Gravita India Ltd. share price target

Gravita India’s (GRAV) performance was in-line with consensus estimates. The company reported EBITDA at INR 1bn (+15%/+9% YoY/QoQ) driven by, total volumes rising 12.4% YoY to 53.4Kte (flat YoY), better margins at the lead segment (INR 21,790/te; up 13%/7% YoY/QoQ), as GRAV used higher imported material that fetched better pricing.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Gravita India (GRAVITA) recorded a healthy 15% YoY revenue growth, underpinned by a 12% YoY rise in overall volumes, mainly due to a 10% YoY volume growth in Lead.

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,045/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP

Gravita's strategic diversification across recycling verticals, combined with favorable regulatory developments and a proven execution track record, positions it as a prime beneficiary of India's formalizing and sustainable waste management transition.

Gravita India Ltd (Gravita), a prominent leader in India's recycling industry, is wellplaced to leverage strong industry growth and rising momentum through its global and pan-India operations, supported by a comprehensive procurement network.

Gravita India’s (GRAV) performance was in line with our estimates. EBITDA (including hedging gains) was up 22% YoY at INR 1.06bn. EBITDA margin (adj.) was up 20bps YoY (30bps QoQ) at 10.3%. Lead sales volume rose 12.3% YoY at 45.6kt.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

In 4QFY25, Gravita India (GRAVITA) recorded a strong 20% YoY revenue growth, underpinned by a 13% YoY rise in overall volumes. The aluminum business led the performance with a sharp 73% YoY growth, followed by a 19% increase in lead revenues, whereas the plastic segment witnessed a 16% YoY decline.

GRAV reported a stable quarterly performance, with Q4FY25 EBITDA of Rs1,085mn (+6.1% QoQ; +16.8% YoY). Operating revenue increased 3.5% sequentially to Rs10.5bn, with Lead sales being the key driver of the sequential delta, in line with our estimate of Rs10.2bn.

Company Update

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Gravita India (GRAVITA) reported strong revenue growth of ~31% YoY in 3QFY25, aided by total volume growth of 33% YoY. The growth was broadbased across segments, with aluminum reporting the highest growth (2.4x YoY), following by plastics (44%) and lead (up 23% YoY). However, adj. EBITDA/kg declined 14% to INR19.1, due to higher sourcing of domestic scrap (44%) in 3Q.

Gravita India’s (GRAV) Q2FY25 performance was in line with our estimates. Key points: 1) Production volume rose 7.7% YoY aided by Lead (Pb), growing at 8.7% YoY. 2) Profitability was aided by LME-MCX arbitrage.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

We are initiating coverage on Gravita India Ltd. with a BUY recommendation and a target price of Rs 3,000/share, implying an upside of 20% from the CMP.

Gravita India Ltd (Gravita), one of the largest recycling companies in India, is wellpositioned to benefit from strong industry tailwinds and healthy traction within the sector.

Despite surging 2x in the last three months, we see further steam in Gravita India (GRAV) stock. Regulatory tailwinds aiding availability of scrap in domestic market.

We re-iterate BUY on GRAV while upheaving our TP to Rs2,700/share. GRAV targets revenue CAGR of 25% over the next 3-4 years, and generating ROCE of >25%. Company’s business ‘moat’ is scrap procurement.

The GST Council has introduced the reverse charge mechanism (RCM) on supply of metal scrap by a unregistered person to a registered person. About 65% of the lead recycling market is unorganized, which gets meaningful cost advantage.