Strong revenue growth; integration ongoing. MTLM: Misses estimate on weak plywood margin; upbeat outlook.

GCPL: Consistent volume growth; cut to HOLD post rally. JSP: Valuations overdone; downgrade to HOLD. ACC: Strong margins; cut to HOLD on full valuations. Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review. Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review. VGRD: In-line quarter. ORIENTEL: Slow quarter; Hyderabad plant to spur growth. SOMC: Lacklustre demand dulls performance. MTLM: Strong performance on fast ramp-up of MDF plant. SRCM: Healthy quarter, expensive valuations

Greenply Industries (MTLM) reported consolidated revenue growth of 5.0% YoY in Q1FY24, with India plywood business growing 4.4% YoY while plywood volume grew 1.6% YoY (4-year CAGR of 4.7%) and realisation was up 2.9% YoY. Consolidated EBITDA margin contracted 258bps YoY to 6.3% due to EBITDA loss of INR 73mn in MDF segment (which commenced operations in May’23), while India plywood EBITDA margin was flat YoY (due to higher A&P spend despite gross margin expansion of 320bps YoY).

Greenply Industries (MTLM) reported consolidated revenue growth of 4.6% YoY (4-year CAGR 4.6%) in Q4FY23, with India plywood business (including Sandila subsidiary) growing at 3.1% YoY while plywood volumes were flat YoY (4-year CAGR of 2.2%).