Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. share price target

BPCL has demonstrated resilient financial performance, driven by strong refining performance, a growing gas business and strategic expansion plans. The revival of the Mozambique project and investment in the City Gas Distribution (CGD) business are positive developments. While the company's margin and pricing strategy will be crucial in navigating the volatile crude oil market, its significant capital expenditure...

Marketing inventory gain for Q4FY25 at Rs5.23bn Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better-than-expected Q4FY25 results with EBITDA of Rs77.6bn (up 2.4% QoQ, PLe: Rs35.7bn, BBGe: Rs57.9bn). Adj PAT came in at Rs45.5bn (down 2.1% QoQ, PLe: Rs14.1bn, BBGe: Rs25.2bn). The company reported an exceptional item of Rs17.7bn due to impairment loss in its WOS subsidiary BPRL. GRM stood at US$9.2/bbl while GMM as per our calculation came in at Rs5.9/ltr. While GMM on petrol/diesel has risen to...

BPCL delivered a 46% beat on EBITDA in 4QFY25, driven by higher-than-estimated GRM (USD9.2/bbl) and marketing margins (INR5.9/lit; INR 0.3/lit due to inventory gain).

BPCL’s Q4FY25 performance was much better than expected. SA EBITDA/APAT was down 15%/18% YoY to Rs78.1/45.5bn, albeit at a significant beat, driven by reported GRM of USD9.2/bbl (Emkay: USD6/bbl).

BPCL’s reported 3QFY25 financial performance was largely in line with our expectations, as weaker-than-expected refining performance was offset by robust marketing margins.

BPCL posted better than expected performance in Q1FY25. SA EBITDA/APAT fell 40-45% QoQ each to Rs56.5/30.1bn, but was a 19%/35% beat.

Q1 normalisation in line with consensus. Underlying fuel margin surprised on upside. Timing of compensation for LPG loss uncertain

BPCL’s reported GRM came in 27% below our est. at USD12.5/bbl in
4QFY24, while implied marketing margin came in 67% above our est. at
INR5.7/lit. Overall EBITDA was below our estimate due to weaker-than expected refining performance and impairment charge of INR18b in 4Q.

BPCL clocked Q4FY24 EBITDA/APAT of Rs92.7/55.7bn – a sizable 17-18% beat each, driven by higher-than-expected implied marketing margin of ~Rs7/kg (at a 16% beat).

BPCL reported a strong Q1FY24 with EBITDA of INR 149.6bn and recurring PAT of INR 99.2bn, up 34%/32% QoQ respectively, and materially ahead of the operating loss of Rs59bn and net loss of INR 62.9bn in Q1FY23 (I-Sec: EBITDA INR 107bn, PAT INR 66.3bn).

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported an impressive 2.6x / 3.5x YoY jump in its standalone adjusted-EBITDA / PAT (up 2.6x / 3.8x QoQ) to Rs111.5bn / Rs75bn respectively, well ahead of our estimates of Rs52.3bn EBITDA and Rs34.4bn PAT.