L&T Technology Services Ltd. share price target

LTTS reported revenue de-growth of -12.5% QoQ USD 3% above our estimates (Ple:10% QoQ, Cons: 12%). Weak revenue growth was on account of steep decline of 22.8% QoQ in transportation vertical & 24.5% decline in...

LTTS reported revenue de-growth of -2.0% QoQ USD 3% below our estimates (Ple:1% QoQ, Cons: 1.2%). Weak revenue growth was on account of steep decline of 8.8% QoQ in plant & engineering. Vertical was impacted by project closures in O&G; segment & we believe this vertical will take longer to revive. Reported EBIT margin at 15.2% was down 160 bps QoQ (Ple/Cons: 17.2%), while adjusted for one-off (contribution to PM CARES fund) was 16.5% (-30 bps QoQ). Margin was impacted by lower revenue but aided by strong currency tailwinds. We expect FY21 margin to be impacted by lower revenue....

L&T; Technology Services' (LTTS) Q4FY20 earnings were mixed beating our revenue estimates but EBITDA and PAT came below our estimates. Consolidated revenue for Q4FY20 stood at Rs 14,466mn registering +7.7% YoY/+1.7% QoQ, EBITDA increased 7.7% YoY/declined 6.3% QoQ to Rs 2,683mn and PAT increased 7.2% YoY/0.2% QoQ to Rs 2,063mn. Constant currency Revenue (USD) stood at $194 million, up by 1.6% YoY/down 2.5% QoQ, due to COVID-19 outbreak as the company faced supply side constraints and demand side challenges resulting in loss of productivity and work from home for employees. EBIT stood at Rs...

We maintain our conviction on LTTS based on (1) Preferred pick in ER&D on diversified vertical mix (low concentration risk) and niche position in Process Industry and Industrial products, (2) At an inflexion point with stability/recovery expected in Telecom & Hi-tech vertical, (3) Strong account mining engine with T30 program (>USD 10mn client bucket had 3 additions QoQ). Expect USD rev/EPS CAGR at 12.5/15.2% over FY19-22E factoring USD rev growth at 10.1/12.2/15.1% and EBIT% at 17.1/17.0/17.5% for FY20/21/22E, respectively. Key risk continues to be macros, trade war escalation (Industrial products vertical). We maintain our BUY on L&T; Tech (LTTS) based on in-line performance, growth bottoming-out in 3Q on strong wins/pipeline and expectation of stability/recovery in Telecom & Hi-tech vertical. Our TP of Rs 1,790 implies 18x Dec-21E EPS (marginal EPS est change).

LTTS continues to outperform ER&D peers, even as near term growth has slowed. We believe this has more to do with macros, and reckon that LTTS is reasonably resilient with its relatively stronger technical capabilities, diversified vertical mix and niche position in Process Industry and Industrial products. We build USD rev/EPS to post 11.5/14.5% CAGR over FY19-22E. That macros can play a bigger spoilsport than now is the only risk. We maintain BUY on LTTS despite the EPS downgrade (~5%) on weak near-term outlook (2Q nos were in-line). While relative outperformance continues, deceleration in growth trajectory limits our optimism. Our TP is Rs 1,705, based on 18x Sep-21E (20x earlier).

Transportation in US and Singapore, 1 deal in Industrial, 1 deal in Hi-tech and 3 deals in Medical). However, weakness in semiconductor space is likely to dent growth prospects. EBITDA margin at 18.5% (excl. IND AS impact) was ahead of estimates (Ple: 17.2%; consensus: 17.8%)....

Despite emerging challenges in Telecom & Hi-tech vertical, LTTS is the strongest play in ER&D based on (1) Business resilience supported by vertical diversification and low client concentration (vs. peers), (2) Broad-based deal wins & deal pipeline, (3) Growth outperformance in largest vertical (Transportation) vs. peers and (4) Shift in business-mix to support margins. Expect USD rev/EPS growth of 15/17% CAGR over FY19-22E. Key risks include adverse macros (trade war) and INR appreciation. We maintain BUY on LTTS following an in-line 1Q performance. We lower est. by ~3% to factor near-term weakness in Telecom/Hi-tech vertical, however broad-based wins/pipeline provide growth visibility (continues to be industry leading). Our TP is Rs 1,955, at 20x Jun-21E EPS.

LTTS is among our top picks in tier-2 IT based on (1) Leading pure-play ER&D with diversified verticals and least client concentration, (2) High growth visibility supported by broad-based deal pipeline, deal wins and beneficiary of vendor consolidation (Transportation, Process industry), (3) Investments to drive growth in large accounts (program managers, consultant engagements, co-innovation). Expect USD rev/EPS growth at 17% each. Valuations at 18.2x FY21E supported by strong FCF generation (94% FCF/PAT), strong return metrics (35% RoIC) and growth leadership within tier-2 IT/ER&D. Key risk is Brexit/trade war repercussions. We maintain BUY on LTTS after a strong 4Q performance. Industry-leading growth in FY19 and we expect growth leadership to continue. Our TP at Rs 1,860 is based on 20x FY21E EPS.

L&T; Technology Services (LTTS) was established through a group restructuring exercise by the L&T; Group, wherein, integrated engineering services of L&T; and product engineering services business of L&T; Infotech were transferred to LTTS. As a result, LTTS has emerged as one of the leading global pure-play ER&D; services, providing services to manufacturing, technology and process engineering companies, LTTS has active presence in 10 verticals: consumer electronics, semiconductor, aerospace, medical devices, telecom, energy, construction & heavy machinery, automotive, transport, industrial Products. LTTS captures data from IoT...