Coal India Ltd. share price target

Coal India Ltd Q3FY18 results comment Revenue increased by 18.48% to Rs. 20708.47 Cr in Q3FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it rose by 5.3% when compared with Q3FY17.

Other income was down 21% to Rs 840.86 crore, thus, the PBIDT inclined 10% to Rs 5458.71 crore. The Company interest cost fell 12% to Rs 97.44 crore, while depreciation cost grew 7% to Rs 751.06 crore. Thus, the Profit before Tax (PBT) grew 11% to Rs 4610.21 crore. The net Tax Expense for the quarter rose by 26% to Rs 1605.19 crore. The effective tax rate for the quarter increased 420 bps to 34.8%. Thus, PAT before EO and minority interest gained 4% to Rs 3005.02 crore. After accounting loss of Rs 0.23 crore in shares in JV's/associates, Net...

Coal India reported a healthy set of Q3FY18 numbers. The performance was driven by higher e-auction volumes/realisations and lower operating cost. The topline came in line with our estimates while the EBITDA and PAT came in above our estimates The company reported a sales volume of 151.7 million tonne (MT) (up 6.3% YoY, 15.3% QoQ). The FSA volume during the quarter came in at 121.9 MT (up 7.9% YoY, 16.5% YoY). The FSA realisation was at | 1182/tonne (down 8.3% YoY, 3.4% QoQ). The e-auction volume...

Coal India's (COAL) 3QFY18 revenue grew ~6% YoY to INR216b (2% miss) on~7% YoY growth in offtake. FSA realization at INR1,182/t (down 8% YoY / 3%QoQ) missed our estimate of INR1,249/t, which we believe is due to lower dispatches to non-power customers (these fetch a premium). Preference was given to the power sector due to spike in demand. E-auction realization surprised positively, increasing 24% QoQ to INR1,998/t (our estimate:INR1,800/t), which finally reflected the rising price trend for 6-8 months. Adjusted EBITDA (ex-OBR) increased 19% YoY to INR55.4b (in-line) aided by slightly lower cost of production. Though we are keeping overall estimates unchanged, we have increased e- auction prices at the cost of FSA realization, accounting for temporary priority to the power sector

Coal India (CIL) has changed its pricing policy and has rationalized prices across grades, resulting in an average price hike of c. 9%. This is expected to increase revenue by Rs64bn annually (Rs19.5bn for remaining part of FY18). This move will fully offset the adverse impact of wage revision. However, post the price hike, Coal prices (ex-inland transportation cost) are still 50-60% cheaper compared to...

Coal India's offtake volumes posted healthy growth of 7.6% YoY in 9MFY18 (April-December). Offtake volumes during the period were at 421.4 million tonne (MT) vs. 391.5 MT a year ago. Sales volume growth took place amid tepid production growth of 1.7% YoY in 9MFY18. On the back of traction witnessed in coal sales offtake, we maintain our coal sales volume estimate of 580 MT for FY18E and 625 MT for FY19E. We expect e-auction volumes to come in at 100 MT for both FY18E and FY19E....

Despite a steep increase in cost on account of the wage hike, we expect adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 15 % to INR197b over FY17-19. Growth in EBITDA is driven by annual volume growth of 7 %, operating leverage and other operating income. EPS is expected to increase at a CAGR of 18 % to INR20.7/share over FY17-19.At 90 % payout, the dividend yield will be 6 % at CMP. Concerns around grade slippage, e-auction price decline, deceleration in volume growth and wage hikes are now behind. Volume growth is accelerating,which will also drive operating leverage gains. Various cost initiatives like closing of underground mines, VRS and overtime compensation can drive upside to our estimates. The stock trades attractive at 6.8x FY19E EV/EBITDA. The TP is INR335/share.based on 8x FY19E EV/EBITDA. Buy.

Off-take & Realisation to Improve on Likely Demand Revival In line with our estimate, consolidated net sales of Coal India (CIL) rose by 4.2% YoY to Rs181bn in 2QFY18 driven by higher coal off-take (+13.6% YoY), which was off-set by 8.2% YoY fall in average realisation. Despite 56.7% YoY surge in EBITDA to Rs12.3bn led by higher volume, higher e-auction prices and lower operating cost, its PAT fell by 39.8% YoY to Rs3.6bn. Looking ahead, we expect CIL's RoE & RoCE would improve on the back of higher realisation, improvement in margins and optimum utilisation of assets. Expecting meaningful revival in demand, we...

Coal India Ltd Q2FY18 results comment Revenue fell by 5.03% to Rs. 17478.52 Cr in Q2FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it increased by 11.92% when compared with Q2FY17.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Coal India reported a mixed set of Q2FY18 numbers wherein the topline came in line with our estimate while reported EBITDA, PAT came in below our estimate. Reported EBITDA, PAT came in below our estimate on the back of higher-than-expected employee cost provision and lower-than-expected other income Coal India reported sales volume of 131.6 million tonne (MT) (up 14% YoY) while blended realisation was at | 1331/tonne (flattish QoQ). FSA...