Federal Bank Ltd. share price target

We value the stock at a Target Price of Rs 240, implying a 20% upside from the CMP, and recommend investors to BUY for the long term.

Federal Bank is steadily evolving into a high-potential challenger in India’s private banking landscape. With a well-diversified loan book across retail (33%), SME (13%), agri (3%) and corporate (28%) segments, the bank is actively reshaping its portfolio towards higher-yielding verticals including gold loans, used CVs, LAP and credit cards.

Federal Bank credit growth slowed down to 9% YoY vs 12% YoY (Q4FY25) vs 16% YoY (Q3FY25) due to reorientation of strategy towards fixed rate book. further, deposit growth declined to 8% YoY vs 12% YoY (FY25) led by term deposits. We expect credit growth at 13% CAGR (FY25-27). NIMs declined by 18bps QoQ during Q1FY26 led by decline in yields backed by repo rate cut impact. Asset quality deteriorated with GNPA at 1.91% vs 84% QoQ. NII grew by 2% YoY led by decline in NIMs; higher non-interest income (up 22% YoY) supported the operating profits (up 4% YoY). Higher provisions impacted profitability (down 15% YoY). This resulted...

Federal Bank (FB) reported 1QFY26 earnings of INR8.6b (6% miss) amid a spike in provisions (up 177% YoY/190% QoQ), partly offset by contained opex.

FB saw a soft quarter due to weaker NII/NIM and asset quality. Agri/MFI stress led to GNPA blip (provisions at 69bps vs avg. 40-45bps). Additional stress may be lower, though credit costs may remain elevated in Q2'26 due to lag effect. While FB is undergoing transition due to focus on improving asset-liability mix, there could be short term challenges due to NIM pressure and elevated credit costs. However, as earlier guided, momentum in fees was intact and asset mix improved QoQ with lower share of EBLR loans which may protect NIM. Fee...

Federal Bank (FB) has demonstrated strong business growth and is rebalancing its portfolio toward medium- and high-yielding segments like LAP, used CVs, gold loans, and credit cards to drive profitability.

We met new MD and CEO KVS Manian and Consumer Banking Head Virat Diwanji (ex-KMB), who gave assurance of their unwavering focus on addressing Federal Bank (FB)’s long-time pain point (margin) mainly via CASA acceleration.

Quarterly Update Q4FY25

FB reported a soft quarter as core PPoP at Rs12.6bn missed PLe by 11% driven by 4.2%/3.9% miss on NII/opex. However, lower provisions (led by corporate recovery) cushioned core PAT which met PLe at Rs8.7bn. In-line with its stated strategy, CA accretion was healthy QoQ. NIM may moderate as 50% of loans are EBLR linked with a T+1 reset. However, it may be cushioned by 1) shift to higher yielding segments 2) change in EBLR reset dates for new disbursals to T+90 and 3) growing fixed rate loans at a higher pace. Opex has been a drag;...

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Federal Bank (FB) reported 4QFY25 earnings of INR10.3b (12% beat) amid lower provisions and healthy other income. NII was in line, while NIM stood broadly flat (up 1bp QoQ to 3.12%), as the bank focused on reorienting its asset mix with the goal of improving yields and increasing its CASA deposits.

Q4FY25 numbers were a mixed bag. NII at Rs. 2,377 grew by 8% y-o-y/ down 2% q-o-q. Net interest margin (NIMs) were stable, improved marginally by 1 bps q-o-q to 3.12% despite spreads under pressure (down 13 bps q-o-q.

Strong growth in non-interest income was counterbalanced by weak NII and higher opex which led to ~3% sequential de-growth in core operating profits for Federal bank.

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 213/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP.

We attended the Analyst Meet hosted by Federal Bank to chalk out the strategy and growth roadmap for the bank under the new management, spearheaded by Mr KVS Manian, along with insights from other senior management team members of the bank.

MD&CEO Mr. Manian well articulated FB's medium-term strategy (FY25-28E) which includes CASA/NIM/fee expansion and opex efficiency. Branches would be re-oriented to be more customer centric and sales driven. FB aspires to be among the top pvt. sector banks by improving return ratios which would entail superior balance sheet management by focusing on profitable growth and better asset/liability mix. FY24 NIM/core RoA was 3.1%/1.1% while for larger peers it ranged between 3.5-4.9% and 1.6-2.3% suggesting that execution and...

We attended Federal Bank analyst day, where in Mr. K.V.S Manian, the recently appointed MD& CEO, presented its strategy.