DLF Ltd. share price target

We attended DLF’s Analyst Day, which included visits to several projects followed by a meeting with management.

DLF recently held an Analyst meet. Management reiterated focus on achieving DLF’s medium-term goal of execution of its INR 1,145bn GDV across its residential ongoing and upcoming/pipeline projects over the next 4–5 years.

Launch pipeline to drive sustained growth

DLF reported pre-sales of INR121b in 3QFY25, up 34% YoY/17x QoQ (2.4x our estimate; exceeds FY25 pre-sales guidance).

Lack of launches impacts bookings, pipeline remains strong

DLF reported weak pre-sales bookings of INR7b in 2QFY25 due to the lack of launches amid approval delays. The company sustains momentum in its ultra-luxury project, The Camellias, in DLF 5, with bookings of INR1.8b.

DLF reported a more than three-fold jump in pre-sales as it clocked bookings of INR64b, largely driven by the successful launch of the second phase of Privana West, Gurugram.

Strong cash flow despite higher BD, launch pipeline intensifies

DLF witnessed moderation in pre-sales to INR14.6b in 4QFY24, down 83%
YoY/84% QoQ (48% below estimate) due to the lack of key project launches. In FY24, the company achieved bookings of INR148b, flat YoY

Blockbuster quarter, launch pipeline strengthens

Healthy operating performance with margin expansion

Along expected lines, DLF clocked Q2FY24 sales bookings of INR22.3bn (up 9% YoY) driven by sales at its Camellias, Gurugram and existing inventory in new product launches. The company has retained its FY24 sales booking guidance of at least INR120-130bn which largely hinges on 3.5msf of Crest 2 luxury project launch in H2FY24 having estimated sales value of over INR100bn.

In line performance with a steady margin

Along expected lines, DLF clocked Q1FY24 sales bookings of INR20.4bn (flat YoY) driven by sales at its Camellias, Gurugram and One Midtown, Delhi project. The company has retained its FY24E sales booking guidance of at least INR120-130bn which largely hinges on 3.5msf of Crest 2 luxury project launch in H2FY24 having estimated sales value of over INR100bn.