Zydus Lifesciences Ltd. share price target

Cadila Healthcare (CDH) posted in-line 3QFY21 results, led by a superior performance in India/EM, partly offset by a dip in US sales. CDH is progressing well on NCE programs and developing complex injectables. It is not only working on developing a vaccine for COVID but is also building...

Q3 operational performance was mostly in line with I-direct estimates (albeit skewed) led by strong domestic formulations growth, whereas profitability was higher due to lower interest cost and tax rate. On the US front, the company plans to venture into complex injectables (71 filed ANDAs), which is likely to provide meaningful traction from FY23-24 onwards. Similarly, addition of biosimilars (like Trastuzumab, Adalimumab, Pegfilgrastim, Bevacizumab, etc) for Emerging markets (like LatAm, MENA markets, South East Asia) are expected to provide growth impetus, going ahead. The...

Cadila Healthcare is India's leading vertically integrated pharmaceutical company. With its presence across the value chain, it manufactures finished dosage forms, active pharmaceutical ingredients, animal healthcare...

Solid presence in the chronic and sub-chronic segments (which are the key growth drivers for Indian pharmaceutical markets) and an improving outlook for the acute segment provide ample growth visibility for India business Easing pricing pressures, sturdy new product pipeline, and ramp up in the recent product launches would be key growth drivers going ahead for the US business. Strong growth prospects, sturdy balance sheet, and healthy return ratios would...

Q2 revenues were above I-direct estimates on all fronts due to better than expected operational performance and lower interest expense. On the US front, the company plans to venture into complex injectables (69 filed ANDAs), which is likely to provide meaningful traction from FY23-24 onwards. Similarly, addition of biosimilars (like Trastuzumab, Adalimumab, Pegfilgrastim, Bevacizumab, etc) for Emerging markets (like LatAm, MENA markets and South East Asia) are expected to provide growth impetus, going ahead. The wellness segment performance hinges upon Cadila's...

Cadila reported an in-line 2Q driven by strong growth across India, US and the API segment offsetting the muted growth in consumer segment. Revenue grew 16% YoY, an improved product mix (double digit growth in India formulations and US sales at $230mn, up $13mn QoQ) led to healthy gross margins at 64.9%. Impact of MEIS offset lower marketing spends, thereby, restricting EBITDA margins at 22.6%. Adjusting for the one-time charge of Rs1.3bn, for NCD purchase and forex loss, PAT grew 63% YoY at Rs6.2bn. Cadila strengthened its balance sheet by reducing debt of Rs27bn...

Cadila continues to bear heavy debt and high intangible assets from FY19 (acquisition of Heinz by its subsidiary Zydus Wellness). Hence, total intangibles remain high at Rs68bn, 65% of net worth, mainly due to the surge in goodwill from Rs14bn to Rs53bn in FY19 and Rs54bn in FY20. Other findings: i) Currency translation loss (FCTR) shot up by Rs4.3bn, out of which Rs2.8bn impacted cash flow. iii) Other operating income and other income together flared up to Rs10bn, 67% of PBT (FY19: 45% of PBT). iv) The cash tax rate lowered from 28% to 16% in FY20, whereas the...

Outlook & Valuation: We reduce our Revenues for FY21E/FY22E by 1.4%/1.5% in FY21E/FY22E due to downgrade in domestic formulations and Consumer Wellness.

COVID related products to share more focus in FY21E. 1QFY21 revenue was in-line with our estimate but EBITDA and EBITDAM were beat due to decline of SG&A; 17% YoY. We believe its foray into COVID related products has diverted its focus from core business when its top revenue contributors (India, US Gx) have been lacking consistency. With HCQ already...

US (44% of FY20 revenues) grew at ~12% CAGR in FY16-20 backed by aggressive filings, product launches. Launch of authorised generics also contributed to overall growth. US pipeline (cumulative) consists of 390+ filed ANDAs, 95 pending final approvals. However, resurfacing of cGMP issues at Moraiya, imminent slowdown in base are main near term...