Dish TV India Ltd. share price target

Topline netted for the content cost as pass through expense Dish TV posted Q1FY20 revenue of Rs. 926cr (vs. Rs. 1,656cr in Q1FY19). This quarter onwards, company started netting off the content cost from revenue to better reflect the new tariff regime. On comparable basis, revenue declined 7.7% YoY to Rs. 1,528cr. Subscriber revenue accounted for 89.2% of total revenue (-44.5% YoY to Rs. 826cr). Company continued to add subscribers with 209k net additions during the quarter with more than half of the net additions being HD subscribers (total subscriber base reaching 23.9mn). Management expects the subscriber revenue to pick up in the...

DITV's poor execution, governance (aggressive accounting and BS issues) and sharp swings in ARPU has already irked investors. Sharpened focus and tightened execution on subscriber quality is inevitable for sustained re-rating. Our faith has diminished in DITV as its mgmt/promoters have been unable to deliver over a long period. But, possibility of it getting acquired with mgmt change is possible. This is key. Dish TV (DITVs) 4QFY19 was significantly weak. This was led by disruption on account of new tariff order (NTO) implementation. Led by steep price correction, DITV is trading at attractive 5x FY21E EV/EBITDA. BUY with TP of Rs 51 at 7x. Stake sale by promoters for group de-leveraging is key trigger.

Overall revenues came in at | 1517.5 crore (down 4.8% YoY) much below our expectations of | 1635.1 crore, on account of subdued subscriber addition of 142,000 vs. 300,000 net additions while ARPU was at 200, down 3.8% QoQ (vs. | 211 & 2% QoQ growth expectations) with subscription revenues declining 2.8% QoQ to | 1412.6 crore (vs. expectation of 3% growth EBITDA came in at | 517.6 crore (vs. | 562.1 crore estimate) while margins came in at 34.1% vs. our expectation of 34.4% on account of...

Maintain estimate and TP of Rs 50 @ 7x Dec-20E EBITDA. Our positive view on DITV is led by its inexpensive valuations (4.5/4.3/4.1x FY19/20/21E EV/E) on negligible growth assumptions. DITVs 3QFY19 was in-line but weak. Modest subscriber additions at 142k and 3.5% QoQ decline in ARPU (2nd quarter in a row) to Rs 200 were key negatives. Performance may further weaken as Jio starts its competing Giga Fiber services.

Overall revenues came in at | 1594.3 crore (3.4% lower than our expectation), on account of 3.3% QoQ decline in ARPU vs. our expectation of 1% QoQ decline while subscriber addition was at 200,000 (vs. 250,000 expectation) EBITDA came in at | 540.6 crore (vs. | 565.9 crore expectation) while...

We have reduce our revenue est by 3-6% and EBITDA by 4-11% for FY19-21 to factor Dish's consistent disappointments and impending risk from Jio especially post the acquisitions of leading MSOs. We reduce our target multiple from 9x to 7x Sep-20E EV/EBITDA. Our revised TP is Rs 56. In 2QFY19, Dish TVs (DITV) weak subscriber additions (200k vs. est of 275k) and 3.4% QoQ decline in ARPU to Rs 207 were key negatives. This is even when Jio hasnt started its services. Revenue declined 3.7% QoQ to Rs 15.9bn (est Rs 16.4bn) and EBITDA 2.9% to Rs 5.4bn (est 5.5bn).

Dish TV reported strong performance on subscription revenue owing to (i) Price hikes across majority of the packages (ii) Lower discounts at package level (iii) Higher share of HD subscribers in net additions. The subscriber additions also picked up during the sports heavy quarter and also on festivities. Subscription revenues stood at | 1489.3 crore, which was up by 8.1% QoQ attributable to strong performance at ARPU level i.e 6.5% QoQ growth to |214 (vs our expectation of 2% QoQ growth). Subscriber...

BUY with a TP of Rs 99 (9x Jun-20E EV/E). Dish TV (DITV) reported a healthy 8% QoQ revenue growth. This was led by 6.5% ARPU growth on account of higher HD contribution, lower discounts and price increases across recharge packs. Led by robust revenue growth, EBITDA adjusted for one-time merger expenses in 4QFY18 increased by 20.9% (reported 39%).

opex declined by 2.9% qoq (up 2.5% qoq adjusted for one-time cost of Rs600mn in Q4FY18), but 6% higher than our estimate. Strong Q1FY19 performance sets positive momentum, as major benefits of cost synergies from merger would reflect in the coming quarters. We continue to highlight that consistency in performance is key due to past baggage of underperformance. We raise EBITDA estimates by 4%/2% for FY19/20E, driven by higher ARPU assumptions. Cable TV distribution companies have corrected significantly with JIO's announcement to launch JIO Fibre and JIO TV while Dish TV has been stable due to ongoing open offer....

