Greenply Industries Ltd. share price target

Greenply's Q4FY26 performance exceeded our expectations. Revenue grew 20% YoY to Rs7.8bn, driven by robust volume growth across segments, supported by market share gain from unorganized players. EBITDA rose 37% YoY to Rs932mn, with EBITDA margin expanding 152bps YoY to 12%, aided by operating leverage and calibrated price hikes that offset elevated input costs. Adj. PAT (excluding GMEL impairment of Rs 152Mn) surged by 178% YoY to Rs462mn. Net debt decreased by Rs670mn QoQ to Rs4.6bn. Management has outlined a capex plan of Rs4.8bn (MDF Facility: Rs3bn, Plywood Capacity: Rs1.3bn and technological...

Topline beat by ~16%, with EBITDA/APAT ahead by ~81%/~230% on strong volume-led growth and operating leverage

We continue to value the stock at a 22x FY28E to arrive at a TP of Rs 340/share and maintain our BUY rating on the stock, implying an upside of 29% from CMP.

It has MDF boards manufacturing at Vadodara, Gujarat of 1000 CBM/day. It is adding capacity in plywood segment and MDF segment which will take total capacity to 66.3 Mn Sqm/annum and 1700 CBM/day, respectively. Q4FY26 Performance: The consolidated topline for Q4FY25 stood at 776.2 crore, up 19.6% YoY. MDF revenues stood at 189.2 crore, up 39.6% YoY with sales volumes of 62,021 CBM up 45.3% YoY, and realization of 30,508 per CBM, down 3.9% YoY. The plywood volumes were up 15.6% YoY to 22.8 MSM with revenues at 588.5 crore, up 14.6% YoY. On the profitability front, consolidated EBITDA grew...

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a TP of Rs 248/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP.

Greenply's Q3FY26 profitability was below our expectations. Revenue grew 10% YoY to Rs6.7bn, driven by robust growth in MDF segment. EBITDA increased by 9% YoY to Rs589mn, with EBITDA margin remaining flat YoY at 8.7%, impacted by production glitches at MDF plant. PAT declined by 25% YoY to Rs182mn. Net debt increased by Rs170mn QoQ to Rs5.2bn, and is expected to further rise to Rs6-6.5Bn by Mar'27. Greenply plans to add a new MDF line by Q2FY28, which will increase capacity by 700 CBM/day with a capex outlay of Rs4.25bn and a peak revenue potential of Rs6bn. We roll over to FY28E estimates and value the...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

It has MDF boards manufacturing at Vadodara, Gujarat of 1000 CBM/day. It is adding capacity in plywood segment and MDF segment which will take total capacity to 66.3 Mn Sqm/annum and 1700 CBM/day, respectively. Q3FY26 Performance: Greenply Industries reported a 9.6% YoY growth in consolidated revenue at 673.4 crore. The MDF segment revenues at 151.9 crore, was up 12.9% YoY, with volumes of 48,383 CBM, a growth of 14.5% YoY, and realizations down 1.5% YoY. The plywood revenue at 521.7 crore, was up 9% YoY, with volumes up 12.6% YoY at 20.5 MSM. Consolidated EBITDA at 58.9 crore, was...

Topline beat by ~6%, while EBITDA and APAT miss by ~8% and ~26% in Q3FY26

It has MDF boards business with manufacturing at Vadodara, Gujarat of 1000 CBM/day. It is adding capacity in plywood segment at plant in Odisha which will take total capacity to 66.3 Mn SQM/annum. Q2FY26 Performance: Revenues grew 7.5% YoY to 688.6 crore in Q2FY26. The MDF segment revenue at 146.8 crore, was up 15.9% YoY, with volumes of 47,018 CBM (+15.9% YoY) with flat realisation. The plywood segment reported revenue of 541.7 crore, up 5.4% YoY, while volumes up 7.2% YoY to 21.7 MSM. EBITDA stood at 57 crore, with EBITDA margins of 8.2% (down ~75 bps YoY), impacted by lower...

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Greenply's Q2FY26 profitability was below expectations. Revenue grew 8% YoY to Rs6.9bn, driven by robust growth in MDF segment. EBITDA decreased by 2% YoY to Rs568mn, with EBITDA margin contracting by 75bps YoY to 8.2%, dragged down by planned shutdown for MDF expansion, a higher contribution of midpremium plywood and liquidation of slow moving MDF inventory at high discounts. PAT declined by 9% YoY to Rs160mn. Net debt decreased by Rs280mn to Rs5.1bn, driven by liquidation of excess inventories, and is expected to reduce further in H2. The management attributed margin contraction to one off event and expects a strong rebound in volumes and margins in H2FY26. We cut...

Posted weak Q2FY26 result on inferior plywood mix and sharp MDF margin compression (which is one-off due to maintenance shutdown)

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Greenply's Q1FY26 Revenue grew 3% YoY to Rs6bn, driven by healthy growth in MDF segment. EBITDA increased by 6% YoY to Rs616mn, with EBITDA margin expanding by 34bps YoY to 10.3%, driven by improved margins in the MDF segment. Adj. PAT declined by 28% YoY to Rs204mn, (excluding Rs 44.3mn received on liquidation of 30% stake in GMEL-Dubai). Net debt increased by Rs74mn to Rs5.4bn, due to inventory build-up in preparation for MDF plant capacity extension in the month of Aug'25. Also, Greenply plans to set up PVC & WPC windows facility with a capex of Rs 550mn, which can achieve revenue of...

Market conditions remain challenging in Q1FY26, as indicated from the weak plywood sales volume and steep rise in working capital cycle

Greenply’s Q1 revenue grew 2.9%y/y to Rs6bn. Easing input costs pushed the gross margin up 205bps y/y to 42.8%. Higher employee and other expenses restricted the EBITDA margin improvement to 34bps y/y, to 10.3%. Adj. PAT fell 27.6% y/y to Rs240m.

We initiate coverage of Greenply Industries Ltd (GREENPLY) with a BUY recommendation and TP of 385/share, implying an upside potential of 26% from the CMP.

Beats EBITDA estimate on unexpected sharp improvement in MDF gross margin, despite weak realisations and higher timber prices