Mahanagar Gas Ltd. share price target

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Mahanagar Gas (MGL) reported its Q2FY19 results, which were above our estimates driven by higher volumes. The topline increased...

Our target is Rs 1,071/sh (19x Sep-20E standalone EPS). Maintain BUY. MGLs 2QFY19 revenue came in at Rs 6.97bn, up 30.5% YoY led by 9.5% YoY increase in volumes to 3mmscmd and 30% YoY increase in realisation for PNG to Rs 31.2/scm. Higher gas prices and depreciation of rupee resulted in increase in raw material and operating cost. EBITDA stood at Rs 2.21bn up 10.6% YoY and down 1.1% QoQ. Per unit EBITDA margin was up 7.8bps YoY and down 43.5bps QoQ to Rs 8.1/scm. APAT came in at Rs 1.36bn (+9.2% YoY, -0.46% QoQ).

13 November 2018 EBITDA rose 11% YoY (+5% QoQ) to INR2.2b, ahead of our estimate of INR2.1b, led by better-than-expected sales volume. Volume growth was INR340m; +19% YoY, +4% QoQ) and (b) higher other income of INR182m came in flat YoY at INR8.1/scm (in-line; adjusted at INR8.6 for 1QFY19). Overall volumes grew sharply by 9% YoY to 2.96mmscmd in 2QFY19, led by an increase of 9% YoY in CNG volumes and 10% YoY in PNG volumes. MGLs performance has been encouraging in terms of volume growth. Despite higher domestic gas price, INR depreciation and increased commission to OMCs, its EBITDA/scm is the highest among listed players. We maintain our EBITDA/scm assumption at INR8 for FY19 and INR7.9 for FY20. With 1HFY19 EPS at INR26.8, we maintain our FY19 EPS estimate at INR52.1.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Mahanagar Gas (MGL) reported its Q1FY19 results that were above our estimates driven by higher volumes. The topline increased 16%...

Mahanagar Gas's (MAHGL) Q1FY19 earnings beat estimates at Rs 1.3bn (+3.2% YoY, +22.5% QoQ), driven by (a) above-expected volumes of 261mmscm and (b) stronger adj. EBITDA margins of Rs 8.6/scm. CNG volume growth (+12.6% YoY) looks unsustainable as management maintained its 6-7% annual growth guidance. Though we raise FY19-FY21E earnings by 7-9% on higher margins and hence increase our DCF-based fair value to...

Our target is Rs 1,292/sh (27x Jun-20E standalone EPS). Maintain BUY. MGLs adjusted 1QFY19 revenue came in at Rs 6.32bn, up 19.1% YoY led by 12.9% YoY increase in volumes to 2.9mmscmd and higher realisations at Rs 24.2/scm (+6.4% YoY). The company has finalised the negotiations with OMCs with respect to trade discounts and accounted additional discount of Rs 129.3mn relating to period from Jan-15 to Mar-18. This has been netted off from revenue for this quarter.

1 August 2018 MGLs adjusted EBITDA of INR2.2b (+10% YoY, +27% QoQ) was ahead of our estimate of INR1.8b, led by higher-than-expected sales volume and better margins. Adjusted EBITDA/scm jumped to INR8.6 (est. of INR7.3; -2% YoY, +22% QoQ). Volume growth of 12% YoY was significantly ahead of our estimate of 6% YoY in 1QFY19. PAT grew 14% YoY (+35% QoQ) to INR1.4b, further boosted by (a) lower depreciation of INR295m (est. of INR347m; +20% YoY, -13%QoQ) and (b) lower tax rate of 32.6% v/s 34.7% in 1QFY18 and 34.3% in 4QFY18. 22% (-2% YoY) in EBITDA/scm was led by (a) two price hikes to pass on the increase in domestic gas price, (b) better pricing in the industrial segment due increased prices of alternative fuels, and (c) decline in RLNG prices during the quarter.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Mahanagar Gas (MGL) reported its Q4FY18 results that were in line with our estimates on the volume front. The topline increased 11.7% YoY to | 643.8 crore, above our estimate of | 626.5 crore on account of higher realisations. Volumes increased 6.7% YoY to 2.8 mmscmd, in line with our estimates. CNG volumes grew 6.2% YoY and were at...

Our target is Rs 1,259/sh (27x FY20E standalone EPS). Upgrade to BUY from Neutral. MGLs 4QFY18 revenue came in at Rs 5.87bn, up 11.7% YoY led by 6.7% YoY increase in volumes to 2.8mmscmd and higher realisations at Rs 23.3/scm (+4.7% YoY). EBITDA stood at Rs 1.76bn up 8% YoY. EBITDA margin was up 1.2% YoY to Rs 7/scm. APAT came in at Rs 1.05 bn (+5.5% YoY), owing to higher depreciation, which was up 32% YoY to Rs 0.34bn.

22 May 2018 4QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas MGLs EBITDA of INR1.8b (+8% YoY, -12% QoQ) was below our estimate of INR2b, led by higher cost. Maintain Mahanagar Gas Added 1 lakh new consumers in PNG-domestic, taking the cumulative number to 1.03m, implying 30% penetration of addressable market. Added 19,600 CNG vehicles in 4QFY18 (13,000 autos, 5,500 cabs), taking the total number to ~6 lakh. Added 3,000 domestic consumers in Raigad, 6-7 major towns planned this year through virtual pipelines, 5 CNG stations are operating and 3 are expected to come up soon. Two one-offs in the quarter Debit note of INR7.9cr with effect from August 2017 for Gujarat VAT adjustment to gas supplier. Adjusting for the one-offs, EBITDA/scm stood at INR7.3 in the quarter. Pressure would be primarily from INR depreciation and a rise in discount to OMCs. We expect 6%/8% volume growth for MAHGL in FY19/20.