10 July 2018 After witnessing a weak performance over the last few quarters, Dish TV (DITV) post its merger with Videocon rebounded strongly in 1QFY19. Subscription revenue grew 8% QoQ to INR14.9b, driven by steady 7% QoQ ARPU growth, leading to 8% QoQ growth in consol. EBITDA grew by a robust 39% QoQ to INR5.6b (27% beat), led by revenue growth and 3% QoQ opex savings. merger one-off costs of INR0.6b in 4QFY18) rose 21% QoQ. EBITDA margin expanded 750bp QoQ to 33.6%.

We maintain our BUY rating on Dish TV and revise our TP to Rs94 (8x FY20E EV/EBIDTA) for the merged entity. While the quarterly performance was disappointing with mere 0.2mn net subscriber addition and 5% sequential decline in revenue, overall results are not comparable. We believe the operating performance would improve significantly on merger synergies, regulatory tailwinds and economic uptick. We believe execution would be the key going forward for the management with merger being completed. Undemanding valuations, Rs37bn...

Our positive view on DITV is on account of its inexpensive valuations (8.5/7.3x FY19/20E EV/E) BUY with a TP of Rs 97 (9x FY20E EV/E). Dish TV (DITV) reported merged financials including Videocon D2H (VD2H) w.e.f. 1st Oct17. 4QFY18 numbers were marginally weak. Revenue was at Rs 15.3bn (-5% QoQ) and adjusted EBITDA at Rs 4.6bn (-7% QoQ). ARPU declined 5% QoQ to Rs 201.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Dish TV reported its Q4FY18 financials post consolidation with Videocon D2H (with effect from Q3FY18). Thus, quarterly numbers are not comparable with our estimates. The combined entity subscription revenues were at | 1377.1 crore, down 4.6% QoQ on a like-to-like basis, partly attributable to lower number of days in the quarter and partly to continued down trading. The company, under new subscriber accounting policy, reported a net subscriber base at...

Dish TV's monthly ARPU's came in at | 144 (declined by 3.1% QoQ vs our expectation of 2.0% QoQ growth), resulting in lower than estimated subscription revenues of | 692.8 crore (versus estimates of | 728.9 crore). The subscriber addition at 250K, was in line with our estimates. Closing net subscriber base stood at 16.1 million at the end of the quarter. The overall revenues came in at | 740.8 crore, below...

Dish TV India Ltd Q2FY18 results comment Revenue increased by 6.82% to Rs. 472.45 Cr in Q2FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it fell by 7.73% when compared with Q2FY17.

The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB) has approved the merger of DishTV (DITV) and Videocon D2H (VD2H), paving the way for their combined operations. We expect the combined entity to derive synergies of INR2.4b in FY19 and INR4b inFY20. Also refer our note dated September 25, 2017 for details on merger synergies. DI TV's ARPU has remained sluggish in the last few quarters partly due to high competitive intensity. We expect gradual improvement in ARPU, with the effects of demonetization waning, HD contribution rising, LCOs becoming increasingly tax compliant and competitive intensity reducing. The stock is trading at an EV of 6x FY19E and 4.6x FY20E EBITDA if we factor merger synergies of INR2.4b in FY19 and INR4b in FY20 ( 50 % below management's estimates). We remain positive on DITV, with a TP of INR106 (8x FY19E EBITDA ofINR26.5b including merger synergies of INR2.4b).

Dish TV (DITV) is poised to benefit from synergies with Videocon D2H (D2H) as: (a) content cost will get aligned D2H's per sub content cost is 20-25% higher than DITV, (b) lower overheads, given duplication of service centers, admin etc.

Dish TV's (DITV's) Q2 performance was stable QoQ. Net subscriber addition stood at 0.18 mn (0.19 mn in Q1), while ARPU inched up to Rs 149 (Rs 148 in Q1). Content costs were flat QoQ, which coupled with lower overheads (down 15%), aided 6% QoQ rise in EBITDA (EBITDA margin at ~29%).

Dish TV's monthly ARPU came in at | 149 (up 0.7% QoQ), resulting in subscription revenues of | 704.9 crore (vs. estimate of | 699.9 crore). The subscriber addition was largely in line at 188,000 (our estimate 182,000) with a net subscriber base at 15.9 million at the end of the quarter. Overall revenues at | 748.6 crore were slightly below our estimates of | 753.9 crore, owing to lower other operating revenues EBITDA came in at | 216.1 crore vs. our expectation of | 218.9 crore,...

BUY with a TP of Rs 102. Our TP is based on pro-forma financials of the merged operations, and factors in Rs 2bn p.a. of synergy benefits. Dish TV (DITV) reported modest 2QFY18 numbers. Revenue was at Rs 7.5bn (+1.3% QoQ, -4% YoY) and EBITDA at Rs 2.16bn (+7.4% QoQ, -18% YoY). Broadly flat ARPU at Rs 149 QoQ and increase in operating expenses were key negatives in 2QFY18. Our positive view on DITV despite weak performance is derived from its inexpensive valuations (9.2/8.1x FY19/20E EV/E for merged operations without synergy), synergies from the merger with VD2H and digitisation.