Granules India Ltd. share price target

Revenues grew 20% YoY to | 845 crore driven by new launches and higher market share of existing products across segments. Formulations grew 11% YoY to | 422 crore, API grew 20% to | 252 crore and PFI grew 48% to | 171 crore. EBITDA margins improved 187 bps YoY to 25.1% due to change in product mix and higher operational efficiency. EBITDA grew 29.7% YoY to | 212 crore. Adjusted PAT grew 52.8% YoY to | 147 crore. Delta vis-a-vis EBITDA was due to higher other income (one-time | 13.4 crore stimulus...

With the generic version of Focalin XR being approved, GRAN now has 30 ANDA approvals (28 final and 2 tentative). It is used for the treatment of Focalin XR and its generic equivalent had US sales of USD556m for 12- There are 5 companies having final approval for this product, other than GRAN. Accordingly, we expect price erosion of 7-10% with market share gradually building up to 10% over 12 months post the launch of the product. This could provide meaningful upside to GRANs ANDA-led Formulations GRAN has multiple growth levers, such as (a) the ANDA pipeline for US generics (with some products having limited competition opportunity), which should drive an increase in the share of formulations for developed markets, (b) enhanced reach for core molecules, and (c) reduced opex through backward integration.

Granules achieved its highest ever quarterly revenue of Rs.736cr during Q1FY21 with a YoY growth of 24%. The Finished Dosages segment grew by 35% during the quarter as the company successfully launched Colchicine tablets and Butalbital APAP caffeine tablets in the U.S The company reduced its Promoter pledge percentage from 37.6% to 8.7% through the recent buyback process. We expect net profit to grow at a CAGR of 22% over FY20-FY22E on...

Granules (GIL) posted revenues of INR 7,356mn with 23.6% YoY growth, which was ~6% above our estimate of INR 6929mn. Revenue growth was mainly driven by new product launches and an increase in market share of existing products. Gross margin improved (918bps YoY) due to higher formulation sales (52% of revenue vs 48% in Q1FY20). Subsequently, EBITDA margin expanded by 503bps to 25% level was 475bps higher than our estimate. EBITDA was partially impacted by one-off INR 280mn related to metformin recall (INR150mn) and COVID-19 related expenses (INR130mn). As per management EBITDA margin can be sustainable (~23% for FY21) as continued traction in the formulation business. GIL reported PAT of INR 1114mn, was above our estimate of INR 744mn driven by strong operational performance and lower tax rate (25.3% vs 32% in Q1FY20). Management expects to achieve 30% PAT growth in FY21 compared previous year and 25% for FY22 given the strong traction in base business along with new product launches in the US generics business. Post...