Castrol India Ltd. share price target

Castrol’s 4QCY25 EBITDA/reported PAT missed our estimates by 10%/17%. Volume grew 8% YoY to 63.7m lit and EBITDA margin contracted 230bp YoY.

Castrol India's performance was broadly in-line with our expectations. Castrol's sales increased by 6% YoY, led by 8% YoY volume growth on the back of strong volume growth in the industrials segment (double digit) and CV segment. EBITDA declined by 2% YoY to Rs3.7bn, with EBITDA margin contracting by 222bps YoY to 25.5%, dragged due to increase in share of industrial segment (low margin, high volume), forex volatility and cost inflation. The Management remains focused on expanding the distribution network and deepening penetration in the Industrials segment and high margin CV segment deriving...

Castrol India's performance was broadly in-line with our expectations. Castrol's sales increased by 6% YoY, led by 9% YoY volume growth on the back of strong volume growth in the industrials segment (double digit) and CV segment (+8% YoY), while Personal Mobility grew 6% YoY. EBITDA increased by 13% YoY to Rs3.2bn, with EBITDA margin expanding by 148bps YoY to 23.7%, primarily aided by a fall in base oil prices and forex volatility, showcasing strong cost management. The Management remains focused on expanding the distribution network and deepening penetration in the Industrials segment and high margin...

Castrol (CSTRL)’s 3QCY25 performance was in line. EBITDA margin expanded 150bp YoY/30bp QoQ. Volumes were in line at 59m liters (up 7% YoY).

Market Leadership: Largest private lubricant player with 220 million liters installed capacity and 20% market share in the automotive segment. Multinational parentage with technology leadership: Backed by BP Plc, Castrol leverages global expertise, advanced formulations, and continuous innovation to sustain its market leadership. Well-entrenched distribution and marketing capabilities: 400+...

Castrol India's revenue and EBITDA exceeded our expectations. Castrol's sales increased by 7% YoY, led by 8% YoY volume growth on the back of strong volume growth in the industrials segment (+13% YoY) and rural geographies (+12% YoY). Personal Mobility and CVs reported high single digit volume growth. EBITDA increased by 8% YoY to Rs3.5bn, with EBITDA margin expanding by 28bps YoY to 23.4%, primarily due to lower A&P spends and price hikes. Management remain focused on expanding the distribution network and deepening penetration in the Industrials segment. Castrol has gained 40bps...

Castrol’s 4QCY24 EBITDA was a beat on our estimate, as the EBITDA margin came in at 27.8% (our est: 21.7%). The 4Q volumes were in line at 59m lit.

Castrol’s (CSTRL) revenue grew 9% YoY to INR13b in 3QCY24, driven by 8% YoY volume growth. EBITDA margin stood at 22.2%.

Castrol’s (CSTRL) revenue grew 2% YoY to INR13.3b in 1QCY24, driven by 5%
YoY growth in volumes; however, EBITDA margin declined to 22.2%, mainly
due to higher raw material cost and other expenses during the quarter.